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Post by biotec on Dec 23, 2013 9:42:41 GMT -5
Well It would be nice for some information from Mannkind so we would have something to talk about! I dont see any info until after the new years, Its the holidays and many are on vacation. Also I think if we dont hear anything about a partner until after the FDA approval Its more likely we will hear about a buyout. Who here would be happy with a 10bil buyout?
jmo
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Post by savzak on Dec 23, 2013 12:22:10 GMT -5
A $10B buyout would certainly beautify my portfolio. It would be difficult for me to say I'd be "disappointed" with such an increase in my account value. But on balance, I think $10B would be underselling the company given its potential. A $10B price tag for Afrezza alone, spun off into a new company would be much more palatable to me. Current shareholders would get the cash payment for Afrezza and keep thier MNKD shares. Mannkind would continue to control technosphere.
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Post by rak5555 on Dec 23, 2013 12:37:57 GMT -5
Keep in mind, no news regarding 74 Day Letter is good news. Hakan said that if the letter is in line with management's expectations there would be no PR; however, if there are any surprises, they would issue a PR.
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Post by liane on Dec 23, 2013 12:40:24 GMT -5
I agree with savzak; my portfolio would be much prettier with a $10B buyout. What I'm thinking I would like to see more would be a tender offer for a percentage of shares - say $15 per share. The share price gets an instant boost, and if you like your shares, you can keep your shares (and wait for true valuation in a few years).
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Post by liane on Dec 23, 2013 12:51:12 GMT -5
Keep in mind, no news regarding 74 Day Letter is good news. Hakan said that if the letter is in line with management's expectations there would be no PR; however, if there are any surprises, they would issue a PR. rak - Are you feeling OK? - You look a bit green today. |
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Post by otherottawaguy on Dec 23, 2013 13:25:24 GMT -5
Ladies & Gents:
I keep hearing thing $10B buyout and how it would make us all happy. Please count me out of this group thought as I would be sorely disappointed with a mere 10. At current sharecount (400M ish) that would be only $25 per share. This I feel is a very short sighted goal when one considers down the raod what the potential this company has in the Diabetes space and others. Disregarding the "a bird in hand is better than 2 in the bush", I am looking for something in the low tripple digits before I consider selling the remainder. See my models in the library for FDA Decision Date +1 thru 10 years to see what I really think is possible.
Don't accept the crumbs while someone else gets the sandwich.
OOG
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Post by babaoriley on Dec 23, 2013 13:48:07 GMT -5
OOG, I really hope you can throw this post in my face over and over again two or three years from now, but I would be ecstatic with such a buyout while the stock is anywhere south of $15, which means I would be beyond ecstatic if the stock is anywhere near what it is today. This will not happen, public companies do not get bought out for four or five times their current market cap, well, maybe maybe once in every very long while, but no, can't see it.
rak, like you, I'm waiting on this 74 day letter deal before doing any more trading. Perhaps if no NR by end of next week, it may be safe to sell some more puts, but right now, I can imagine a ding to our share price if a panel, for example is announced, which will no doubt bring with it a nice article or two!
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Post by jpg on Dec 23, 2013 17:51:40 GMT -5
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Post by babaoriley on Dec 23, 2013 18:53:16 GMT -5
jpg, I don't think the above is significant in terms of being bad or new. Simply a contractual obligation of MNKD to register those shares. Now, what Deerfield does with the shares once issued to them, that may be significant!
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Post by spiro on Dec 23, 2013 19:10:29 GMT -5
OOG,
I believe your analysis is very solid. A $10 billion buyout at this late stage is nonsense. For a company to even consider offering $10 billion for Afrezza, that would mean that they have reached the same conclusion as BeyondProxy and believe that Afrezza will in fact become a monster selling drug. Baborliley, Al Mann could not possibly be dumb enough to sell a future $15 - $20 billion a year drug for only $10 billion. I say sealed bids, with bidding starting at $50 billion. OK, so this is not going to happen. But, $400 million upfront for a 40% share of Afrezza, etc, etc sure is better than a major pharma losing out on Afrezza. As I said in a previous post, I would not want to be one of the losing CEO's in these negotiations, should Afrezza become this monster drug.
Merry Christmas and/or Happy Holidays to everyone, see you soon in Nirvana, or maybe not…...
Spiro
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Post by jpg on Dec 24, 2013 1:03:05 GMT -5
Babaoriley,
I don't think this is bad. Seeing Deerfield convert 11.5 million (near the max they can convert at this price) would be amazing. This would logically only happen if Deerfield knows or believes big positive news is coming.
I just don't think this document says they converted? Only that if they do they can sell what they converted. Why doesn't it say 12 million shares though as per their original agreement?
Hopefully I just don't read or understand SEC legal speak well...
Any other interpretations of all this?
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Post by babaoriley on Dec 24, 2013 2:08:15 GMT -5
Spiro, I love your spirit! I wish I could be as optimistic as you, and I'm not only talking about MNKD stock! But, with respect to MNKD stock, a $15 to $20 buyout in the next several months would be heaven for me!!
jpg, you are correct, this document does not say that Deerfield has converted; it just talks about MNKD fulfilling its obligation to register the shares. It appears to me, however, that Deerfield does intend to convert, and I certainly hope they do and that they hold the shares thereafter through April 15! The price is determined based on the average of the 20 most recent trading days, right? So if that's the case, perhaps Deerfield is expecting some news that will cause the stock to rise and therefore, they want to convert now and take advantage of a $5 price, rather than a higher price which would result from positive, share-price moving news. If the foregoing is correct, then I would assume that expected news would be a partnership (or perhaps a buyout, but unlikely. Gosh, I hope so, will make all the difference going into the days leading up to April 15.
My only advice is, don't be greedy if we get a partnership and a nice price rise into first part of April (don't forget, FDA could always surprise us by giving us an early answer). I'm pretty sure most everyone here would make a whole lot of money with 75% of their current holdings if things went as the many optimists on this board believe they will. We need a well-received partnership and we need investors not to believe the crap that will be written about it within hours after it is made public!
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Post by nemzter on Dec 24, 2013 14:23:59 GMT -5
As some have already mentioned, Gilead bought Pharmasset for $11B, a phase 2 drug and smaller market than Afrezza.
Al will not sell for less than 20B, and if he does, I will still be happy regardless.
GLTA and happy holidays!!
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