LFD

[ishorr]

I'll bring up another analyst--this one consistently trashes MNKD: Looking for Diogenes. In his SA piece today he focused on cash burn, saying: " IF MannKind paid out $50 million in order to address this debt issue, that could be the final nail in this bloated valuation for MNKD. They had $107 million in cash at the end of the last Q. If they paid out $50 million that leaves $57 million, now less the same burn rate of last Q being $28 million that leaves $28 million--but then there is a loan convenient that requires MNKD to have on hand at all times $25 million that leaves a whopping $3 million dollars that isn't encumbered. So basically now that we are two weeks into the four Q, MannKind is out of operating cash."

Do folks here, think the situation is that dire?

[compound26]

Oct 12, 2015 21:12:20 GMT -5 ishorr said:

I'll bring up another analyst--this one consistently trashes MNKD: Looking for Diogenes. In his SA piece today he focused on cash burn, saying: " IF MannKind paid out $50 million in order to address this debt issue, that could be the final nail in this bloated valuation for MNKD. They had $107 million in cash at the end of the last Q. If they paid out $50 million that leaves $57 million, now less the same burn rate of last Q being $28 million that leaves $28 million--but then there is a loan convenient that requires MNKD to have on hand at all times $25 million that leaves a whopping $3 million dollars that isn't encumbered. So basically now that we are two weeks into the four Q, MannKind is out of operating cash."

Do folks here, think the situation is that dire?

If that's what Looking for Diogenes wrote, then he either is deliberately lying or did not do his due diligence.

Per Mann's second quarter conference call transcript, Mannkind's cash burn is $13 million for the last quarter.

"Cash and cash equivalents were $107.2 million at June 30, 2015, compared to $120.8 million in the first quarter of 2015."  See last quarter's conference call transcript.

Even AF admits that in his article: MannKind Silent on Debt Conversion, Suggesting Costly Cash Settlement, where he says: "in the second quarter, MannKind used $13 million in cash to fund operations." 

Additionally, MannKind's still have $30.1 million available to borrow under the amended loan agreement with The Mann Group. See last quarter's conference call transcript.

Finally, Mannkind still has $147 million available under its loan facility with Sanofi. See last quarter's conference call transcript.

Going forward, it appears Mannkind's cash burn rate probably will be less than $13 million per quarter as a result of all the cost-reducing efforts that Mannkind has been implementing recently. It would not surprise me if they manage to reduce their cash burn rate to around $10 million per quarter. If that's the case, Mannkind's $30.1 million available to borrow under the amended loan agreement with The Mann Group will be able to bridge Mannkind for three quarters.  And the expected $25 million manufacturing milestone will extend that time period for another 2.5 quarters. (See this article on this manufacturing milestone.) Even though Matt in his latest presentation said Mannkind have not received this milestone payment yet, he did confirm that he would expect this milestone payment to be received at some point in the future.

[jpg]

Oct 12, 2015 21:12:20 GMT -5 ishorr said:

I'll bring up another analyst--this one consistently trashes MNKD: Looking for Diogenes. In his SA piece today he focused on cash burn, saying: " IF MannKind paid out $50 million in order to address this debt issue, that could be the final nail in this bloated valuation for MNKD. They had $107 million in cash at the end of the last Q. If they paid out $50 million that leaves $57 million, now less the same burn rate of last Q being $28 million that leaves $28 million--but then there is a loan convenient that requires MNKD to have on hand at all times $25 million that leaves a whopping $3 million dollars that isn't encumbered. So basically now that we are two weeks into the four Q, MannKind is out of operating cash."

Do folks here, think the situation is that dire?

I've never seen an analyst go by a pseudonym?  Kind of makes you wonder why they are afraid to use their real name no? Also makes you wonder when this anonymous troll posts repeatedly and weekly just to trash Mannkind.

As a side note it seems Harrys gave you a thumbs up... Congrats on that! 

[ishorr]

Thanks for the detailed response! And yes, you'd think LFD would be looking for another company to burn by now.

[compound26]

Oct 12, 2015 22:50:40 GMT -5 compound26 said:

Oct 12, 2015 21:12:20 GMT -5 ishorr said:

I'll bring up another analyst--this one consistently trashes MNKD: Looking for Diogenes. In his SA piece today he focused on cash burn, saying: " IF MannKind paid out $50 million in order to address this debt issue, that could be the final nail in this bloated valuation for MNKD. They had $107 million in cash at the end of the last Q. If they paid out $50 million that leaves $57 million, now less the same burn rate of last Q being $28 million that leaves $28 million--but then there is a loan convenient that requires MNKD to have on hand at all times $25 million that leaves a whopping $3 million dollars that isn't encumbered. So basically now that we are two weeks into the four Q, MannKind is out of operating cash."

Do folks here, think the situation is that dire?

If that's what Looking for Diogenes wrote, then he either is deliberately lying or did not do his due diligence.

Per Mann's second quarter conference call transcript, Mannkind's cash burn is $13 million for the last quarter.

"Cash and cash equivalents were $107.2 million at June 30, 2015, compared to $120.8 million in the first quarter of 2015."  See last quarter's conference call transcript.

Even AF admits that in his article: MannKind Silent on Debt Conversion, Suggesting Costly Cash Settlement, where he says: "in the second quarter, MannKind used $13 million in cash to fund operations." 

Additionally, MannKind's still have $30.1 million available to borrow under the amended loan agreement with The Mann Group. See last quarter's conference call transcript.

Finally, Mannkind still has $147 million available under its loan facility with Sanofi. See last quarter's conference call transcript.

Going forward, it appears Mannkind's cash burn rate probably will be less than $13 million per quarter as a result of all the cost-reducing efforts that Mannkind has been implementing recently. It would not surprise me if they manage to reduce their cash burn rate to around $10 million per quarter. If that's the case, Mannkind's $30.1 million available to borrow under the amended loan agreement with The Mann Group will be able to bridge Mannkind for three quarters.  And the expected $25 million manufacturing milestone will extend that time period for another 2.5 quarters. (See this article on this manufacturing milestone.) Even though Matt in his latest presentation said Mannkind have not received this milestone payment yet, he did confirm that he would expect this milestone payment to be received at some point in the future.

And there is sloppiness all over the place in the short paragraph quoted above.

First, the author got the facts wrong about the cash burn rate as pointed above.

Second, you will notice that in the author's calculation, 57-28=28.

Third, he says there is a "loan convenient" (apparently a typo for "loan covenant").  

Where are SA's editors?     And the scary thing is that this author now has 28 articled published in SA! 

[afrizzle]

I post anonymously for my own reasons, and I'm only here to learn and occasionally express my opinion

Looking for Diogenes writes anonymously but in my opinion, is a paid bashed who seeks to influence longs to part with their stock.

No hints to motive in the name - Diogenes' famous line was about looking for an honest man. So he's looking for someone who's looking for an honest man. It that his readership?

[tayl5]

I think that makes him an honest man twice removed.

It's been said many times before but the only way to put these clowns back on their heels is a rising script count. As soon as it looks like MannKind will make money on this deal, the harping goes away.

[chuck]

LFD isn't an analyst and neither are most of those writing articles on SA. They are retail investors with a platform to distribute their thoughts to an audience. As far as I can tell, LFD has no medical, scientific or finance training. In addition, it appears he has no real-world experience in the areas he is talking about. Certainly in the area of finance he is weak. Most SA mnkd articles are fine when it comes to providing data from due diligence. Where things go horribly wrong frequently is when they take that data, analyze and attempt to interpret it.

[thoth]

LFD certainly has an unnatural interest in Mannkind.  It's one thing to have a negative perspective on Mannkind or write negative articles, but he seems to actively patrol the comments of any Mannkind article (not just his own) for a chance to bash the company.   If he is not actually being paid to do this, that's an astonishing amount of his free time spent on Mannkind.  

[ishorr]

And he's just published his latest dire diatribe.

[suebeeee1]

LFD is nothing more than a retired publishing exec. What the heck would he know about inhaled insulin?

[EveningOfTheDay]

Oct 20, 2015 12:45:24 GMT -5 suebeeee1 said:

LFD is nothing more than a retired publishing exec. What the heck would he know about inhaled insulin?

What he does know, just as many others seem to do too, is that picking on MNKD gets him clicks, and a click earned is a penny earned. Seriously, from Myabetes (or whatever username Lana is using this days), to LFD the two thing all this MNKD bashers seem to have in common is one, very little knowledge of diabetes or the peculiarities of Afrezza, and two, that picking on MNKD makes them money every time. You want them to go away, stop reading their nonsense, completely. It might take a while, they are used to having it easy, but eventually they will disappear.

[robsacher]

Oct 12, 2015 21:12:20 GMT -5 ishorr said:

I'll bring up another analyst--this one consistently trashes MNKD: Looking for Diogenes. In his SA piece today he focused on cash burn, saying: " IF MannKind paid out $50 million in order to address this debt issue, that could be the final nail in this bloated valuation for MNKD. They had $107 million in cash at the end of the last Q. If they paid out $50 million that leaves $57 million, now less the same burn rate of last Q being $28 million that leaves $28 million--but then there is a loan convenient that requires MNKD to have on hand at all times $25 million that leaves a whopping $3 million dollars that isn't encumbered. So basically now that we are two weeks into the four Q, MannKind is out of operating cash."

Do folks here, think the situation is that dire?

People who care about truth in SA articles should write to the SA editors and let them know that the information in his articles is grossly misrepresented. The editors do seem to care very much about this issue but have not the time to fact check. Let them know. If enough people complain, they may do something about it.

[robsacher]

Oct 16, 2015 14:57:54 GMT -5 chuck said:

LFD isn't an analyst and neither are most of those writing articles on SA. They are retail investors with a platform to distribute their thoughts to an audience. As far as I can tell, LFD has no medical, scientific or finance training. In addition, it appears he has no real-world experience in the areas he is talking about. Certainly in the area of finance he is weak. Most SA mnkd articles are fine when it comes to providing data from due diligence. Where things go horribly wrong frequently is when they take that data, analyze and attempt to interpret it.

Chuck,  That's what goes wrong when most analysts try and interpret data, especially when they are influenced by those who want those writers to express a particular agenda, i.e Goldman Sachs. But, there is a line between outright twisting of data for the purpose of misrepresenting it and speculative analysis based on potentiality...

[anims515]

At least he doesn't constantly comment in other articles linking to his own SA articles begging for clicks