|
|
Post by yossarian on Sept 16, 2015 10:25:33 GMT -5
From the Seeking Alpha article. seekingalpha.com/article/3513966-how-sanofi-is-building-for-mannkinds-afrezza?auth_param=ojcm:1aviu9f:1bbabba663f5fcbf61bb43853054caff&uprof=51"Investors should keep an eye on Sam Finta's list of doctors who are prescribing Afrezza. This is a valuable resource, not only for diabetics who want to try Afrezza, but for investors who want to see if the number of doctors who are prescribing Afrezza is growing. This list tells investors if Sanofi's efforts in communicating the value of Afrezza for patients within the doctor's practice is having an impact, not only up to this date but continuing into the future. As of the time of this writing, there are now 75 doctors writing Afrezza prescriptions on Sam's list. That's a small number, but it is growing from just a few weeks earlier. If the list of doctors who are prescribing Afrezza continues to substantially grow, investors can expect to see a rising prescription count which should register in higher sales and a potentially higher value in share price. According to recent prescription data, there are still under 500 Afrezza users in the country. Clearly, Afrezza sales will need to begin to acquire some momentum by the end of this year and into 2016." As long as prescribing doctors are few, the script counts will be low. But if you see a jump in prescribing doctors, "Thar she blows!" |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 16, 2015 11:00:26 GMT -5
From the Seeking Alpha article. seekingalpha.com/article/3513966-how-sanofi-is-building-for-mannkinds-afrezza?auth_param=ojcm:1aviu9f:1bbabba663f5fcbf61bb43853054caff&uprof=51"Investors should keep an eye on Sam Finta's list of doctors who are prescribing Afrezza. This is a valuable resource, not only for diabetics who want to try Afrezza, but for investors who want to see if the number of doctors who are prescribing Afrezza is growing. This list tells investors if Sanofi's efforts in communicating the value of Afrezza for patients within the doctor's practice is having an impact, not only up to this date but continuing into the future. As of the time of this writing, there are now 75 doctors writing Afrezza prescriptions on Sam's list. That's a small number, but it is growing from just a few weeks earlier. If the list of doctors who are prescribing Afrezza continues to substantially grow, investors can expect to see a rising prescription count which should register in higher sales and a potentially higher value in share price. According to recent prescription data, there are still under 500 Afrezza users in the country. Clearly, Afrezza sales will need to begin to acquire some momentum by the end of this year and into 2016." As long as prescribing doctors are few, the script counts will be low. But if you see a jump in prescribing doctors, "Thar she blows!" Not every afrezza user is on twitter and is in contact with Sam. in a way .. we do not know how complete is that list |
|
|
|
Post by nylefty on Sept 16, 2015 11:01:07 GMT -5
"According to recent prescription data, there are still under 500 Afrezza users in the country."
Huh? According to Symphony, as of Sept. 4th, 10,562 prescriptions had been filled for Afrezza. More than 500 are being filled every week! How does that translate to "under 500 Afrezza users in the country?"
|
|
|
|
Post by mdcenter61 on Sept 16, 2015 11:11:36 GMT -5
"According to recent prescription data, there are still under 500 Afrezza users in the country."Huh? According to Symphony, as of Sept. 4th, 10,562 prescriptions had been filled for Afrezza. More than 500 are being filled every week! How does that translate to "under 500 Afrezza users in the country?"
Yeah, I'm not getting that number either - was thinking that recently was estimated that there were around 2,800 users, and that was several weeks ago.
|
|
|
|
Post by yossarian on Sept 16, 2015 15:44:33 GMT -5
If you read the author's comments to his article he says the 500 was a typo and should be 5000.
|
|
|
|
Post by compound26 on Sept 16, 2015 16:02:24 GMT -5
"Not every afrezza user is on twitter and is in contact with Sam. in a way .. we do not know how complete is that list
".
I agree with the above observation. This indicator will be very imprecise. This is like to look at the weekly increase in the people following Sam's Twitter to predict the weekly TRx or NRx. You would think in each week's TRx or NRx, a certain percentage of the new users will start to follow Sam's Twitter and therefore there is a close correlation between the two sets of numbers. But that does not appear to be the case.
However, this indicator may be helpful once we got a large number (say above 200 doctors on the list) and if we look the numbers over a long period of time, say every three or six months.
|
|
|
|
Post by jbceruti on Sept 16, 2015 16:17:07 GMT -5
It probably is an imprecise indicator but its still heartening to see the number grow.
It just jumped to 81
|
|
|
|
Post by tigiron on Sept 16, 2015 17:38:30 GMT -5
If you read the author's comments to his article he says the 500 was a typo and should be 5000. The author should have made the correction on the main article. He should not make this mistake in the first place. Further more, try to be as precise as possible, the user base right now is probably over 2000, but should be less than 5000. |
|
|
|
Post by liane on Sept 16, 2015 17:43:05 GMT -5
I'm not sure anyone knows how many Afrezza users there are. Robert has posted several MNKD articles on SA, and he's a valued contributor here. I'd cut him some slack and chalk it up to an honest typo.
|
|
|
|
Post by tigiron on Sept 16, 2015 17:44:41 GMT -5
"Not every afrezza user is on twitter and is in contact with Sam. in a way .. we do not know how complete is that list ". I agree with the above observation. This indicator will be very imprecise. This is like to look at the weekly increase in the people following Sam's Twitter to predict the weekly TRx or NRx. You would think in each week's TRx or NRx, a certain percentage of the new users will start to follow Sam's Twitter and therefore there is a close correlation between the two sets of numbers. But that does not appear to be the case. However, this indicator may be helpful once we got a large number (say above 200 doctors on the list) and if we look the numbers over a long period of time, say every three or six months. While I applaud your effort and contribution to the community, I have to agree with you the unsavory fact using the Growth number of doctors to forecast script number is a very poor and insensitive approach. Even if the doctors on the list grow to 200, it will still be very unrealiable. And yes, over a long period of time... While conceptually it should be a leading indicator, and fairly reliable if there is some 200 and beyond, in reality, it is more likely works as a lagging indicator. |
|
|
|
Post by compound26 on Sept 16, 2015 17:44:54 GMT -5
Fyi, the number in the main article has been corrected.
|
|
|
|
Post by nylefty on Sept 16, 2015 19:09:16 GMT -5
Fyi, the number in the main article has been corrected. It took many hours to get this fixed. Many people saw the first version and will probably never know that it was terribly wrong. Not good. |
|
|
|
Post by waldemar on Sept 17, 2015 8:31:39 GMT -5
OK, we can get some ideas regarding the soft launch and the future potential. If we assume that the users are 2800 and the number of doctors is 100 (Sam Finta most probably doesn't have data about all of them) this means 28 users per doctor. If we use the scripts numbers, we have 10562 scripts / 100 = appr. 105 scripts per doctor. I know this is speculation with the numbers, but even there are some deviations, this is not a bad result for 7.5 months since the launch in Feb. Imagine what the numbers will be (with this trend) if the doctors become 1000, 2000…
|
|
|
|
Post by peppy on Sept 17, 2015 8:39:06 GMT -5
In regard to indicators, consider this indicator.
MannKind MNKD Message Board
Users Online in the Last 24 Hours
5 Staff, 339 Members, 1,667 Guests.
The numbers here are going up as well.
|
|
|
|
Post by BlueCat on Sept 17, 2015 12:44:00 GMT -5
In regard to indicators, consider this indicator. MannKind MNKD Message Board Users Online in the Last 24 Hours 5 Staff, 339 Members, 1,667 Guests. The numbers here are going up as well. Ok. We'll move the needle here if all the bullish followers on StockTwits, YMB and Proboards: 1). Expand Market. New regimen - Start going to Krispy Kreme or DDs 2x daily RIGHT NOW - especially before bedtime. Order glazed, jelly-filled. 3.) Qualify as Lead. Schedule a pulmonary test with your GP RIGHT now (then you can quit KK/DDs if you do NOT qualify - don't want to fund the competition and kill your liver with metaformin) 2. Plan Ahead. Proactively schedule 3 months in advance with an endo from Sam's List (hey - he could compete with Angie's List …), 4.) Remove obstacles. Start checking your Afrezza insurance coverage (and go to marketplace if need to be to switch to a plan that covers it). Worst case, buy time for your new script in 3 months using that co-pay card SNY offers. Ah heck. Stopping lending your shares only goes so far. We gotta get those script numbers up STAT. If we all follow steps 1-4 above, I'd say we'd get a serious spike in scripts before EOY. |
|
