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Post by radiohet on Oct 13, 2015 11:10:47 GMT -5
How do you guys evaluate the financial situation of MNKD? Here is my take. Please feel free to correct me:
| Cash end 2nd qtr | 107 | | Debt settled cash | -50 | | Afrezza sales to SNY (at costs) 3 qtr | 5 | | ATM Facility | 50 | | Al Mann loan | 30 | | 3rd qtr cash burn | -20 | | restricted cash due to Deerfield | -25 | | cash or available loans (end 3rd qtr) | $97M |
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Post by tonyz on Oct 13, 2015 11:19:21 GMT -5
Seems to be pretty close, but we won't know for sure until it's addressed at the next earnings report. If it's not addressed in the statements I'm sure it will be in the Q&A afterwards. It would be nice if the financial questions could be put to rest so investors would concentrate on the benefits and long term potential for Afrezza.
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Post by radiohet on Oct 13, 2015 15:29:31 GMT -5
hm...no more contributions? No one here to add something in the one or other direction? I always thought about this forum as the most sophisticated when it comes to MNKD. Please don't let me down.
"If it's not addressed in the statements I'm sure it will be in the Q&A afterwards." --> the cash and cash equivalents will be in the financial statements. But for me it is more interesting to discuss, where the pitfalls are. If you look at SA or articles from AF different figures are floating around. I want to show that it is not over in 1 or 2 quarters. There will be other sources of revenue (like milestone payments), but we don't know for sure when they are due. Obviously it will take at least 2 or 3 quarters until the JV with SNY is profitable (the foundation for that is solid script growth of course).
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Post by mnholdem on Oct 13, 2015 15:42:07 GMT -5
I'm not sure why you'd assume they used the $50M ATM. If they need cash, they can simply sell the BofA shares, which are already outstanding and will not cause further dilution. I think Matt also mentioned a milestone payment...
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Post by me on Oct 13, 2015 15:45:21 GMT -5
I think his assumption is cash + financing available.
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Post by cretin11 on Oct 13, 2015 15:45:26 GMT -5
hm...no more contributions? No one here to add something in the one or other direction? I always thought about this forum as the most sophisticated when it comes to MNKD. Please don't let me down. "If it's not addressed in the statements I'm sure it will be in the Q&A afterwards." --> the cash and cash equivalents will be in the financial statements. But for me it is more interesting to discuss, where the pitfalls are. If you look at SA or articles from AF different figures are floating around. I want to show that it is not over in 1 or 2 quarters. There will be other sources of revenue (like milestone payments), but we don't know for sure when they are due. Obviously it will take at least 2 or 3 quarters until the JV with SNY is profitable (the foundation for that is solid script growth of course). You've shown that indeed "it is not over in 1 or 2 quarters" so I doubt anybody here could reasonably argue that point with you. Look through previous threads for exhaustive discussions on this same subject. I agree with you that this forum is the most sophisticated when it comes to MNKD. Are you aware of any other forum that's even close? Thanks in advance, as if so I would like to check it out. |
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Post by james on Oct 13, 2015 16:01:17 GMT -5
How do you guys evaluate the financial situation of MNKD? Here is my take. Please feel free to correct me:
| Cash end 2nd qtr | 107 | | Debt settled cash | -50 | | Afrezza sales to SNY (at costs) 3 qtr | 5 | | ATM Facility | 50 | | Al Mann loan | 30 | | 3rd qtr cash burn | -20 | | restricted cash due to Deerfield | -25 | | cash or available loans (end 3rd qtr) | $97M |
Hi, I don't think MNKD will tap the Al Mann loan until strictly necessary and probably not until after the ATM is utilized. The 3rd qtr cash burn is probably more like 12 or 13M, but this remains to be seen. The 'restricted cash' is not due to anybody, remains available for use intra-quarter and will continue to be listed under cash on the balance sheet. Given these assumptions, a reasonable expectation for cash listed at end of 3Q would be ~49M. |
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Post by radiohet on Oct 13, 2015 16:03:30 GMT -5
I'm not sure why you'd assume they used the $50M ATM. If they need cash, they can simply sell the BofA shares, which are already outstanding and will not cause further dilution. I think Matt also mentioned a milestone payment... Well, thanks for everyone for chipping in. About the BofA shares: when they are returned they are not outstanding anymore (by definition). So you would have to use the shelf registration for more cash. But that is something no one wants with the share price so low. But I agree, it is an alternative even though not really pretty for longs. Regarding the ATM: why wouldn't they use it, when the cash runs out? If this discussion took place already I apologize.... |
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Post by radiohet on Oct 13, 2015 16:05:11 GMT -5
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Post by radiohet on Oct 13, 2015 16:10:03 GMT -5
"The 'restricted cash' is not due to anybody, remains available for use intra-quarter and will continue to be listed under cash on the balance sheet." Read more: mnkd.proboards.com/post/41104/edit#ixzz3oU6r4RvIYou are right I wasn't very clear. I didn't mean the restricted cash is due to Deerfield, but it is restricted because of the Deerfield loan. |
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Post by cretin11 on Oct 13, 2015 16:10:07 GMT -5
I'm not sure why you'd assume they used the $50M ATM. If they need cash, they can simply sell the BofA shares, which are already outstanding and will not cause further dilution. I think Matt also mentioned a milestone payment... Well, thanks for everyone for chipping in. About the BofA shares: when they are returned they are not outstanding anymore (by definition). So you would have to use the shelf registration for more cash. But that is something no one wants with the share price so low. But I agree, it is an alternative even though not really pretty for longs. Regarding the ATM: why wouldn't they use it, when the cash runs out? If this discussion took place already I apologize.... See the "Analysts Comments" thread on this board, go to page 25 for a few recent posts on this subject (in response to a sloppily written article on SA). |
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Post by radiohet on Oct 13, 2015 16:12:11 GMT -5
Well, thanks for everyone for chipping in. About the BofA shares: when they are returned they are not outstanding anymore (by definition). So you would have to use the shelf registration for more cash. But that is something no one wants with the share price so low. But I agree, it is an alternative even though not really pretty for longs. Regarding the ATM: why wouldn't they use it, when the cash runs out? If this discussion took place already I apologize.... See the "Analysts Comments" thread on this board, go to page 25 for a few recent posts on this subject (in response to a sloppily written article on SA). thanks |
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Post by radiohet on Oct 13, 2015 16:12:58 GMT -5
I think his assumption is cash + financing available. correct and w/o dilution |
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Oct 13, 2015 16:16:22 GMT -5
How do you guys evaluate the financial situation of MNKD? Here is my take. Please feel free to correct me:
| Cash end 2nd qtr | 107 | | Debt settled cash | -50 | | Afrezza sales to SNY (at costs) 3 qtr | 5 | | ATM Facility | 50 | | Al Mann loan | 30 | | 3rd qtr cash burn | -20 | | restricted cash due to Deerfield | -25 | | cash or available loans (end 3rd qtr) | $97M |
Hi, I don't think MNKD will tap the Al Mann loan until strictly necessary and probably not until after the ATM is utilized. The 3rd qtr cash burn is probably more like 12 or 13M, but this remains to be seen. The 'restricted cash' is not due to anybody, remains available for use intra-quarter and will continue to be listed under cash on the balance sheet. Given these assumptions, a reasonable expectation for cash listed at end of 3Q would be ~49M. I'm not expecting Al to step forward with an increase in this line of credit, but I would hope they would tap the existing line before resorting to selling shares at today's price. Hopefully between the line of credit and maybe the next milestone, they can avoid selling shares until pps is something more reasonable. |
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Post by compound26 on Oct 13, 2015 16:23:08 GMT -5
Here is my take. Please feel free to correct me:
radiohet, this is Compound26, I am using your table template.
Here is my take for the third quarter:
| Cash end 2nd qtr | 107M |
| | Debt settled cash | -50M |
| | 3rd qtr cash burn | -13M |
| | cash (end 3rd qtr) | $44M | $69M if $25M milestone booked for 3rd qtr | | Loan available under Mann Facility | $30M |
| | Loan available under Sanofi Facility | $132M | $147M available as of end of 2nd qtr, so I added $15M balance for the last qtr | | Available under ATM Facility | $50M |
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Based on the above, the Sanofi facility at $132M available and $15M per qtr burn rate (for Afrezza commercialization related expenses), can last another 8.8 qtr (over 2 years) after the 3rd qtr. The 69M cash (including the $25M milestone that we expect Mannk will receive in the near future), plus 30M loan available from Al Mann, and $50M available under ATM, at a $13M per qtr burn rate (for Mannkind's operation related expenses), can last another 11.5 qtr (about 3 years) after the 3rd qtr. If Mannkind reduces its future qtr cash burn to $10M per qtr, this can last another 14.9 qtr (about 4 years) after the 3rd qtr. |
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