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Post by savzak on Oct 29, 2015 11:24:36 GMT -5
I think it's beyond serious question that Afrezza works magnificently. What is causing me pause is definitely not the product itself which is clearly wonderful. I'm not personally even losing patience. I can wait for blockbuster status, but I'm not so sure how long Mannkind's balance sheet will allow the company to wait. My concern relates to whether Mannkind can reach positive cash flow on its current financing. SNY's comments today would seem to shed a negative light on those prospects because they tend to indicate that SNY's already not very high short term expectations for Afrezza may not be met in reality. SNY is in the best position to know what is likely to happen to Afrezza's sales over the next few quarters and if they are walking back their already not so impressive expectations, what does that say about MNKD's likely need for more cash before it reaches profitability?
I'd appreciate any insights on this issue from the board. Thanks. |
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Post by peppy on Oct 29, 2015 11:38:01 GMT -5
I do note have in sight.
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"2015-2018 Diabetes outlook
Accounting for recent market trends, Sanofi now projects global diabetes sales over the period
of 2015-2018 to decline at an average annualized rate of between 4% and 8% at CER. Sanofi
will mitigate the impact of this revised sales expectation on its business operating income by
2018 and will present the mid-term strategic and financial outlook for the Group on November
6, 2015
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Sanofi could more than make up their loss in sales with Lantus, with Afrezza in the USA. So what basal doses are cut in half? Sanofi makes 65% on the drug that allows the basal to be cut in half. Sanofi knows this. Europe should be right around the corner. hmmm
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Post by Deleted on Oct 29, 2015 11:51:52 GMT -5
MannKind right-sized the company for lower sales. My recommendation is to wait until Q3 cc for guidance.
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Post by peppy on Oct 29, 2015 11:52:01 GMT -5
I think it's beyond serious question that Afrezza works magnificently. What is causing me pause is definitely not the product itself which is clearly wonderful. I'm not personally even losing patience. I can wait for blockbuster status, but I'm not so sure how long Mannkind's balance sheet will allow the company to wait. My concern relates to whether Mannkind can reach positive cash flow on its current financing. SNY's comments today would seem to shed a negative light on those prospects because they tend to indicate that SNY's already not very high short term expectations for Afrezza may not be met in reality. SNY is in the best position to know what is likely to happen to Afrezza's sales over the next few quarters and if they are walking back their already not so impressive expectations, what does that say about MNKD's likely need for more cash before it reaches profitability?
I'd appreciate any insights on this issue from the board. Thanks. Agreed, (Plan B, C, D, and E are needed.) repeating myself, I hope mankind has another drug to use with technosphere on this earnings announcement. An agreement and milestone payments from another partnership would help. I do not think mannkind earned any further milestone payments from sanofi. we will see.
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Post by rrtzmd on Oct 29, 2015 11:52:49 GMT -5
I think it's beyond serious question that Afrezza works magnificently. What is causing me pause is definitely not the product itself which is clearly wonderful. I'm not personally even losing patience. I can wait for blockbuster status, but I'm not so sure how long Mannkind's balance sheet will allow the company to wait. My concern relates to whether Mannkind can reach positive cash flow on its current financing. SNY's comments today would seem to shed a negative light on those prospects because they tend to indicate that SNY's already not very high short term expectations for Afrezza may not be met in reality. SNY is in the best position to know what is likely to happen to Afrezza's sales over the next few quarters and if they are walking back their already not so impressive expectations, what does that say about MNKD's likely need for more cash before it reaches profitability?
I'd appreciate any insights on this issue from the board. Thanks. Indeed, my own rough calculations suggest that by January MNKD will have about 180 million in debt -- figuring about 50 million on the Sanofi loan. Of course, they still have the 20-25 million a year obligation to buy insulin from Amphastar. Not counting those expenses, there's still the "burn" of 15-20 give or take million a quarter. Although milestones might be on the way, I posted in the "thoughts sanofis right terminate agreement" why those may be a long way away. Based on the recent debt settlement problems, neither Al nor anyone else seems willing to step in and lend a hand and/or money. So in the meantime, what's MNKD to do to pay the bills? At this point the long term success of afrezza seems irrelevant to Mannkind's current problems. |
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Post by centralcoastinvestor on Oct 29, 2015 12:03:54 GMT -5
I think it's beyond serious question that Afrezza works magnificently. What is causing me pause is definitely not the product itself which is clearly wonderful. I'm not personally even losing patience. I can wait for blockbuster status, but I'm not so sure how long Mannkind's balance sheet will allow the company to wait. My concern relates to whether Mannkind can reach positive cash flow on its current financing. SNY's comments today would seem to shed a negative light on those prospects because they tend to indicate that SNY's already not very high short term expectations for Afrezza may not be met in reality. SNY is in the best position to know what is likely to happen to Afrezza's sales over the next few quarters and if they are walking back their already not so impressive expectations, what does that say about MNKD's likely need for more cash before it reaches profitability?
I'd appreciate any insights on this issue from the board. Thanks. My big issue is that everyone keeps talking about lowering their expectations. From what? Neither Mnkd or Sanofi have ever stated what their original expectation was or what the new expectation is. Without concrete goals to measure against, naysayers have all the ammunition they need to pound the stock. I say just put out the real "lowered expectation" target so we have a base to measure from. This absense of any concrete public plan is killing us. |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 29, 2015 12:09:16 GMT -5
Without better insurance coverage it has to be nearly impossible to give guidance. If management knew they most likely would provide it. Investors need to accept it for what it is; if one is losing sleep, MannKind is not a proper investment.
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Post by mnholdem on Oct 29, 2015 13:11:42 GMT -5
savzak,
I think this board has sliced & diced how long MannKind's operating cash may last, but you're right. Cash is THE reason for concern.
Another partnership with an upfront payment would be a welcome announcement right about now. Not for Afrezza but for one of our other TS drugs.
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Post by babaoriley on Oct 29, 2015 13:40:34 GMT -5
"SNY's comments today would seem to shed a negative light on those prospects because they tend to indicate that SNY's already not very high short term expectations for Afrezza may not be met in reality." Savzak, can you elaborate on the above comment? I was unaware of any knowledge of SNY's expectations prior to today, other than the "measured launch" stuff, and perhaps that is to what you are referring. Does everyone want to hear more on Afrezza from SNY? LOL! Almost every bit of anticipated news that we thought might be good over the last 6 months or so has been mediocre to bad. I'm going to have to drastically cut my estimation of the overall intelligence and investment acumen of this Board!  |
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Post by savzak on Oct 29, 2015 13:50:25 GMT -5
"SNY's comments today would seem to shed a negative light on those prospects because they tend to indicate that SNY's already not very high short term expectations for Afrezza may not be met in reality." Savzak, can you elaborate on the above comment? I was unaware of any knowledge of SNY's expectations prior to today, other than the "measured launch" stuff, and perhaps that is to what you are referring. Does everyone want to hear more on Afrezza from SNY? LOL! Almost every bit of anticipated news that we thought might be good over the last 6 months or so has been mediocre to bad. I'm going to have to drastically cut my estimation of the overall intelligence and investment acumen of this Board! Baba, your point is well taken. When I wrote that, I was thinking about the next few quarters and not the next 3 years which was really SNY's frame of reference. Unfortunately, your point doesn't really alleviate the concern. At bottom, SNY is expressing that it has lower expectations for Afrezza over the next 3 years. I think it's safe to assume that our target date for breaking even isn't likely moving up on the calendar. |
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Oct 29, 2015 13:50:23 GMT -5
I think it's beyond serious question that Afrezza works magnificently. What is causing me pause is definitely not the product itself which is clearly wonderful. I'm not personally even losing patience. I can wait for blockbuster status, but I'm not so sure how long Mannkind's balance sheet will allow the company to wait. My concern relates to whether Mannkind can reach positive cash flow on its current financing. SNY's comments today would seem to shed a negative light on those prospects because they tend to indicate that SNY's already not very high short term expectations for Afrezza may not be met in reality. SNY is in the best position to know what is likely to happen to Afrezza's sales over the next few quarters and if they are walking back their already not so impressive expectations, what does that say about MNKD's likely need for more cash before it reaches profitability?
I'd appreciate any insights on this issue from the board. Thanks. With the info we have we don't have any idea what the expectations were or what they now are, even taking the stated reduction in expectation at face value... and unclear if one should even take at face value. Unless the conspiracy theories are correct, it would seem logical that SNY expectations probably involve a change in trajectory of prescription growth at some point... i.e. formulary and number of docs prescribing starting to increase. The timing of this seems critical... and we've not yet seen any indication of it. I would hope, and indeed believe, that MNKD would not have gotten into the deal unless they had the milestones and loan facility structured so that they could make it through the anticipated process with some cash flow to spare. It is a very valid question as to whether they still anticipate that or whether reality is now forcing an adjustment in expectations of when these impediments will be resolved. What is there level of confidence in their liquidity position vs this timeline? It would be good to have this addressed by MNKD on CC... I'm not overly hopeful they will. |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 29, 2015 14:42:27 GMT -5
If there's no new partnership developments or some other event that brings in cash, they will get cash critical by the end of 2016. Mind you, they won't be out of cash, but they will be close enough to the edge that the sirens will sound and their ability to raise more cash will be seriously hampered. Greece can still raise money but at what cost to greece? Same with mnkd by the end of 2016.
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Post by liane on Oct 29, 2015 15:07:08 GMT -5
OK - let's stay on topic; no personal attacks.
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Post by ashiwi on Oct 29, 2015 15:15:11 GMT -5
Is the glass half full or half empty?
SNY might have lowered their expectation and estimates, but at least it's thru 2018.
Doesn't sound like they are dropping Afrezza in 2 months.
I guess we should find out more Nov 6
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Post by kc on Oct 29, 2015 15:40:50 GMT -5
I think it's beyond serious question that Afrezza works magnificently. What is causing me pause is definitely not the product itself which is clearly wonderful. I'm not personally even losing patience. I can wait for blockbuster status, but I'm not so sure how long Mannkind's balance sheet will allow the company to wait. My concern relates to whether Mannkind can reach positive cash flow on its current financing. SNY's comments today would seem to shed a negative light on those prospects because they tend to indicate that SNY's already not very high short term expectations for Afrezza may not be met in reality. SNY is in the best position to know what is likely to happen to Afrezza's sales over the next few quarters and if they are walking back their already not so impressive expectations, what does that say about MNKD's likely need for more cash before it reaches profitability?
I'd appreciate any insights on this issue from the board. Thanks. I think before the balance sheet got that bad that Sanofi would do a buy in to protect their investment in this partner. If Afrezza is that good of a drug and they see the long picture than they would not let MannKind fail. Its the REGN or ALNY investment situation. Afrezza's problem is pricing. You don't give the Carriers your best price until you have too. So this is a waiting game of Chicken or the egg. |
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