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Post by chevychase on Oct 8, 2015 17:19:23 GMT -5
Sales estimates are accurate from IMS. Just compare the past data form IMS to the last 2 quarters from MNKD
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Post by liane on Oct 8, 2015 17:22:16 GMT -5
blu2waz, Sorry, I don't that afterhour. Only ~ 70k shares per Nasdaq.
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Post by lynn on Oct 8, 2015 18:35:46 GMT -5
After reading all your comments I just finished listening . Perhaps it's because I was expecting it to be worse from what I read but to me he sounded like someone who was prepared to give a 30 minute presentation that was unexpectedly cut in half . That had to be frustrating for him . Per usual, he couldn't say much but I'm glad I was able to hear it for myself .
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Post by blu2waz on Oct 8, 2015 18:53:52 GMT -5
Liane,
CNBC live quotes.
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Post by sluggobear on Oct 8, 2015 19:43:43 GMT -5
Like Lynn said above, I read a lot of comments before listening to the presentation. I thought Matt did a fine job considering the problems; he started out a bit discombobulated but it wasn't that bad. I took some notes and I will paste them in later.
I have given many, many presentations in settings like this, as I'm sure many here have. Technical problems are rare now but that brings me back to a slide show I gave as a newbie exec in the early 90's. I was presenting to a full room of surgeons and other company execs. As commonly happened back then, the presentation computer was very slow. So I kept hitting the "next slide" button. When the computer finally caught up and engaged, the whole slide show went by in about 15 seconds and I couldn't stop it until the last slide with "Thank You" was stuck on the screen. Luckily the President of the company was quick on his feet: "So, any questions?". Nice comic relief.
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Post by sluggobear on Oct 8, 2015 20:15:38 GMT -5
These are my notes from the Aegis presentation, NOT an official transcript. Much of this I reworded for brevity. I may have misheard or misunderstood something, so please correct these notes if needed.
Notes of Aegis presentation by Matt Pfeffer. October 8, 2015.
0:00 Technical difficulties, apologies for rapidity of talk. Introduction.
1:00 Happily partnered with Sanofi, SNY talked about it being a major launch, it has been (major launch) but not gang-busters. Seen some ads in popular magazines and on-line. Skipped slides. Afrezza gets into bloodstream in 12 minutes and out more quickly than other RAA’s. More similar to normal person's pancreatic release.
2:00 Go to Afrezza website for more information; Sanofi’s site afrezza.com. Because of concerns about hypoglycemia, diabetics are not very compliant with their insulin. If we can overcome these issues with diabetics we will have a blockbuster product on our hands.
3:00 Clearly it is a preferred patient experience for those using insulin. Demonstrates Afrezza product. We believe that people will be more compliant but we don’t have the data for that but it seems intuitive. So I have to be careful not to go off-label here. More physiologic insulin so it’s not just the convenience factor, it’s how the product works.
4:00 In many surveys, patients said they like this concept, as do doctors. We partnered with Sanofi after approval. Sanofi obviously a leader in insulin/diabetes but not conflicted by having another big prandial insulin contender. Commercial strategy – shows a lot of T1D people that need insulin intensification i.e. for those who take Lantus or Toujeo, need more insulin, and don’t want another 3 injections per day.
5:00 Also approved for T2D’s, could be appreciated by those T2D's who have put off taking insulin. There are a lot of these patients and we predict that doctors can have more success with this product in these patients. We do see that happening in the real world. Launch got off to slow start, we’re in "middle box" (refer to slide) where things are starting to pick up. DTC campaign kicked off, in early stages, looking at launches OUS (more to say later, area of active investigation). Also looking at Sanofi as supplier of insulin. Poises us for label enhancement studies – the kind of thing you’d expect to see starting next year.
6:00 Increasing attention on Afrezza. Depends on your product I guess - it is sometimes good, not so good. Matt touted attention in social media, “Don’t take my word for it, I encourage you to go check it out yourself. You will be very impressed." He has been contacted by news outlets. Mentioned Diabetes Awareness month is coming and that they expect to see more attention in the media.
7:00 Updates: Increased / tripled capacity, world class facility; very proud. Capacity not required at the moment but nice to have it there. Needed 12U cartridges, which was one of the reasons to bring lines 2 & 3 up.
8:00 Tools on line now. Important to be putting information out there; mentioned the Afrezza Coach program. Referring to treatment of diabetes and medicine in general, Matt said, "Making a fundamental change is difficult." Touched on TS platform; consider it the future of the company as the basis for new products. Matt now regrets “embarrassment of riches” comment. He had meant that TS could be used for many API / drug entities and the future was wide open for other TS / drug combinations.
9:00 Looking at drugs which take advantage of TS features besides just eliminating the injection. Not practical to develop new chemical entities so working for next product to be a known drug. Occasionally look at NCE’s which are nice to look at but it would be a 10 year process.
10:00 Spent a lot of time and money on the consulting process to select 2 new applications / drug candidates. First indication would be pulmonary hypertension. This is a serious effort on the company’s behalf. The R&D activities are fully staffed and preclinical work has been/is being done. We can look forward to hearing more news about this soon but not at the moment. Licensing tech to other companies - have to be careful not create competitors to ourselves.
10:40 Financial performance. Ended Q3 with $107m cash. Taken lots of steps to reduce burn rate, let people go, streamlining, so surprised that people were surprised about recent layoffs. Sanofi now responsible for things that were done previously in Paramus (sp?) facility. This was an evolutionary thing. Some people relocated to Danbury where centralizing. Corporate HQ offices relocating across the freeway. We want to make the cash last as long as possible.
12:00 Convertible debt instrument gone. Paid off part of it, refinanced part, and swapped part. Half paid in cash and half converted or swapped. Mark Twain comment" rumors of our demise.... Milestones coming, not able to disclose. The next $25m milestone should be coming but can’t disclose, not for increased manufacturing. Haven’t earned it yet though.
13:00 End of slides. Summarized by saying we’re poised for some very good things, but I can’t lie that growth in Rx rate is what we hoped for – we had really high hopes. Firm belief that Rx numbers will continue to go up, patients will find out about it, doctors will get comfortable prescribing it.
14:00 There are rumors of TV production in the works, can’t promise anything. There were a couple of questions that couldn’t be heard. First question Matt said was afinancial question - save for quarterly call.
15:00 Second question about Sanofi arrangement: We have 35:65 profit-sharing. Modeling showed this should work out better than a royalty arrangement assuming the product will be as highly profitable as we believe it will be. At the moment Sanofi is paying its (Mannkind’s) share of the losses.
16:00 Question unknown but Matt said: MNKD produces and sells product to SNY at their cost. They (MNKD) are made whole by Sanofi for that cost. MNKD / SNY have not disclosed that cost or gross margin. Next question not heard. Matt said “that’s a complicated question. Consumer pays co-pay and most products come to market at Tier 3, that’s where we are now but Sanofi is all over trying to get primary formulary placement. Sanofi has a co-pay program which provides basically a Tier 2-like cost to patient.
17:00 Sanofi does not have a stake "as yet".
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Post by jpg on Oct 8, 2015 20:32:48 GMT -5
Oct. 8, 2015 Market Close: $ 3.01 Pre-Market Charts | After Hours Charts View most recent trades for the selected time period: After Hours Volume: After Hours High: After Hours Low: 80,528 $ 3.13 (17:10:36 PM) $ 3 (17:14:44 PM) |
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Post by nadathing on Oct 8, 2015 20:38:55 GMT -5
It's my understanding that the script #s are incomplete, missing information from chains like CVS and Walgreen's, and therefore are unreliable. If this is true the scripts can be used to determine trends, not financial results. The quarterly report on 11/2 will likely answer some questions. 2.3 million shares were traded after hours today at the closing price... Someone is covering. btw newbie NASDAQ shows 80,528. Where are you seeing 2.3 million? Thanks. |
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Post by bill on Oct 8, 2015 20:59:39 GMT -5
Thanks to everyone who's already posted. Seems to me that Matt gave us as much as he could in the little time available. In my opinion, not much more he could do and we shouldn't have expected much more. OTOH, I think the really interesting question should revolve around the SALES impact the Vegas trained sales reps will have on scripts in the next few months. What SNY knows is how many sales reps they've trained and what impact they should have on prescriptions going forward. I suspect they delayed the training because they wanted time to solve the spirometer problem and work the insurance coverage pipeline. I'm cautiously hopeful that the newly trained sales reps coupled with improved insurance coverage will dramatically alter the scripts profile within a few months. It's a shame that SNY has the numbers, the BPs they compete with probably know the numbers, and the institutions and shorts know the numbers--because no one can keep a secret:-), but we remain in the dark. I'm also hopeful that the list of physicians prescribing Afrezza might be a leading indicator on script growth. Last I checked one of the lists showed just under 90, and there were lots of states with no coverage at all. If prescribing physicians and state coverage begin to increase, then I suspect scripts will follow.
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Post by tonyz on Oct 8, 2015 22:35:31 GMT -5
Just FYI - The next earnings release date is 11/2. That should be when the material financial information will be clarified and why Matt couldn't answer some specific questions. That's just a tentative date, It could be a week or so later. I'm looking forward to see the script numbers tomorrow! Please let them be good! We need some good news every once and awhile! Thanks biotec I should have said something less specific like "around 11/2" It can definitely change between now and the actual earnings date. Bests, Tony |
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Post by kc on Oct 8, 2015 22:58:10 GMT -5
I like the way that Matt stated the following. Listen to it over and over. I think the way he said it is telling.
"Sanofi does not have a stake "as yet".
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Post by gamblerjag on Oct 8, 2015 23:46:01 GMT -5
HEY KC, I SEE WHERE YOUR HOPING FOR THE "AS YET " TO MEAN MORE THAN IT IS.. KNOWING THE MATT SPEAKS.. I'M GUESSING HE IS BEING JUST LITTERAL.. NOT YET.. NOT WE EXPECT IT SOON.. HOPE I'M WRONG.. GL. ' |
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Post by bradleysbest on Oct 8, 2015 23:53:54 GMT -5
My question is when will be a good time for SNY to buy into MNKD? SNY has all the info we as investors would like to know; script numbers, EU & Japan approval, insurance coverage, label change, etc.... Given that they have all that info & have NOT bought in at the $3 range is disappointing! If SNY believes that Afrezza will be a success why would they not buy in at this price? I guess Matt believes it will happen someday but I have my doubts.
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Post by babaoriley on Oct 9, 2015 0:15:51 GMT -5
You're goin' dark on us, bradleysbest. Look at the bright side, you could be Steve Sarkisian.
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Post by monetpenet on Oct 9, 2015 0:16:30 GMT -5
I like the way that Matt stated the following. Listen to it over and over. I think the way he said it is telling. "Sanofi does not have a stake "as yet". "as yet" It may be telling... I wouldn't read too much into how he said it. Besides, that is the same guy who was talking about 'embarrassment of riches' a couple of months ago... There can be a pretty good case made that SNY is screwing MNKD. First, they cornered us into bad marketing partnership deal. I think that because I clearly remember Mann saying that he was expecting from the partner to come up with upfront cash to cover Afrezza development. Now, we can argue how much that should be... but definitely much more than the upfront cash MNKD got. Al either didn't get what he was let to believe he was getting, or he was just completely out of touch with reality... Not good either way. Second, the "Sanofi does not have a stake as yet"...Let's assume that they are planning to do it, or they somehow 'agreed' to it. If (a very big 'if') so, then it could mean they are considering this entry price too high. And how to make it lower? Maybe by extending the unexpectedly long controlled launch until MNKD price is right? Who knows... Certainly not Al or Matt. Time is not our friend... Especially when our 'partner' knows intimately our shaky cash situation and is in complete charge of the fate of our only product. |
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