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Post by alethea on Nov 9, 2015 19:38:03 GMT -5
Three trading days to set the price for trading on the TASE. Three more days for Shorts to drive the PPS down. Any guesses on Thursday's closing price? I wonder if they will (can) push it down to 2 or so. If $2 on Thursday, then 50M shares @ $2 equals $100M. Of that MNKD gets $97M after 3% transaction fee. Not even a full year's worth of cash outflow per what Matt said today. He said 10 to 12 million a month, MAYBE 8 to 10 after recent cutbacks take affect. I think we will see the PPS decline each of the next three days. I hope and pray I am wrong. I think it's really two trading days here in the US. The offering price will be determined by the TASE closing price of 12 November. By the time we started trading here in the US on 12 November 2015, the TASE's trading day for 12 November will have closed.
As for cash burn, the last quarter was around $18 million (6.3 R&D + 11.5 G&A = 17.8 million in total) per quarter (with manufacturing cost roughly balanced out by payment for product shipment and therefore not counted). Assuming manufacturing cost will continue to be roughly balanced out by payment for product shipment going forward, I do not see the cash burn rate going up in the coming quarters. As Matt has mentioned there was actually some restructuring charges for the last quarter. Hadn't thought of that. Only two trading days here in the U.S. instead of three and thank goodness for that. Good catch. Since they cannot drop the PPS more than 10% tomorrow and still be able to sell short the following day, maybe tomorrow's decline will be limited to just under 10%. And then another almost 10% the next day which will set the price in Israel on the TASE. Will we see a close in the U.S. somewhere around $2.15 or $2.20 on Wednesday?
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Post by ricguy on Nov 9, 2015 19:38:51 GMT -5
The current burn rate is $10 million, it will decrease over time. I hope you are correct and that is 10M per quarter. I was taking notes and wrote down per month. Another poster has also stated 8 to 10 million per month. I'll be anxious to check the transcript. Again, I hope you are correct and I am wrong. Alethea-you don't have to see a Dr. your hearing is fine, I heard the same thing. I just wasn't drinking my kool-aid at the time.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 9, 2015 22:04:21 GMT -5
I stand corrected, it is per month.
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Post by bill on Nov 9, 2015 23:01:29 GMT -5
I tried reading more carefully through MNKD's prospectus for the 50,000,000 share purchase. I think their placement agent, Sunrise Securities Corp is empowered to act as an active market maker in the MNKD security from now until the deal is concluded. They're being financially compensated based on the revenue generated so they have every incentive to keep the shorts in check through Thursday's TASE price setting. Maybe things aren't as grim as I/we suspected.
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Post by bill on Nov 9, 2015 23:05:39 GMT -5
I think it's really two trading days here in the US. The offering price will be determined by the TASE closing price of 12 November. By the time we started trading here in the US on 12 November 2015, the TASE's trading day for 12 November will have closed.
As for cash burn, the last quarter was around $18 million (6.3 R&D + 11.5 G&A = 17.8 million in total) per quarter (with manufacturing cost roughly balanced out by payment for product shipment and therefore not counted). Assuming manufacturing cost will continue to be roughly balanced out by payment for product shipment going forward, I do not see the cash burn rate going up in the coming quarters. As Matt has mentioned there was actually some restructuring charges for the last quarter. Hadn't thought of that. Only two trading days here in the U.S. instead of three and thank goodness for that. Good catch. Since they cannot drop the PPS more than 10% tomorrow and still be able to sell short the following day, maybe tomorrow's decline will be limited to just under 10%. And then another almost 10% the next day which will set the price in Israel on the TASE. Will we see a close in the U.S. somewhere around $2.15 or $2.20 on Wednesday? And, maybe those dynamics are why MNKD released their earnings pre-market and the conference call post-market. It got the shorts to precipitously drop the share price today by more than 10% which means the uptick rule is in effect tomorrow. That will make it easier for their placement agent Sunrise Securities Corp to play effective market maker and control the share price for the next few days--based on what I'm reading in the prospectus for the deal. Sunrise Securities makes more money if MNKD is able to raise more revenue--if I'm interpreting everything correctly.
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Post by garrett on Nov 10, 2015 7:12:31 GMT -5
That's looks correct - here is that part of the transcript:
Keith Markey - Griffin Securities
Yes. Okay, thanks. And one last question, I was just wondering what is your estimated cash burn rate through 2016? Matthew Pfeffer - CFO
Keith, I know you're asking that question a bunch of times, and I think I have always answered 10 million to 12 million a month. Keith Markey - Griffin Securities
Okay. Matthew Pfeffer - CFO
It's not apart from that this time, because I think it will go down, it's really more like 8 million to 10 million a month going forward, but a lot of it depends on timing of raw material purchases, and where our production levels are, quite frankly, because you saw with us the manufacturing production costs, but…
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Post by boytroy88 on Nov 10, 2015 7:36:47 GMT -5
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