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Post by lakemann on Oct 29, 2015 16:08:07 GMT -5
Looks to me like 2018 is good,, and sny plan to mitigate the affezza situation ..on nov 6 we will hear the plan to accomplish this.. Long the way to go now!!
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Post by EveningOfTheDay on Oct 29, 2015 16:14:01 GMT -5
KC, I guess it is within the logical possibilities that Sanofi priced Afrezza higher knowing that sales would be hurt, although not knowing how much exactly, counting on the fact that a change on the label would justify that premium price. They could have lower the price from the get go, but they would have never been able to rise it later, so this could be part of a course of action with somewhat expected consequences. |
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Post by bioexec25 on Oct 29, 2015 16:14:56 GMT -5
Is the glass half full or half empty? SNY might have lowered their expectation and estimates, but at least it's thru 2018. Doesn't sound like they are dropping Afrezza in 2 months. I guess we should find out more Nov 6 Ash suppose I'll go with half full. But oh my Buddha is this one complicated. I recall the portfolio discussions at Gilead and the decisions often are very surprising to those not directly crunching, analyzing and applying a lot of critical thinking. The quality of discussion on this board is excellent (most of the time) :-), I recall so many variables and assumptions many of which investors simply are not in the loop on. I have seen exec teams make strategic assumptions and right or wrong it completely changed the outcome. It is definitely an imperfect process. Finance, Comnercial, and R&D have different drivers and as many of you know, integration of variables without bias is complicated to say the least. I sure hope Sny sticks with this and in fact doubles down as I feel ultimately it's going to take a lot more money than was predicted. I would love to be the proverbial fly on the wall in those portfolio mgmt meetings. GLTA. Btw, today was brutal. :-)) |
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Post by kc on Oct 29, 2015 16:19:53 GMT -5
Without better insurance coverage it has to be nearly impossible to give guidance. If management knew they most likely would provide it. Investors need to accept it for what it is; if one is losing sleep, MannKind is not a proper investment. Its all about the pricing of the Drug. They don't want to be a commodity in the first 12 month or 24 months of distribution. The Insurance carriers know how to beat the crap out of Sanofi for best pricing so you have to be patient for the sales or you will end up giving the product away as a commodity drug. |
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Post by mssciguy on Oct 29, 2015 16:22:51 GMT -5
I guess it is within the logical possibilities that Sanofi priced Afrezza higher it's totally within SNY's power to negotiate with the insurance companies (all 7000 plans). Last night there was a show on TCM, "It's a mad mad mad world" -- old flick -- Still very mad with that many insurance plans. Crazy mad, not angry mad.... |
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Oct 29, 2015 16:41:05 GMT -5
Is the glass half full or half empty? SNY might have lowered their expectation and estimates, but at least it's thru 2018. Doesn't sound like they are dropping Afrezza in 2 months. I guess we should find out more Nov 6 Ash suppose I'll go with half full. But oh my Buddha is this one complicated. I recall the portfolio discussions at Gilead and the decisions often are very surprising to those not directly crunching, analyzing and applying a lot of critical thinking. The quality of discussion on this board is excellent (most of the time) :-), I recall so many variables and assumptions many of which investors simply are not in the loop on. I have seen exec teams make strategic assumptions and right or wrong it completely changed the outcome. It is definitely an imperfect process. Finance, Comnercial, and R&D have different drivers and as many of you know, integration of variables without bias is complicated to say the least. I sure hope Sny sticks with this and in fact doubles down as I feel ultimately it's going to take a lot more money than was predicted. I would love to be the proverbial fly on the wall in those portfolio mgmt meetings. GLTA. Btw, today was brutal. :-)) Take a lot more money for what? You believe SNY significantly misjudged something regarding... formulary? doctors? patients? If Afrezza actually provides significant clinical benefit, which it would seem to, wouldn't 65% of profit be something SNY would be very foolish to pass up? You seem to know something about the drug industry, so I'd be very interested in getting more insight into how you think it might be possible for SNY to make the strategic decision to let Afrezza flounder. |
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Post by mnkdorbust on Oct 29, 2015 16:47:45 GMT -5
Maybe i've had too much Kool-Aid but i feel strongly that SNY would be foolish not to leverage Afrezza and it's potential not only for their own declining sales and market share but for the diabetic world as well.
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Post by kc on Oct 29, 2015 17:12:31 GMT -5
Maybe i've had too much Kool-Aid but i feel strongly that SNY would be foolish not to leverage Afrezza and it's potential not only for their own declining sales and market share but for the diabetic world as well. Correct that will take time perhaps a couple of years to prove out its efficacy as a game changing drug. Until then or Buy In by Sanofi we will have more of the same. I think that Sanofi knows this will be a block buster drug in time. |
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Post by bioexec25 on Oct 29, 2015 18:00:09 GMT -5
Ash suppose I'll go with half full. But oh my Buddha is this one complicated. I recall the portfolio discussions at Gilead and the decisions often are very surprising to those not directly crunching, analyzing and applying a lot of critical thinking. The quality of discussion on this board is excellent (most of the time) :-), I recall so many variables and assumptions many of which investors simply are not in the loop on. I have seen exec teams make strategic assumptions and right or wrong it completely changed the outcome. It is definitely an imperfect process. Finance, Comnercial, and R&D have different drivers and as many of you know, integration of variables without bias is complicated to say the least. I sure hope Sny sticks with this and in fact doubles down as I feel ultimately it's going to take a lot more money than was predicted. I would love to be the proverbial fly on the wall in those portfolio mgmt meetings. GLTA. Btw, today was brutal. :-)) Take a lot more money for what? You believe SNY significantly misjudged something regarding... formulary? doctors? patients? If Afrezza actually provides significant clinical benefit, which it would seem to, wouldn't 65% of profit be something SNY would be very foolish to pass up? You seem to know something about the drug industry, so I'd be very interested in getting more insight into how you think it might be possible for SNY to make the strategic decision to let Afrezza flounder. Dreamboat, No more insight available DBC as I like most (all) on this board aren't in those meetings. But I never said they will let it "flounder" those are your words. I said that business decisions that are made in portfolio meetings include a multitude of variables and assumptions with varying degrees of analytical support with data is known and unknown by us investors. I hope they don't let it "flounder" but insufficient data to tell that right now. So I'm long like many and hope they get it but let's face it they don't have a perfect record with launches nor portfolio mgmt. |
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Post by alethea on Oct 30, 2015 9:55:34 GMT -5
Is the glass half full or half empty? SNY might have lowered their expectation and estimates, but at least it's thru 2018. Doesn't sound like they are dropping Afrezza in 2 months. I guess we should find out more Nov 6 I doubt it. I don't expect them to say much of substance. Everything remains secret. |
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Post by kc on Oct 30, 2015 10:12:03 GMT -5
Its a pricing war and Sanofi knows how the game is played with payers. All of the drug companies are under pressure to cut their prices. The payer's shun them until they get what the want or their drug proves out to be superior, less side effects and less complications.
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