|
|
Post by dreamboatcruise on Oct 29, 2015 18:49:16 GMT -5
They time these raids to capitalize on investors not being able to quickly digest information (good, bad or neutral isn't that significant) fast enough to take advantage of the opportunity or to come up withan opinion. Investors think (reinforced by the usual basher trolls) that it must be bad simply because they didn't listen to the call or didn't understand what was said (this is mostly done when scientific data is shared). This CC gave us no info we did not have before. We learnt nothing new yet the spin (proportional to the intentity of the bear raid) was extraordinairily negative. The panic was about the share price not anything new no?According to AF headline Sanofi is losing patience with itself. Before that I didn't realize Sanofi had multiple corporate personality disorder whereby one of its personas is severely disappointed in another one... so that's something new. AF must be an expert corporate shrink to have discerned that reading between the lines of the CC... it certainly slipped by me with a less sophisticated ear. |
|
|
|
Post by savzak on Oct 29, 2015 19:22:02 GMT -5
They time these raids to capitalize on investors not being able to quickly digest information (good, bad or neutral isn't that significant) fast enough to take advantage of the opportunity or to come up withan opinion. Investors think (reinforced by the usual basher trolls) that it must be bad simply because they didn't listen to the call or didn't understand what was said (this is mostly done when scientific data is shared). This CC gave us no info we did not have before. We learnt nothing new yet the spin (proportional to the intentity of the bear raid) was extraordinairily negative. The panic was about the share price not anything new no? I disagree. SNY revealed that they are reducing their outlook for Afrezza sales for the next three years. That is certainly information we did not have. Using myself as an example, to the extent I "panicked", it happened between 6:30 and 9:30 eastern before the open while I tried to decide how to react to this new information I didn't have before the SNY press release. |
|
|
|
Post by jpg on Oct 29, 2015 19:32:22 GMT -5
They time these raids to capitalize on investors not being able to quickly digest information (good, bad or neutral isn't that significant) fast enough to take advantage of the opportunity or to come up withan opinion. Investors think (reinforced by the usual basher trolls) that it must be bad simply because they didn't listen to the call or didn't understand what was said (this is mostly done when scientific data is shared). This CC gave us no info we did not have before. We learnt nothing new yet the spin (proportional to the intentity of the bear raid) was extraordinairily negative. The panic was about the share price not anything new no? I disagree. SNY revealed that they are reducing their outlook for Afrezza sales for the next three years. That is certainly information we did not have. Using myself as an example, to the extent I "panicked", it happened between 6:30 and 9:30 eastern before the open while I tried to decide how to react to this new information I didn't have before the SNY press release. Did they reduce their expectations specifically for Afrezza or for a grouping of drugs and diagnostics while getting hit by earlier generic competition than they had anticipated? That was my personal interpretation but so somehow it is now all Afrezza's fault? And not knowing their baseline sales scenario it is hard to figure out much really. I guess it's easy to read what we want (to match our inner level of fear). Again it's not as if diabetic drugs can simply be pulled out of a hat; let alone innovative and highly effective new drugs. As I keep on repeating the medical world beats to a much slower drum beat than the retail investor world... What else are they going to use (discover and invent) in the next 6 months or so to fill the gap? As we all know it takes 10 years... And is anyone surprised that Sanofi was expecting better sales? This certainly did not surprise me either. Why would this be new info? Mannkind (and by extension Sanofi) has clearly stated this a lng time ago. |
|
|
|
Post by dreamboatcruise on Oct 29, 2015 19:32:57 GMT -5
savzak... but we have no clue what magnitude that reduction is. Is it 5% or 50% or as the FUD would have it 100%.
|
|
|
|
Post by mnholdem on Oct 29, 2015 19:55:57 GMT -5
This question is not directly Afrezza-related, but did any of you wonder if the "de-priorization" of Sanofi's CGM has anything to do with Google?
|
|
|
|
Post by savzak on Oct 29, 2015 19:58:08 GMT -5
savzak... but we have no clue what magnitude that reduction is. Is it 5% or 50% or as the FUD would have it 100%. Deamboat, I agree but we're already locked into a race against time between our cash and achieving sales adequate to break even. As a long, I've already had to adjust to the fact that sales didn't ramp as exected. Then, I had to come to terms with the fact that MNKD and SNY acknowledged that they were wrong about the initial ramp and had to make adjustments to deal with the impediments to sales. Now I have to digest the information that SNY is reducing its outlook for Afrezza sales over the next three years. Regardless of whether it's a 5% reduction or a 50% reduction, what does it say about how we're doing in that race against time? |
|
|
|
Post by dreamboatcruise on Oct 29, 2015 20:23:20 GMT -5
savzak... I suggest a shot of Frenet-Branca if you're having trouble with digesting the info... classic Italian "digestif". It may take more than one shot. Eventually you'll find those feelings of angst drift away.  It's easy too imagine the statement has more content than it really does. I have an emotional response to it, but when I chew on it, I realize it is almost content free with regard to specifics we can attribute to MNKD. I spit it out before trying to digest.
|
|
|
|
Post by mnkdnut on Oct 29, 2015 20:36:51 GMT -5
I agree with Savzak. The news that Sanofi has come out and said they are lowering their Afrezza forecast for the next 3 years based on disappointing sales (so far) was new for me too. This tells me their market introduction strategy is not working out as well as previously envisioned. So now, November 6 looms large, as we’ll find out a bit more on how they are going to fix it. Are they just going to cut back on expenses to match the lowered forecast? Or, are they going to double down and give Afrezza a stronger role in making up for the Lantus downdraft? Hopefully, they won’t be too cryptic or evasive when it comes to Afrezza.
The announcement of the new Praluent trial was also interesting news. Praluent already seems to be in a much stronger position in terms of showing the data necessary for Tier 2 listings, not to mention readiness for other major geographical markets. Including Afrezza in the Praluent trial is nice, but where’s the announcement of a targeted study to show the true clinical benefits of Afrezza alone? Without that, it will remain very difficult to get to Tier 2 relying on the FDA non-inferiority data. This is the most troubling thing for me.
The one big black hole in assessing MNKD’s prospects remains Sanofi’s hidden outlook and intentions regarding Afrezza. Do they really know what they have, and if so, do they care? If so, they have released no affirming information. Now we know the flat sales ramp is not what they had in mind, so we can toss out the idea it was all a grand plan to build a proper foundation as a springboard. I don’t think it’s too much to ask for a little positive affirmation – if they have the positive outlook we believe they should.
From a sales standpoint, there’s no reason a salesforce like Sanofi’s should not be able to grow it month to month at this early stage just out of sheer brute force effort. Aren’t there enough diabetics who have serious problems with needles to break through this 500 or so a week quagmire? I suspect it’s because the salesforce has been summoned back to defend Lantus share at all costs.
If Sanofi’s plan is to take a 5-10 year approach to making Afrezza a blockbuster (indicating a lower priority program), then I think the pressure to buy out Afrezza from MNKD goes up. They won’t want to deal with MNKD management and shareholders who have a far less patience for this type of approach! At a reasonable price, that would be a silver lining.
Prior to today, I thought the buyout scenario much less likely.
|
|
|
|
Post by lmj on Oct 30, 2015 8:58:11 GMT -5
You guys can spin it positively however you want. Fact is as a long we got "jacked" but these punks who run the company. I hope they and their families feel it too financially like we are. I am tired of these lame ***** who run the company.
|
|
|
|
Post by mssciguy on Oct 30, 2015 9:11:46 GMT -5
You guys can spin it positively however you want. Fact is as a long we got "jacked" but these punks who run the company. I hope they and their families feel it too financially like we are. I am tired of these lame ***** who run the company. -- there is more going on with MNKD than just Afrezza. And there is more going on with Afrezza than gets talked about publicly by SNY and MNKD both (quiet period): Clamp study results in but not published, long term pediatric trial ... The silence is deafening. These folks are better at keeping secrets than many people who are paid to do just that in other places! If you are upset about stock price there is something you can do, report the SHO violations to SEC and make yourself heard like many of us have. Maybe someone at SEC will click their mouse and start an investigation, finally. |
|
|
|
Post by dreamboatcruise on Oct 30, 2015 10:27:24 GMT -5
mssciguy... it may well be a problem worth complaining about to SEC, but I kinda doubt SHO violations are significantly impacting price moves over periods of days or weeks. Naked shorting may indeed be a significant contributor to the severity of some of the bear raids we've seen such as yesterday mid day. There, the ability to create fake shares may well overwhelm the real buyers over a very short time frame. The trend over many days, however, I think is driven by emotions of longs of where they feel comfortable buying. Unfortunately, after the SNY CC and with the FUD that followed, that point has now yet again been reset lower... after having had a bit of a movement up on the perceived as positive TASE listing (indicating at least a proactive management even if the significance not fully understood). You've seen postings right here from longs indicating they have bought shares when it gets around $3. Like it or not, even among diehard MNKD fans, the general expectation now is that $3 is a good buying point... that makes it easy for the shorts to push it down to there. If we aren't gobbling up more shares in the upper $4's over the past few days, there likely isn't a huge pool of other buyers willing to do it. The flow of FUD/news right now means drift back down to support levels... no naked shares needed (IMHO).
|
|
|
|
Post by mssciguy on Oct 30, 2015 10:41:44 GMT -5
dreamboatcruise prntscr.com/8x3e4sManipulation through naked shorting is illegal. It should be reported. This is financial terrorism. Seriously. Preying on emotions like this, without any oversight by SEC despite the fact that manipulation of equity prices through naked shorting is illegal, should be stopped before the cancer spreads.
|
|
|
|
Post by jpg on Oct 30, 2015 11:02:52 GMT -5
They use illegal short selling to reset the price and we buyers take this into consideration when buying. Emotionally destabilizing bear raids would be much harder if it were not for naked shorting. I agree this type of activity is 'financial terrorism' and is destructive to faith in markets. It goes against the reason as to why capital markets exist.
I would much rather trade and invest in a market where there is less rather than more illegal naked short selling. Sadly that is not an option right now.
Illigal naked shorting is sadly priced into most small biotech stocks hit by these criminals. It is what it is...
|
|
|
|
Post by mssciguy on Oct 30, 2015 11:09:44 GMT -5
They use illegal short selling to reset the price and we buyers take this into consideration when buying. Emotionally destabilizing bear raids would be much harder if it were not for naked shorting. I agree this type of activity is 'financial terrorism' and is destructive to faith in markets. It goes against the reason as to why capital markets exist. I would much rather trade and invest in a market where there is less rather than more illegal naked short selling. Sadly that is not an option right now. Illigal naked shorting is sadly priced into most small biotech stocks hit by these criminals. It is what it is... Agree, HFT and shorting is justified by many as making markets more "liquid" but I don't see that here at all. If anything, longs are being held hostage due to manipulation of price and their initial investment is reduced in value while "the street" continues to extract value by yo-yoing the price at will with their machines. On the lighter side, a nice graph from stocktwits prntscr.com/8x3syx |
|
|
|
Post by dreamboatcruise on Oct 30, 2015 11:48:14 GMT -5
Valid points. Extreme volatility, partially enabled by naked shorting, does have detrimental effects in and of itself.
However, even looking at yesterday's bear raid, in hindsight it now seems obvious that shares were being borrowed, driving up borrowing interest rates, in the days before the CC, likely being held rather than immediately shorted in order to unleash them as the powerful intra-day raid we saw. So I think MNKD is a stock that currently would be susceptible to these tactics even without the extra punch of naked shorting. But I fully agree that the trading practices of Wall Street need to be cleaned up. Perhaps MNKD would not be such a broken stock if it weren't for loose regulation enabling manipulation and thus risk reduction for those willing to operate on the fringes of legality/illegality.
|
|
