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Post by greg on Nov 5, 2015 22:10:01 GMT -5
I'm quoting Rob here but this is addressed to so many others: Don't you folks get tired of predicting day to day price action to whatever is the news, rumor, or speculation of the day??? Rob, you in particular, have been wrong so many times, how many times have you suggested people add more shares because the stock has finally bottomed out and there's a clear trading range, and yet you continue to weight in daily with your predictions. Who cares what Sanofi says one day or another? We know Afrezza works, we know Sanofi is working on additional clinical trials to improve the label, we know the drug is important to the company's future, so why do we need constant reassurances?? And to the MNKD committed longs, why do we care about the price of the stock on a daily basis when we all know the magnitude of manipulation?? I know this board offers good info occasionally, which keeps me coming back, but I must say so much of what's posted is so tedious and juvenile. Enuff said, back to the real world. Greg: Great long-term view, but I disagree on some of your assumptions - 1.) "We know Afrezza works": Yes, we do, but that is a far cry from Insurance companies and Physicians being convinced that it works. That takes some serious clinical data (ie. label improvement) that we don't have right now. We also know it takes some time for patients and doctors to figure out how to individually dose Afrezza, so it takes some motivation and support to get it right. Saying "it works" is not enough. 2.) "We know Sanofi is working on additional clinical trials to improve the label". From the Trial announcements I've seen, none of them will improve the label in any meaningful way. 3.) "We know the drug is important to the company's future". We don't know that, they've never said that (unlike for Praluent), and the current CEO was not around when the deal with MNKD was made. What he has said is that they're lowering their forecast for Afrezza for the next 3 years. Not exactly two thumbs up. We don't need constant reassurance. What we need is basic confirmation that they have a global market penetration plan for Afrezza and that they are committed to it. I think that's a reasonable expectation from MNKD shareholders. MNKDNUT, I'm not sure which of my assumptions you disagree with, your comments notwithstanding. First, you do agree that Afrezza works, which is the most important thing about any drug. As for doctors and patients figuring things out, it takes time. Saying it works is actually enough. Second, I'm not sure how you can claim that none of the trials underway will help the label. Clearly, each one will, adding to the body of information supporting the drug's safety and efficacy. The pediatric study, just to take one example, would certainly go a long way towards further establishing the drug's safety, don't you think? After all, if the FDA allows a five year old to use Affrezza, won't that give others more confidence in its safety? Third, as for needing basic confirmation, Sanofi has paid MNDK some $200 million thus far, has invested millions on other activities to get the drug out to patients, I won't go into details, and has talked about the product on multiple occasions, in addition to highlighting it in both its latest annual report and the diabetes convention in Boston. What other "basic" confirmation do you want??? Would you want the new CEO to come and hold your hand every single day, whispering sweet nothings to you??? I don't disagree that MNKD could be more forthcoming with information but the constant whining of investors is irritating. Perhaps it would be more fruitful to look into why it's taking so long for reimbursement issues to be worked out. |
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Post by trenddiver on Nov 5, 2015 22:28:46 GMT -5
We'll see what tomorrow brings. All Sanofi has to do is say anything reasonably positive and MNKD could rebound sharply on Friday but I think a rebound would more likely happen on Monday. And, since there are certain investors who could buy a lot of shares on Sunday in Tel Aviv, there is a possible scenario where MNKD opens on the NASDAQ over $5 or $6 on Monday. Of course, holding that price may be a challenge since shorts seem willing to pay any price betting that MannKind will fail. I'm not saying that this will happen, only that it is within the realm of possibilities... Dreamin'!! |
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Post by bradleysbest on Nov 6, 2015 0:29:33 GMT -5
Don't see that unless a deal for a new TS application is leaked or announced.
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Post by jpg on Nov 6, 2015 0:39:23 GMT -5
Don't see that unless a deal for a new TS application is leaked or announced. Anyone hoping for a TS deal is setting themselves up for disapointment. They would have announced it asap and not waited for quarterly. |
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Post by robsacher on Nov 6, 2015 0:55:10 GMT -5
Friday will be a day of digestion and planning, I think. Monday will see the real action if there is good news tomorrow for MNKD.  We all have appreciated your writing and opinions very much! It's very difficult to do true publishing without anonymity, and it's great that you have the guts and talent for it. Not easy. That said, it's extremely difficult to be persuasive without having some hidden agenda like the click-bait-maestros and hedge-funds-frontmen. So I can easily see how grains of salt must be a big part of your diet! Someday, hopefully, a kind of "truthiness filter" will be available for our browsers and the Feuersteins and Shrekelis and Karps won't create such a huge need for viewpoints to counterbalance their selfish, greedy motivations. I am seriously thinking about maybe just going with a daily blog entry on blogspot or wordpress, like I've done with over a dozen topics over the past few years with a small but loyal global readership. If only there was a place to cross-reference legit, honest, competent posts, maybe with come nice relevant icons ... continuously updated as new facts roll in and old ones grow false. Too much noise, too much junk on the internet now, and it's getting worse. If we really have good (as in relevant, polite, balanced) things to say, why not post to a blog or website in addition to here or Seeking Alpha --- there are almost 10k followers of MNKD on stocktwitsnow --- keep the very best (and vetted) material in a central location, perhaps, and generate some revenue using ads, and guess what ------ maybe within a few months or a year, there will be enough in the piggy bank to hire a securities lawyer that can start some fires under SEC chairs .... Just a very rough idea, Rob... thanks again and have a wonderful weekend! That's a great idea. Follow your joy and use your talents to the best of your ability. And, remember that what you are doing, you do in support of something greater than yourself, something greater than profit. What you do, what we all do in support of MannKind, we do in support of progress, in support of making the world a better place for those who are suffering and for those who just want to live a life filled with normal things like eating a pizza without sticking a needle in their stomach and going to sleep without having to wake up and take a blood glucose measurement. Do it. I look forward to reading what you post. |
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Post by greg on Nov 7, 2015 1:35:33 GMT -5
Aloha Greg: I like how you look to the long term future, and point out that what really matters is; Afrezza works, and thus it sell well. That's right; consumers want the best, and diabetics are consumers. This Afrezza-ship will eventually right itself, and I'll still be on board sailing away. Daily, weekly, monthly, share price moves really don't matter much to me either. Mahalo for your views. Hi Denise, I realize folks like to bash management but paraphrasing Al Mann at the most recent annual meeting, make patients happy and everything else will work out. The rollout certainly has been slow but drug launches have their own rhythm. Gilead's sovaldi took off like a rocket ship because it was so superior to everything else and physicians were warehousing their patients in anticipation of the drug's availability. Moreover, insurers had no alternative but to cover, again because the drug's superiority was indisputable. Lots of other drugs, including Lantus, are far slower out of the chute, for a variety of reasons. Most of the hindering factors for Afrezza are well documented, so I won't bore you with them. I will elaborate on the biggest hurdle now, though, and that's insurance reimbursement... Having followed Afrezza's development for so long and so closely, we know it's a superior product. The data available to physicians and insurance companies state otherwise, however, so why should insurance companies rush to cover the product at a favorable tier, especially when it's a more expensive product. The education process will clearly take time. Clearly, the process will be facilitated by whatever additional data Sanofi generates, obviously assuming they are favorable. As to the nonsense about Sanofi abandoning the product, every mention of same has me shaking my head. I've been following the pharmaceutical sector for going on three decades and the number of commercialized drugs that were abandoned by a partner I can count on one hand. That short list, needless to say, includes Exubera, which was a horrible product. My mother has diabetes and may need to transition to insulin. She won't even test her blood glucose level cuz she hates pin pricks, let alone daily injections. I'm pre-diabetic but the notion of having to take insulin at some point in the future doesn't seem too onerous because I know Afrezza is available. Then take into consideration parents who have little children that are diabetic and need insulin. How appealing is option of an inhaled insulin versus multiple daily injections??? So, why would Sanofi abandon Afrezza??? Even if it proves to be a niche product, why abandon it?? There are lots of drugs in the market place that are far from blockbusters. As for the stock price, I won't look at it for weeks and come to find it's largely unchanged from the last time. So, why look at it every five minutes and stress out about meaningless ephemeral moves up and down. Incidentally, I have brother who's a physician in Honolulu, he loves Hawaii. You're a lucky woman. It's a dreary day in my neck of the woods, so I thought I would contribute my two cents. Not sure when this phrase was coined, but factoring in lots of inflation, the two cents is probably an accurate characterization of my contribution. |
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Post by mssciguy on Nov 7, 2015 13:55:25 GMT -5
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Post by Deleted on Nov 7, 2015 14:11:29 GMT -5
Excellent post Greg. I'm with you all the way on this. Mahalo for taking a moment to share your thoughts with me in such a concise manner. The road is long for Afrezza, but eventually we'll get there. I'm as long as they come for MNKD. Btw, I live on Kauai, (5 years now). I love it here. Aloha.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 7, 2015 15:02:50 GMT -5
Longs: do not lose hope, Afrezza is the real deal. Shorts are getting into many shareholders heads and forcing them to sell. If you are long and worried, sell a 2017 or 2018 call; it will hopefully earn your a profit instead of selling at a loss.
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