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Post by Deleted on Nov 4, 2015 7:52:42 GMT -5
No surprise as Sanofi presents Friday and MannKind's earnings on Monday, shorts need assistance to keep the price down as I expect good news to be delivered from the two events.
Longs: keep the faith, our time will eventually arrive.
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Post by suebeeee1 on Nov 4, 2015 8:35:20 GMT -5
I was waiting to get a chance to buy more shares around $2.50. Today may be the day. It seems to me, with news about to break, shorts are obviously going to try and cover quickly. The only way they can do that is if we all give them our shares in a panic. I agree. Stay strong and buy as much as you possibly can!
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Post by lakers on Nov 4, 2015 12:55:29 GMT -5
m.benzinga.com/article/5960594?utm_referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com%2FRBC Capital Markets’ proprietary physician survey indicated that physicians are not overly concerned about Afrezza’s safety or efficacy and most are willing to prescribe it upon patient request. However, there seems to be low patient interest, or awareness. Moreover, Afrezza prescriptions “appear to get lost due to payer hurdles,” analyst Adnan Butt said. Physicians perceive Afrezza and patient-out-of-pocket costs to be higher than other insulin products. The survey indicates that market share growth in the future could be modest, in the 13-22 percent range annually. Butt added that Afrezza’s total addressable market opportunity does remain significant. IMS prescription data indicates that although Afrezza weekly prescriptions have continued to rise, its growth is modest and it has negligible market share. Sales reported by Sanofi SA (ADR) (NYSE: SNY) were about €1 million in 1Q15, €2 million in 2Q and €2 million in 3Q. The company indicated that its future sales could also be impacted by lower-than-expected Afrezza result. “Hurdles include modest patient interest/ awareness, cost and access issues, and slow growth. SNY, if committed, could still deliver if it addresses overhangs identified. However, with uncertainty around when the collaboration achieves profitability and MNKD’s balance sheet, we reduce our PT to $1 and downgrade to UP,” Butt wrote.
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Post by mnkdorbust on Nov 4, 2015 13:29:59 GMT -5
I agree subeeee1. Maneuvered some dry powder and just waiting for the right time (although every time i think it's right and buy it drops another 20 cents or so). Not that 20 cents here or there means a whole lot for a long term investment, it just makes you feel better when you buy at the bottom. #AveragingDown  |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 4, 2015 13:30:12 GMT -5
Would be interesting to read the number and kind of physicians surveyed.
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Post by bradleysbest on Nov 4, 2015 13:36:36 GMT -5
The problem is if we do NOT get any good news this week from SNY or MNKD! How low do we go?
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Post by mnkdorbust on Nov 4, 2015 13:38:44 GMT -5
I'm sure the analyst at minimum called the help line listed in the operation game manual or questioned those dressed up as Doctors at a local halloween party for the survey.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 4, 2015 14:12:33 GMT -5
Would be interesting to read the number and kind of physicians surveyed. You are assuming they surveyed more than one physician. :) |
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Post by kball on Nov 4, 2015 14:18:27 GMT -5
Would be interesting to read the number and kind of physicians surveyed. You are assuming they surveyed more than one physician. Didn't they indicate 51 as the # of doctors? |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 4, 2015 14:21:17 GMT -5
You are assuming they surveyed more than one physician. :) Didn't they indicate 51 as the # of doctors? If they spoke to 51 then my bad. Still, the N that 51 represents isn't a sample size I would put a lot of stock in. How many endos and GP / Primary Care docs in the US? |
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Post by compound26 on Nov 4, 2015 14:54:41 GMT -5
Didn't they indicate 51 as the # of doctors? If they spoke to 51 then my bad. Still, the N that 51 represents isn't a sample size I would put a lot of stock in. How many endos and GP / Primary Care docs in the US?
I view this as something positive in the report. Assuming they actually surveyed 51 physicians. 51 is not that a small number (notice that we currently only have around 90 physicians listed in Sam's Afrezza-prescribing physicians). So what did the analyst see? He saw " current usage reported by our survey respondents is higher; however, our sample size is small (N=51) and it correlates neither with IMS data nor reported sales." To me, his survey (of 51 physicians, if that is the case) suggests that current demand/consumption for Afrezza is picking up and therefore correlates neither with IMS data (which has been slow, but actually has recorded some upticks in recent weeks) nor reported sales (which only captures sales through 30 Sept.). And this observation is consistent with the information we saw in this post, " these past two weeks the PA request near doubled..." Considering that the DTC print ads started to appear in the beginning of August and Vegas training were done in Sept., I would not be surprised to see continued uptick in scripts in the coming weeks. Back to the RBC report, after seeing the survey results, the analyst completely ignores this apparently conflicting information (from his survey) vs IMS data and reported sale. If that's his treatment of the survey result, then why bother with such a survey in the first place. |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 4, 2015 15:06:29 GMT -5
Then the analyst completely ignores this apparently conflicting information (from his survey) vs IMS data and reported sale. If that's his treatment of the survey result, then why bother with such a survey in the first place. To cause shareholders to sell before the Sanofi and MannKind calls. |
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Post by mnholdem on Nov 4, 2015 15:23:17 GMT -5
It seems to me that Adnan Butt writes the physicians surveyed said that they were okay with Afrezza and would prescribe it if the patient requests it. To me, that is very good news.
He places the blame squarely on Sanofi for not building awareness and getting 3rd Party Payer to cover Afrezza and he also seems to imply that studies to improve the label should have been started by now.
IMO - he's lighting a fire under Sanofi to get off their derrieres and git 'er done. |
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Post by savzak on Nov 4, 2015 15:38:45 GMT -5
It seems to me that Adnan Butt writes the physicians surveyed said that they were okay with Afrezza and would prescribe it if the patient requests it. To me, that is very good news.
He places the blame squarely on Sanofi for not building awareness and getting 3rd Party Payer to cover Afrezza and he also seems to imply that studies to improve the label should have been started by now.
IMO - he's lighting a fire under Sanofi to get off their derrieres and git 'er done. The problem is, if SNY knows what Butt wrote, they don't care what Butt wrote. So Butt won't light a fire under SNY's butt.
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Post by kball on Nov 4, 2015 16:50:33 GMT -5
If they spoke to 51 then my bad. Still, the N that 51 represents isn't a sample size I would put a lot of stock in. How many endos and GP / Primary Care docs in the US?
I view this as something positive in the report. Assuming they actually surveyed 51 physicians. 51 is not that a small number (notice that we currently only have around 90 physicians listed in Sam's Afrezza-prescribing physicians). So what did the analyst see? He saw " current usage reported by our survey respondents is higher; however, our sample size is small (N=51) and it correlates neither with IMS data nor reported sales." To me, his survey (of 51 physicians, if that is the case) suggests that current demand/consumption for Afrezza is picking up and therefore correlates neither with IMS data (which has been slow, but actually has recorded some upticks in recent weeks) nor reported sales (which only captures sales through 30 Sept.). And this observation is consistent with the information we saw in this post, " these past two weeks the PA request near doubled..."
Considering that the DTC print ads started to appear in the beginning of August and Vegas training were done in Sept., I would not be surprised to see continued uptick in scripts in the coming weeks.Back to the RBC report, after seeing the survey results, the analyst completely ignores this apparently conflicting information (from his survey) vs IMS data and reported sale. If that's his treatment of the survey result, then why bother with such a survey in the first place. Not to be a wet noodle (and i haven't confirmed) but i remember someone here (though don't remember who) posting just the other day that they haven't seen an ad in TIME in 5 weeks. And i hated reading that as its worrying to me--perhaps a case to be made Sanofi expending less effort ...unless they are changing up the ad campaign soon as one could hope |
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