Run up.

[biotec]

Could this be the start of a nice run up? It would be nice.

[nemzter]

Hope not, was trying to grab a few shares closer to 5, now I'm buying around this range, I guess you never know when it'll bottom out or run up...

[ashiwi]

I hope and think it is. I've been waiting over 4 years for the BIG run up and it appears that some short covering is taking place today. I am fully loaded and waiting patiently. It can be any morning that you wake up and see the press release about a big pharma and MNKD inking a partnership/collaboration. This is the final countdown. You don't want to be short. I bought back of of my covered calls for a nice profit and will exercise my in the money calls that I bought. It's been fun watching all the puts that I have sold expire worthless. I see light at the end of the tunnel.

[nemzter]

Just filled, fully loaded here as well! w00h00

GLTA!

[babaoriley]

You've played it well, aswhiwi!! Now, we need our boys to make what I think is the decisive move and show the biotech investing world that they are ready for action at the highest level of play. There is certainly nice volume in the stock today, and perhaps some shorts are covering. I think I would cover now if I were them, because even with no partner, this one doesn't figure to drop too much between now and the PDUFA date, so why not cover now, and then go short toward the end of March, when the stock might be up some from current levels, and you can cash in big if you were right and the FDA gives us the deep six. If we can get a partnership announcement before a lot of covering, we might see some sort of squeeze. Still, my guess is within an hour of a partnership announcement, the shorties will have their articles hitting the financial wires.

[ashiwi]

Thanks baba. I like to think that I played it well. If we (Afrezza) doesn't get approval, or if a BP does not materialize, it will turn out that I wasn't as smart as I thought I was and my retirement will never happen. I just have a good feeling about it this time. Everything I read, see and hear leads me to believe that we will see good news on all fronts this go around. I am soooo over weighted with MNKD shares that the next few months can potentially be life changing one way or the other.

[babaoriley]

Not that I should have anything to say about your goals, Ashiwi, but I'm going to anyway. Your goal between now and the PDUFA date (be it April 15 or sooner, which is tricky), is to change the following: "I am soooo over weighted with MNKD shares that the next few months can potentially be life changing one way or the other," to "I am soooo over weighted with MNKD shares that the next few months can potentially be life changing, but only for the better." Or as close as you can come to that.

[ashiwi]

Thank you. I stand corrected. My bad.

[biotec]

I think we are going to see a year of great gains. I think 2014 is the year for MNKD longs(its about time).Also I hope not to harvest to soon, But thats a hard thing to do.BTW I had CLSN in my portfolio, Was not a good Jan last year for me, hope this one makes up for it.

Bio

[babaoriley]

Heck, biotec, you think CLSN was bad, I had a little of that and it was bad; but last January I was short NFLX - now THAT WAS BAD!!!

[spiro]

AShiwi,

LOl, it must have been a bad day for your patients today, with you on the computer most of  day checking out MNKd. One thing is certain, things are going to get explosive very soon. Let us hope that it is the shorts who  are the ones sitting on the dynamite when it explodes,  this time around. My butt has been blown off twice already and I am not sure I can handle another explosion. 

Spiro

[biotec]

bab, I hear you. clsn cost me $45000. Wish i shorted that stock, But it seemed like a great drug and the trials looked like there was no problems, I did my DD many times over with that one.Oh well lets make up for it with mnkd.

[babaoriley]

Yup, I've seen the great sounding drugs go by the boards too many times, that's essentially why I remain somewhat reserved on MNKD. But once in a while, you hit one out of the park and it's great (like rak and a couple others here). MNKD certainly can be the one; it's not like Al Mann is a stranger to big time success.

Fortunately, I did not have sufficient time to fall in love with CLSN, but it still cost me about 1/3 of what it cost you. Not only did NFLX kill me in January, but it continued throughout 2013, even though I did everything I felt I should to mitigate the situation. Essentially, my problem wasn't so much it went very, very strong in the wrong direction (Jan 23 - $105 - Jan 24 $170 or some such), it was that I had no business having such a large position. I've bought some NFLX and sold puts to mitigate, but it's a row boat in a flood.

With MNKD, I'm determined not to be killed by bad news, it will cost me upside, no question, but the upside will be fine. It will still feel like a truck ran me over if the FDA treats us poorly, but financially, I hope to limit the downside.

Years ago, I was in a stock called Cell Pathways, cancer drug, Phase III completed and waiting on the FDA. The stock ran to $37 (up steadily into the PDUFA date). I think my average price in was maybe $20; at $37, though, one could be some nice puts, like for a $20 or so strike, at a reasonable price; I bought some, but not enough, I was somewhat new to biotech at that time, especially with playing options on it. I believe the bad news hit after close on a Friday - the stock opened at about $11 on Monday, and was down to about $9 by end of trading. Instead of losing X, I lost about 1/2 X, and felt reasonably good about my financial decision. What bothered me was that I could have easily broken even without investing too much more on the puts - live and learn. I had been on the Yahoo board of that stock for a long time, lots of posters - what a pathetic few days that was. Reading that board that Friday night, and all through the weekend, relative to the financial ruin of many who I had reason to trust (and like), was tough (these days, I wouldn't believe 1/3 of the people on the general Yahoo boards). Many were going to be facing not only financial, but spousal issues. I'm quite sure many just wanted to give their spouse a big surprise when approval came and the stock doubled!! More than any other event, that event has shaped a lot of how I feel about developmental biotech. And I admit I'm negatively biased and much of that is due to the CLPA disaster.

Unless MNKD really moves, I don't see put insurance as a good method of mitigating, it's just too darn expensive. So, I sell puts, sell calls and hope for the best.

[Chris]

Jan 3, 2014 22:11:14 GMT -5 babaoriley said:

Yup, I've seen the great sounding drugs go by the boards too many times, that's essentially why I remain somewhat reserved on MNKD. But once in a while, you hit one out of the park and it's great (like rak and a couple others here). MNKD certainly can be the one; it's not like Al Mann is a stranger to big time success.

Fortunately, I did not have sufficient time to fall in love with CLSN, but it still cost me about 1/3 of what it cost you. Not only did NFLX kill me in January, but it continued throughout 2013, even though I did everything I felt I should to mitigate the situation. Essentially, my problem wasn't so much it went very, very strong in the wrong direction (Jan 23 - $105 - Jan 24 $170 or some such), it was that I had no business having such a large position. I've bought some NFLX and sold puts to mitigate, but it's a row boat in a flood.

With MNKD, I'm determined not to be killed by bad news, it will cost me upside, no question, but the upside will be fine. It will still feel like a truck ran me over if the FDA treats us poorly, but financially, I hope to limit the downside.

Years ago, I was in a stock called Cell Pathways, cancer drug, Phase III completed and waiting on the FDA. The stock ran to $37 (up steadily into the PDUFA date). I think my average price in was maybe $20; at $37, though, one could be some nice puts, like for a $20 or so strike, at a reasonable price; I bought some, but not enough, I was somewhat new to biotech at that time, especially with playing options on it. I believe the bad news hit after close on a Friday - the stock opened at about $11 on Monday, and was down to about $9 by end of trading. Instead of losing X, I lost about 1/2 X, and felt reasonably good about my financial decision. What bothered me was that I could have easily broken even without investing too much more on the puts - live and learn. I had been on the Yahoo board of that stock for a long time, lots of posters - what a pathetic few days that was. Reading that board that Friday night, and all through the weekend, relative to the financial ruin of many who I had reason to trust (and like), was tough (these days, I wouldn't believe 1/3 of the people on the general Yahoo boards). Many were going to be facing not only financial, but spousal issues. I'm quite sure many just wanted to give their spouse a big surprise when approval came and the stock doubled!! More than any other event, that event has shaped a lot of how I feel about developmental biotech. And I admit I'm negatively biased and much of that is due to the CLPA disaster.

Unless MNKD really moves, I don't see put insurance as a good method of mitigating, it's just too darn expensive. So, I sell puts, sell calls and hope for the best.

Thanks for the story, great reminder to have about investments.

So you're selling covered calls and naked puts, Baba?

Are you looking to sell any shares prior to April 15th or are you riding MNKD, seeing as you've been averaging down to limit financial loss?

I've never been so heavily weighted into one position as I am with MNKD. It's been a great lesson to learn how to control impulses and think (or at least attempt to think) rationally - hopefully it's not a costly one.

[babaoriley]

Hey, Chris,

I don't have many shares, I have a bunch of those Feb 2016 warrants. Yes, I plan to sell some before April 15, unless they aren't materially above where there are now. I would look forward to selling some around high 3's or better, of course (remember, they got to $4 very briefly concurrently with trial results announcements in August).

Since the FDA may respond early, it will be a bit tricky, don't want to get caught with an early denial. Although I think I could live with an early approval, LOL! But, the first time I will be looking to sell a few warrants or shares will be after a pre-PDUFA partnership announcement, one of my selfish reasons for wanting that to happen soon. Additionally, if we get a partnership announcement, I might sell a few longer term calls right after that announcement. Perhaps Jan 2015 or even 2016, and I would look to go fairly high on the strike price, to allow for a good amount of appreciation.

Right now, I have a bunch of naked puts with $4 and $5 strikes for February, as I don't think we're going to get hit hard between now and then. I also have sold some covered calls at a very modest $6 strike for February, so I'll lose the few shares I have if the stock goes above $6 by then, and that would be okay with me.

The premiums are pretty generous on the options, and that's something you don't find much of these days in stocks, and, of course, that reflects the level of uncertainty, volatility and risk of this investment. You wanna see some nice premiums, check out Herbalife (HLF) for February, post earnings announcement, I believe, wow! I used to like Vegas and the ponies (a lot), no desire for that anymore, the market more than satisfies that urge.