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Post by rockstarrick on Nov 6, 2015 13:29:03 GMT -5
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Post by blindhog1 on Nov 6, 2015 13:42:08 GMT -5
"Part of the new focus will include Praluent, Sanofi’s new cholesterol drug that launched in July, and another insulin project, Toujeo, and Aubagio and Lemtrada for multiple sclerosis. The company also signed a deal in August with Google/Alphabet’s Life Sciences to develop diabetes therapies and monitors. And although its inhaled insulin product developed with MannKind Corporation (MNKD) has gotten off to a slow start, many analysts think it’s only a matter of time before Sanofi works things out with insurers and the public gets hold of a diabetic treatment that doesn’t involve shots."
You should have been to the pajama party we had last night. When the charts were projected the crowd went wild. At that point Sanofi getting rid of MNKD was off the table. People were drinking beer and wine. If my nose didn't trick me more than a few Colorado folks were burning one. 
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Post by esstan2001 on Nov 6, 2015 13:42:52 GMT -5
I like the sound of this- Part of the new focus will include Praluent, Sanofi’s new cholesterol drug that launched in July, and another insulin project, Toujeo, and Aubagio and Lemtrada for multiple sclerosis. The company also signed a deal in August with Google/Alphabet’s Life Sciences to develop diabetes therapies and monitors. And although its inhaled insulin product developed with MannKind Corporation (MNKD) has gotten off to a slow start, many analysts think it’s only a matter of time before Sanofi works things out with insurers and the public gets hold of a diabetic treatment that doesn’t involve shots.
I was beaten by a blind hog (that may have even been hung over from celebrations last night )  |
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Post by blindhog1 on Nov 6, 2015 14:05:33 GMT -5
I was beaten by a blind hog (that may have even been hung over from celebrations last night ) |
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Sanofi
Nov 6, 2015 15:27:23 GMT -5
Post by trondisc on Nov 6, 2015 15:27:23 GMT -5
If Sanofi supports Afrezza long-term and stated today that Afrezza needs more time in the marketplace, why hasn't Sanofi taken a percentage/stake in MannKind or buyout Afrezza entirely? I'm long since 3.99 and every market week I wonder, with all the life changing testimonials online from Afrezza users accounted for, does Sanofi (the soon-to-be-former sandbagger...?) realize or respect what they really have? Toujeo and Apidra are not even praised by Type 1 & Type 2 user testimonials on the same level as Afrezza! Assuming Afrezza eventually captures the 1.1. million target in their presentation slide during today's earnings CC, why the hell would Sanofi wait years from now to purchase Afrezza and/or all of MannKind for 5x to 10x the price vs. how cheap they could seal a deal in 2015/2016? Afrezza could be bought for 6-7 billion or MannKind as a whole for 11-15 billion today!
The answers/reasons are simple... 1) Olivier Brandicourt is an economical moron who likes to overspend on game changing innovative technologies because he is not a visionary & has no concept of the future like Alphabet. 2) Olivier Brandicourt is an idiot and ignoring Afrezza users reporting "life changing" results over Toujeo and Apidra. 3) Olivier Brandicourt thinks Toujeo and Apidra are superior (roflmao) and will be preferred over Afrezza years from now. 4) Olivier Brandicourt doesn't truly believe in Afrezza despite the current & lame black box label, insurance hurdles, etc. #1 & #4 are the most likely. I'm especially perturbed because Hakan aloof Edstrom and Matthew puppeteer Pfeffer cannot hint any dissatisfaction with Sanofi until the 2016 contract expiration. |
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Post by luke233 on Nov 6, 2015 15:49:35 GMT -5
5) Sanofi in bed with Wall Street not allowed to stake or bo until told they can... Just a thought.
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Sanofi
Nov 6, 2015 15:55:23 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by lakers on Nov 6, 2015 15:55:23 GMT -5
Sny $46.46, down 3.96, 7.85%. So St must not like what they heard.
Mnkd is up a little now that the Flop was dealt allowing Mnkd to be in-play still.
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Sanofi
Nov 6, 2015 16:20:50 GMT -5
Post by dreamboatcruise on Nov 6, 2015 16:20:50 GMT -5
trondisc... I think it would be hard to justify $6B now to acquire the remaining 35% of Afrezza profit based on that 1.1 million patient pool. Let's say out of that addressable 1.1M, the argued they'd get 60%... that's 660 thousand patients. At $2000/yr that's $1.32B/yr. Using the MNKD implied 25% profit margin yields $330M in profit a year. MNKD share is $115.5M. SNY sports a 21 P/E. So by that calc it would be hard to justify more than about $2.4B (not even counting a discount factor for these sales being future)... if they could successful make the case to their shareholders that Afrezza would indeed capture a majority of that patient population. I suppose one could add in some of the unpaid milestone fees into that valuation as savings and come up with $3B. I'd be happy with that as a buy out. But doubt Al would. His time horizon is likely longer than mine (and he's 90)  Though both of us believe the target audience is really much larger than 1.1M patients.
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Post by me on Nov 6, 2015 16:27:51 GMT -5
trondisc... I think it would be hard to justify $6B now to acquire the remaining 35% of Afrezza profit based on that 1.1 million patient pool. Let's say out of that addressable 1.1M, the argued they'd get 60%... that's 660 thousand patients. At $2000/yr that's $1.32B/yr. Using the MNKD implied 25% profit margin yields $330M in profit a year. MNKD share is $115.5M. SNY sports a 21 P/E. So by that calc it would be hard to justify more than about $2.4B (not even counting a discount factor for these sales being future)... if they could successful make the case to their shareholders that Afrezza would indeed capture a majority of that patient population. I suppose one could add in some of the unpaid milestone fees into that valuation as savings and come up with $3B. I'd be happy with that as a buy out. But doubt Al would. His time horizon is likely longer than mine (and he's 90) Though both of us believe the target audience is really much larger than 1.1M patients. DBC, I think the "MNKD implied 25% profit margin," is Matt's description of the "equivalent royalty payment" that MNKD's 35% share in the JV is equal to. In other words, using your numbers, $1.32 billion a year equates to $330 million to MNKD. Put another way, $1.32 billion x 73% GP x 35% MNKD share = $337 million (and times 21 P/E = $7.1 billion valuation). |
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Sanofi
Nov 6, 2015 16:34:41 GMT -5
Post by compound26 on Nov 6, 2015 16:34:41 GMT -5
trondisc... I think it would be hard to justify $6B now to acquire the remaining 35% of Afrezza profit based on that 1.1 million patient pool. Let's say out of that addressable 1.1M, the argued they'd get 60%... that's 660 thousand patients. At $2000/yr that's $1.32B/yr. Using the MNKD implied 25% profit margin yields $330M in profit a year. MNKD share is $115.5M. SNY sports a 21 P/E. So by that calc it would be hard to justify more than about $2.4B (not even counting a discount factor for these sales being future)... if they could successful make the case to their shareholders that Afrezza would indeed capture a majority of that patient population. I suppose one could add in some of the unpaid milestone fees into that valuation as savings and come up with $3B. I'd be happy with that as a buy out. But doubt Al would. His time horizon is likely longer than mine (and he's 90) Though both of us believe the target audience is really much larger than 1.1M patients. dreamboatcruise, somehow I was under the impression that Mannkind's 25% is kindly of like a royalty rate. So if the total sales is $1.32B/yr., Mannkind's profit will be around $330M. In other words, I think Sanofi's profit margin for Afrezza will be much higher than 25% if sales is indeed $1.32B/yr. |
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Sanofi
Nov 6, 2015 16:55:11 GMT -5
Post by dreamboatcruise on Nov 6, 2015 16:55:11 GMT -5
compound26... the suggestion is regarding buying MNKD's stake in Afrezza. If the deal would push $X dollars to MNKD bottom line for that stake, why would it be a larger amount that would flow to SNY's bottom line for buying their stake out? We're not talking about the profit SNY currently will get from Afrezza... just the incremental profit of buying MNKD out. The difference in SNY finances would be saving the profit share going to MNKD, which is estimated by MNKD as being 25% of Afrezza revenue. Where is there any additional amount (besides saving the milestone payments) that would accrue to SNY bottom line if they bought out MNKD share?
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Sanofi
Nov 6, 2015 17:07:53 GMT -5
Post by compound26 on Nov 6, 2015 17:07:53 GMT -5
compound26... the suggestion is regarding buying MNKD's stake in Afrezza. If the deal would push $X dollars to MNKD bottom line for that stake, why would it be a larger amount that would flow to SNY's bottom line for buying their stake out? We're not talking about the profit SNY currently will get from Afrezza... just the incremental profit of buying MNKD out. The difference in SNY finances would be saving the profit share going to MNKD, which is estimated by MNKD as being 25% of Afrezza revenue. Where is there any additional amount (besides saving the milestone payments) that would accrue to SNY bottom line if they bought out MNKD share? DBC, I think it depends on how much Mannkind gets out of the total sales. Does Mannkind get $330MM out of $1.32B sales, or does it get $115M out of 1.32B sales. I hope it's $330MM, but you seem to think it is $115M. Hope we can at least get the $115M profit soon. |
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Nov 6, 2015 17:38:24 GMT -5
Darn it. Missed the hour window to delete my comment and act like I'm not math challenged.  Guess I shouldn't drink so much at work As Emily Litella would say... "Never Mind" |
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Sanofi
Nov 6, 2015 18:44:04 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by fedakd on Nov 6, 2015 18:44:04 GMT -5
compound26... the suggestion is regarding buying MNKD's stake in Afrezza. If the deal would push $X dollars to MNKD bottom line for that stake, why would it be a larger amount that would flow to SNY's bottom line for buying their stake out? We're not talking about the profit SNY currently will get from Afrezza... just the incremental profit of buying MNKD out. The difference in SNY finances would be saving the profit share going to MNKD, which is estimated by MNKD as being 25% of Afrezza revenue. Where is there any additional amount (besides saving the milestone payments) that would accrue to SNY bottom line if they bought out MNKD share? DBC, I think it depends on how much Mannkind gets out of the total sales. Does Mannkind get $330MM out of $1.32B sales, or does it get $115M out of 1.32B sales. I hope it's $330MM, but you seem to think it is $115M. Hope we can at least get the $115M profit soon. 25% is the royalty rate Matt has stated several times. So 330M is the correct number. At these earnings, MNKD is worth $17.04. However a 21 P/E is way too Conservative for the potential growth profile of MNKD, especially when you start adding in other markets. This is a mispriced asset and I keep buying. Derek |
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Post by afrizzle on Nov 6, 2015 19:26:31 GMT -5
Darn it. Missed the hour window to delete my comment and act like I'm not math challenged. Guess I shouldn't drink so much at work As Emily Litella would say... "Never Mind" Did you mean Rosanne Rosannadanna? |
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Though both of us believe the target audience is really much larger than 1.1M patients.
