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Post by harryx1 on Aug 26, 2015 15:35:41 GMT -5
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Post by mssciguy on Aug 26, 2015 16:19:46 GMT -5
"the stock where tomorrow never arrives" on seeking alpha--- trash, will not even link to it here...
BUT look at this comment
sugar doc
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I write the drug, I review the results of patients with significantly lower HBA1c levels, lower than they could have ever achieved without Afrezza and I listen to them tell me how much better they feel with Afrezza!
Bashers , Pumpers and bloggers are all missing one part of the ever so important equation, " patient contact".
With that said, keep in mind, Afrezza is a game changer for the diabetic population!
I anxiously await the so called formal launch and can assure you this drug is bigger than u could ever imagine!!!
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Post by Chris-C on Aug 26, 2015 16:24:24 GMT -5
I'd call this a fairly well balanced article. His valuation did not include any potential developments with other Technosophere applications; but it would be pointless to speculate on what those might be worth to the company. I was surprised (disappointed) that he projected EU approval in 2017. I was hoping it might occur earlier. |
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Post by peppy on Aug 26, 2015 16:48:50 GMT -5
the articles are getting better and better. a physician. I liked his point on dtc marketing. it is the patient that may push the insurer here. I have never bought the line; diabetics do not want to change, they are used to the shots. quote; Looking At Afrezza
Mannkind’s (MNKD) Afrezza is a convenience product, a luxury version of insulin, if you will, for those who prefer not to take insulin as an injectable or with a pump, a catheter stuck under the skin. Though the debate rages on, there is no consensus on whether it is more, or less, effective – or even safer – than injected insulin.
However, according to an FDA document, “One-third of all health care providers report that their insulin-using patients are concerned about their injections; a similar number of people …report dreading them. Lack of compliance … is a problem in both T1DM (type 1 diabetes mellitus) and T2DM patients, as noted by frequent dose restriction or frank omission of insulin injections.”
THEN:
Why hasn’t Afrezza sold well?
Here we have a product that is as good as SoC, but more convenient to use. How do we sell this product? Certainly not by approaching physicians; most I know don’t worry about patient convenience as long as the treatment works – a little detachment is actually the hallmark of a good physician. Indeed, it is less convenient for them than injectable insulin because they have to learn spirometry, face the risks of learning it wrong, or send patients to a GP to get spirometry done. No, doctors certainly don’t find that convenient.
Patients, on the other hand, cetaris paribus, will certainly find inhalers more convenient than a needle, however small. Now, how do we sell a convenience product? By approaching those to whom the product is more convenient – the patient, the consumer. The DTC (direct to consumer) marketing approach, therefore, has a good chance of working. Unfortunately, companies only do DTC 6 or more months after launch, so DTC has only just been started by Sanofi (SNY), MannKind’s partner, this month.
That is the main reason Afrezza hasn’t sold well so far.
================================================================================================== Alrighty then, game is on.
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Post by compound26 on Aug 26, 2015 17:14:08 GMT -5
I'd call this a fairly well balanced article. His valuation did not include any potential developments with other Technosophere applications; but it would be pointless to speculate on what those might be worth to the company. I was surprised (disappointed) that he projected EU approval in 2017. I was hoping it might occur earlier. Agree that this is a pretty balanced article (referring to the article "MannKind And Afrezza: Can The Drug Cure The Company?MannKind And Afrezza: Can The Drug Cure The Company?"). His valuation appears to be off as he assumes a profit margin of 20% and then Mannkind getting 35%. So it's kind of like assuming Mannkind is getting about a 7% royalty. I recall Mannkind has always maintained that the deal is equivalent to Mannkind getting about a mid-20 percentage (i.e., around 25%) royalty. So if Mannkind is correct about the actual profit margin, the actual valuation may be about 3.5 times of his calculation/estimate. |
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Aug 26, 2015 18:32:03 GMT -5
Actually, I have a problem with the assessment of formulary coverage. Unfortunately, I can't see how the current state justifies projecting 80% coverage. Unless formularylookup.com is flat wrong, we haven't really seen any meaningful amount of plans improve coverage for months. One assumption in that SA article seems to strike be a wishful thinking, which is to assume that just because one plan with a particular payer covers Afrezza that all the other plans through them will also necessarily do so. From my understanding, various companies or organizations like unions might have specific "cadilac" plans with an insurer or PBM where they agree to pay more to have all drugs well covered. This may be no indication at all that these same insurers/PBMs will generally cover the drug for more mainstream plans.
I'd love to be convinced otherwise. Does anyone really understand where this optimistic view of formulary coverage is coming from?
I think we will eventually have great formulary coverage because I think Afrezza is a game changer, but I think the current situation of coverage is on the shorts' side, not the longs.
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Post by benyiju on Aug 26, 2015 19:55:59 GMT -5
Article link tweeted by CafePharma: |
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