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Post by inittowinit on Nov 9, 2015 17:10:42 GMT -5
Lol!
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Post by tayl5 on Nov 9, 2015 17:55:46 GMT -5
With the 50.000,000 share offering, I feel a sense of relief. Uncorking another bottle of red blend wine from Columbia Valley. Cheers! Agree with you, Kastanes. People can kvetch about the TASE deal but the bottom line is the "bankruptcy" drama is over and the shorts can only suck on the slim hope that lower than expected sales will eventually lead Sanofi to bail. It's hard to see how anyone could conclude given today's developments that further shorting makes sense. If sales rise, the stock price will rise. The natural order has been restored. We can all return to our regularly scheduled programming.
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Post by tonyz on Nov 9, 2015 18:08:30 GMT -5
With the 50.000,000 share offering, I feel a sense of relief. Uncorking another bottle of red blend wine from Columbia Valley. Cheers! Absolutely! And although dilutive to earnings this was probably the most shareholder friendly way to do it. Mannkind will be selling shares directly to the funds and essentially the funds will just hold them, not put them on the open market. Also they are not allowed to lend them short sellers. They will buy them in the next week or so if I heard correctly so I'm hoping we get a little move up in the next couple of days so Mannkind will get more money out of the deal.
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Post by cathode on Nov 9, 2015 18:14:09 GMT -5
With the 50.000,000 share offering, I feel a sense of relief. Uncorking another bottle of red blend wine from Columbia Valley. Cheers! Absolutely! And although dilutive to earnings this was probably the most shareholder friendly way to do it. Mannkind will be selling shares directly to the funds and essentially the funds will just hold them, not put them on the open market. Also they are not allowed to lend them short sellers. They will buy them in the next week or so if I heard correctly so I'm hoping we get a little move up in the next couple of days so Mannkind will get more money out of the deal. If the note conversion fiasco was any indication, the short interest will be putting in overtime to drive the share price down.
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Post by irrationalexubera on Nov 9, 2015 18:43:38 GMT -5
Absolutely! And although dilutive to earnings this was probably the most shareholder friendly way to do it. Mannkind will be selling shares directly to the funds and essentially the funds will just hold them, not put them on the open market. Also they are not allowed to lend them short sellers. They will buy them in the next week or so if I heard correctly so I'm hoping we get a little move up in the next couple of days so Mannkind will get more money out of the deal. If the note conversion fiasco was any indication, the short interest will be putting in overtime to drive the share price down. ditto. shorts gonna whack-a-mole this thing harder in the next 72 hours than we've seen yet. they're screwing MNKD's value in the secondary debt market and probably even hoping for a de-listing fiasco if they push it under a buck for long enough. i'll be adding in the next week pending on how it goes these next few days, but like others i'm a long-termer who will just have to weather the short-term noise which is growing louder now.
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Post by alethea on Nov 9, 2015 18:56:30 GMT -5
With the 50.000,000 share offering, I feel a sense of relief. Uncorking another bottle of red blend wine from Columbia Valley. Cheers! Absolutely! And although dilutive to earnings this was probably the most shareholder friendly way to do it. Mannkind will be selling shares directly to the funds and essentially the funds will just hold them, not put them on the open market. Also they are not allowed to lend them short sellers. They will buy them in the next week or so if I heard correctly so I'm hoping we get a little move up in the next couple of days so Mannkind will get more money out of the deal. Three trading days to set the price for trading on the TASE. Three more days for Shorts to drive the PPS down. Any guesses on Thursday's closing price? I wonder if they will (can) push it down to 2 or so. If $2 on Thursday, then 50M shares @ $2 equals $100M. Of that MNKD gets $97M after 3% transaction fee. Not even a full year's worth of cash outflow per what Matt said today. He said 10 to 12 million a month, MAYBE 8 to 10 after recent cutbacks take affect. I think we will see the PPS decline each of the next three days. I hope and pray I am wrong.
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Post by tonyz on Nov 9, 2015 19:04:09 GMT -5
The big argument the shorts are using is that Mannkind will run out of money before Afrezza becomes a commercial success. That seems to be off the table or at least far less likely now. I don't believe my understanding is clouded by my investment and I welcome different opinions, but ultimately how hard we root for or against MNKD has nothing to do with the success of the company or our investments. I for one was very happy with the CC. My fear was some unknown bad news would come out and none did. Everything I heard was the same or more positive than what we already knew. If I was short I would be very tempted to take some profits tomorrow
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Post by Deleted on Nov 9, 2015 19:04:27 GMT -5
Absolutely! And although dilutive to earnings this was probably the most shareholder friendly way to do it. Mannkind will be selling shares directly to the funds and essentially the funds will just hold them, not put them on the open market. Also they are not allowed to lend them short sellers. They will buy them in the next week or so if I heard correctly so I'm hoping we get a little move up in the next couple of days so Mannkind will get more money out of the deal. Three trading days to set the price for trading on the TASE. Three more days for Shorts to drive the PPS down. Any guesses on Thursday's closing price? I wonder if they will (can) push it down to 2 or so. If $2 on Thursday, then 50M shares @ $2 equals $100M. Of that MNKD gets $97M after 3% transaction fee. Not even a full year's worth of cash outflow per what Matt said today. He said 10 to 12 million a month, MAYBE 8 to 10 after recent cutbacks take affect. I think we will see the PPS decline each of the next three days. I hope and pray I am wrong. I recommend seeing a doctor for your hearing; Matt repeated his cash burn estimates of approximately $10 million per QUARTER.
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Post by tayl5 on Nov 9, 2015 19:15:25 GMT -5
While there may be a long-term incentive to drive down the stock price to limit the amount of cash MannKind receives from the TASE funds, anyone mounting a bear raid is paying significant interest and increasing their exposure to unexpected upward price moves. It may be that we've developed such a persecution complex that anything looks like an excuse for a bear attack. I expect the stock price to be significantly higher on the 12th than it is today.
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Post by parrerob on Nov 9, 2015 19:15:27 GMT -5
Three trading days to set the price for trading on the TASE. Three more days for Shorts to drive the PPS down. Any guesses on Thursday's closing price? I wonder if they will (can) push it down to 2 or so. If $2 on Thursday, then 50M shares @ $2 equals $100M. Of that MNKD gets $97M after 3% transaction fee. Not even a full year's worth of cash outflow per what Matt said today. He said 10 to 12 million a month, MAYBE 8 to 10 after recent cutbacks take affect. I think we will see the PPS decline each of the next three days. I hope and pray I am wrong. I recommend seeing a doctor for your hearing; Matt repeated his cash burn estimates of approximately $10 million per QUARTER. 10 million per quarter and so We need to collect money for 10 quarters ? strange
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Post by Deleted on Nov 9, 2015 19:18:07 GMT -5
The current burn rate is $10 million, it will decrease over time.
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Post by compound26 on Nov 9, 2015 19:18:30 GMT -5
Absolutely! And although dilutive to earnings this was probably the most shareholder friendly way to do it. Mannkind will be selling shares directly to the funds and essentially the funds will just hold them, not put them on the open market. Also they are not allowed to lend them short sellers. They will buy them in the next week or so if I heard correctly so I'm hoping we get a little move up in the next couple of days so Mannkind will get more money out of the deal. Three trading days to set the price for trading on the TASE. Three more days for Shorts to drive the PPS down. Any guesses on Thursday's closing price? I wonder if they will (can) push it down to 2 or so. If $2 on Thursday, then 50M shares @ $2 equals $100M. Of that MNKD gets $97M after 3% transaction fee. Not even a full year's worth of cash outflow per what Matt said today. He said 10 to 12 million a month, MAYBE 8 to 10 after recent cutbacks take affect. I think we will see the PPS decline each of the next three days. I hope and pray I am wrong. I think it's really two trading days here in the US. The offering price will be determined by the TASE closing price of 12 November. By the time we started trading here in the US on 12 November 2015, the TASE's trading day for 12 November will have closed. As for cash burn, the last quarter was around $18 million (6.3 R&D + 11.5 G&A = 17.8 million in total) per quarter (with manufacturing cost roughly balanced out by payment for product shipment and therefore not counted). Assuming manufacturing cost will continue to be roughly balanced out by payment for product shipment going forward, I do not see the cash burn rate going up in the coming quarters. As Matt has mentioned there was actually some restructuring charges for the last quarter. Below was my rough calculation of the numbers based on the last quarter's numbers. 107 cash balance on 30 June 2015 - 64.3 debt repayment - 6.3 R&D
- 11.5 G&A
- 8.1 manufacturing cost
+ 0.7 proceeds from warrant and option exercise + 7.2 payment for product shipment
+ 12.2 proceeds from ATM = 36.9 By my calculation, based on the numbers released in the press release, Mannkind should have around 36.9 million, not 32.9 million cash. That's a difference of about $4 million. Maybe that's for interest payment and other expenses. Or perhaps I missed something in my calculation. If so, guys please let me know.
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Post by kball on Nov 9, 2015 19:21:00 GMT -5
Three trading days to set the price for trading on the TASE. Three more days for Shorts to drive the PPS down. Any guesses on Thursday's closing price? I wonder if they will (can) push it down to 2 or so. If $2 on Thursday, then 50M shares @ $2 equals $100M. Of that MNKD gets $97M after 3% transaction fee. Not even a full year's worth of cash outflow per what Matt said today. He said 10 to 12 million a month, MAYBE 8 to 10 after recent cutbacks take affect.I think we will see the PPS decline each of the next three days. I hope and pray I am wrong. I recommend seeing a doctor for your hearing; Matt repeated his cash burn estimates of approximately $10 million per QUARTER. I heard it the way Alethea heard it. Think they just went through 32 mill give or take this past quarter
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Post by alethea on Nov 9, 2015 19:23:24 GMT -5
The current burn rate is $10 million, it will decrease over time. I hope you are correct and that is 10M per quarter. I was taking notes and wrote down per month. Another poster has also stated 8 to 10 million per month. I'll be anxious to check the transcript. Again, I hope you are correct and I am wrong.
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Post by patryn on Nov 9, 2015 19:28:14 GMT -5
The current burn rate is $10 million, it will decrease over time. I hope you are correct and that is 10M per quarter. I was taking notes and wrote down per month. Another poster has also stated 8 to 10 million per month. I'll be anxious to check the transcript. Again, I hope you are correct and I am wrong. Given that the last quarter was 31 million in cash burn, I suspect it's 10M per month as well. They can't cut expenses that quickly in a quarter without catastrophic results. Nonetheless this should comfortably get them through 2016 into 2017 and at that point we will definitively know whether Afrezza is headed towards blockbuster status or remains a niche product. The insurance picture if it doesn't clear up by the end of 2016, will not change after that and that is the one thing most likely blocking adoption (as I mentioned in my other post).
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