Interesting Claim

[rak5555]

I'm sure most of you have seen this by now, but just in case, take a look at thread on ymb titled "Mannkind partnership will not happen"

[liane]

Interesting thread. I try not to let my hopes get too stratospheric. OTOH, Mike does know Al's son and has been a long term reliable poster on YMB.

[biotec]

Like I said before, If no partnership by FDA decision then I think a buyout is going to happen. I just started reading YMB, I dont know anything about Mike, But seems hard to believe he hangs out with Al's son. It sounds fishy to me. Also 20-30 pps I would hope for a better deal, Because a buyout would be all Mannkinds pipeline and techphere rights (most likely thats what BP wants). I would love to see 60-80 pps, But we all would. I love dreaming lol. With a 20-25 pps I would have a 3 bagger ($8 average for me), Not bad but everyone always is looking for the big one.

Bio

[rtccpa]

Dec 28, 2013 17:57:35 GMT -5 liane said:

Interesting thread. I try not to let my hopes get too stratospheric. OTOH, Mike does know Al's son and has been a long term reliable poster on YMB.

"...........has been a long term reliable poster on YMB."


Didn't realize there was such a thing!

[babaoriley]

Mike may well be Al's son's friend, but that doesn't mean what Mike posted is either in good faith, or, if it is in good faith (as Rak suspects), correct. My understanding is that Al's son does like to gamble, and I'm pretty sure he's gambled heavily in MNKD and MINIMED, etc. And I'm pretty sure he hasn't always won, and he may have had to go to Big Daddy to get bailed out of such things once or twice (speculation on my part, but not totally woven from whole cloth). And posting on the yahoo board? Like rak pointed out over there, why do that and place friendships in jeopardy, etc.

That said, it could happen, cuz anything could happen, and a sale is not in any way far-fetched. Any buyout would of course be contingent on an approval, and it would be extremely interesting to see the what the share price did. Example, buyout contingent on approval by end of April, price $20 upon approval; approval by May 2015, $17.50; deal terminates thereafter. What would the price be if that were announced Monday morning? $12? $15, surely not much more than $15.

A company may well be willing to buy MNKD at a significant premium prior to approval and contingent upon approval, because those in the purchasing company might convince the board/shareholders that with the approval, the upside is fantastic.

I'd take a $15 contingent offer while the price is around $5; although $20 would make me much happier!

Finally, assuming Mike's post is not in good faith, what's the reason for it? Does he have a feeling that partnership negotiations will fail, and he needs a nice spike in price in the next little while? Or is it just a guess based on an inference that someone objective would not consider well-supported? Or does he just want to show he's in the know if correct, and the whole thing will be forgotten if he's wrong.

Those wanting to bet Mike better be careful about the choice of law to govern the contracts that these people's lawyers are apparently ready to "draw up." Good chance such a contract would be unenforceable, even if the law of the jurisdiction chosen allows such wagers. Depends on in what jurisdiction you attempt to enforce the contract (and, oh yes, the losing party WILL claim that the contract is null and void as a "gambling contract.") Windfalls are hard to come by in this world! That applies to grand sums made in developmental biotech as well!! LOL

[spiro]

Babaoriley,

I think you may have low expectations syndrome. You remind me a little of OPC, on the YMB. For you to conclude that MNKD is worth so little, then one could think, that you obviously have not reached the same conclusion as BeyondProxy, Joe Springer, George Rho  and others, on Afrezza's potential. I do not think Greenhill would have gotten involved, if their D.D. showed similar expectations to yours. If one truly believes that the buyout value of MNKD is only $12 -$15, considering the high rate of  failure in biotech' stocks, it would not be prudent to risk funds in MNKD, at this time.  I personally would not risk my funds, without having much greater expectations. Selling is even more advisable, if you are currently sitting on a profit with your MNKD holdings and have such low expectations. 

JMHO,

Spiro

[liane]

I think we all get hung up on the current share price - which has been highly manipulated. So at a $5 share price, it seems a big leap to buy out at $20, $30, or even $50. I have long said a buyout at this time could very realistically be in the $10B to $20B range which would give an approximate s/p of $25 - $50. I base this on sales of companies such as Pharmassett for $11B - at a time PhIII not even done and a much smaller potential patient population. I personally think MNKD is worth far more than $20B, but don't know if any BP will pay that prior to a year or two of sales. Now $15 per share - in my mind, that gets you a buy-in of perhaps 20% of the company - but not a buy-out.

Hopefully, we'll all know something soon!

[babaoriley]

Spiro, if there's one person on earth I'm not like, it's OPC, and if I remind you of OPC, then I have failed miserably in trying to get my message across! You do know how to hurt a guy, though!

I like Al Mann and management just fine. Also, I think you're somewhat mistaken on the current viability of the investment in MNKD. We are not the only people that think approval is a foregone conclusion, many think that very thing, and others think that although not a slam dunk, there's a very, very good chance for approval, geez, we were close enough last time until Martin S. wrote his infamous letter! Under those conditions, a triple from $5 isn't all that bad at all. I don't know what the overall odds are for FDA approval on the first go round, second go round and now third go round, but my guess is that objectively, MNKD has a far better chance for approval than the average bear (that "bear" would be Yogi and not a downward moving market, lest I be misinterpreted). To me, that means that by the time the PDUFA date draws near, a good part of the value of the approval will be baked into the price; so, for example, if we get to $12 around April 10 (assuming FDA doesn't surprise us with an early response), I don't see anything near a double from there. I believe we need the partnership before April to get us to $12 to $15 pre-PDUFA, with a nice bump post approval, perhaps to $20.

With no partnership, I'd say, all other things being equal, we get to around $8 pre-PDUFA, with a nice bump to $11 with an approval, which will be short-lived as the attacks will start before the ink is dry on the approval. Those attacks will not be without substance, either, unless a partnership is announced almost simultaneously with approval. Either with a partner or without, we are going to be seeing to be seeing the word "Exubera" a lot post approval!!

Liane, this stock has been manipulated both up and down. I certainly think Deerfied's intended exercise of stock options may have had something to do with the stock holding right around $5 for so long. I continue to hope that their actions are a harbinger of an impending partnership decision and announcement.

Liane and Spiro, please understand that I sincerely hope the two of you are 100% correct, actually, Liane, I'm going to hope it's Spiro that's 100% correct. I've just been to too many rodeos. And Spiro nailed it when he said that I have "low expectations syndrome." Believe me, he's not the only one who's noticed that!! It's like "battered spouse syndrome" just not nearly as serious. Perhaps a couple of hits on a Dreamboat can cure me of that!!

[liane]

Dec 29, 2013 14:04:44 GMT -5 babaoriley said:

Liane and Spiro, please understand that I sincerely hope the two of you are 100% correct, actually, Liane, I'm going to hope it's Spiro that's 100% correct. I've just been to too many rodeos. And Spiro nailed it when he said that I have "low expectations syndrome." Believe me, he's not the only one who's noticed that!! It's like "battered spouse syndrome" just not nearly as serious. Perhaps a couple of hits on a Dreamboat can cure me of that!!

I hope Spiro is correct also! I do have some idea what this company is worth in a few years, and it's higher than I can count. What I don't know is what someone will pay today.

[brentie]

Yeah, I don't want a buy-out now either. I hope to be here in a couple of years when it's worth a lot more. I haven't been here for over 6 years to get $15.00 a share. If that's the case then they should have sold 4 years ago....

"From TheFlyOnTheWall.com comes two juicy ones, a rumor that Merck (MRK) is interested in $666 million (market cap) therapeutics MannKind (MNKD), for a purported price of $14.50 per share. The Fly says Merck is reportedly trying to push aside the previous unnamed partner, “which trading desks speculate as Eli Lilly (LLY).”

blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/2009/10/12/rumors-du-jour/

[spiro]

Babaoriley, I have always been very confident in the Afrezza/Technosphere technology. I have also stated numerous times that Big pharma would not let MNKD take Afrezza to the market and that MNKD would get an offer they can't refuse. Over the past 3 years, the marketing surveys have been increasingly favorable for MNKD. Analysts like BeyondProxy, Joe Springer. George Rho and others like Greenhill have clearly reached a conclusion that Afrezza has the potential to become a mega blockbuster drug. Because of this favorable evolution of Afrezza possibly becoming a game changing new treatment for both type 1 and type 2 diabetics, I simply do not not believe that Al Mann would even remotely consider selling Afrezza only, for anything less than $13 -$15 billion dollars. IMO, that is an incredibly low number, for a drug which could easily reach $10 billion or more annual worldwide sales, within 5 years of product launch. The old Exhubera argument has become a little stale now. The shorts will need to make up something else.

[afrezzamiracle]

Either way you have to be pretty confident that either a buyout or partnership is going to occur VERY soon.  The lucky winning BP firm has a lot of work to do to prepare for the launch of the biggest drug in the history of the world!  After all these years, it's never been a better time to be long MNKD, and we will soon be richly rewarded.

[rak5555]

Great discussion. There is a way for both Baba and Spiro to be right. One scenario is for MNKD to sell all marketing rights to Afrezza for what amounts to $15/share; however, for that price MNKD retains manufacturing and technosphere rights. MNKD and buyer enter into a long term exclusive manufacturing contract where MNKD effectively gets a 10 - 20% royalty on all sales. That would be a great deal for shareholders. It ensures partner is properly motivated to maximize sales. It minimizes opportunity for disputes between Al and partner. MNKD would use the cash to pay off expensive debt and build out manufacturing capacity and create technosphere licensing dynasty and possibly pay one time special dividend. The cash flow from manufacturing contract and future technosphere licensing would easily justify a share price north of $30 per share.

[babaoriley]

Make it happen, rak!

[spiro]

Now that is very logical speculation Rak.