MNKD valuation if FDA Approved

[mnkdfan]

Hi all,

I am hoping you could share your opinion on what you think the stock price could reach if MNKD was given FDA approval.  There's more on table this go around with the market opened to type II patients out of the gate.  I have looked at the $7B+ deal Bristol/Astra paid for Amylin in 2012 to try and get my own projection.  A lot of figures are tossed around out there but I value you the folks here opinion very much.  

The partnership deal aside, it is my opinion that given FDA approval, the stock price should easily break $10.00.  My guess is we would be somewhere between 7-8 going into the FDA 4/15 date and an approval would put us somewhere between $10-12.00 range ($13.00-15.00 wild card with shorts perhaps having to cover quickly).  As much as I would like a partnership announcement, I am not concerned about having a partner because ultimately I feel we wll have one with an approval in hand.  The pop from the partnership could come now or later so I can wait.  The key for me is FDA approval and I very much like our chances this go around.  

ACAD is already at $2.1B valuation without an approved drug and does not have the sales potential like MNKD has.

Ofcourse I'd be happy for anything higher but would like to see how other experienced MNKD investors feel about the minimum MNKD pricing could hit given FDA approval.

Thanks in advance,
MNKDFAN

[mannmade]

Agree with above pending scope of label

[babaoriley]

fan,

The 4/15 date is an estimate, has been all along, and now is more in doubt than before, although I do not believe it will be delayed significantly by the AdCom. On the other hand, the 4/1 AdCom date is written in stone, or at least carved in hardwood. I believe predictions at this point of where we the stock price is right around PDUFA are not so relevant anymore.

On or about March 27, which is right before the AdCom notes (or whatever they are called) come out, here are my guesses:

With a partnership having been previously announced - $10
Without a partnership having been announced - $7.50

Obviously, you and I differ substantially on the effect of a partnership, but our numbers aren't wildly different.

Assuming a very good AdCom outcome (say that five times fast!), add $3 to the $10 and $2 to the $7.50.

Don't want to think about a nasty AdCom session.

After a favorable AdCom, then it's time to start more meaningfully speculating about price just prior to PDUFA, and what happens upon approval.

We all know what happens on disapproval.

[jpg]

I will not make any predictions other then to say that after approval we will all do very well at some point in time.
Will it be a minute, a week, a month or 3 years after approval that we will do very very well I certainly don't know. I have seen to many strange outcomes in biotech to be surprised by much. I have learnt (hopefully wisely) to buy the good companies, to be patient and to avoid trying to perfectly time any of this. Can't be done or at least not with consistency. To me the timing of a run up isn't that important. I would rather it be sooner then later but time is on our side.this will be a mega blockbuster and I own a share of it. Time is on our side. Not if you play options though...

JPG