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Post by cfield23 on Nov 8, 2015 23:12:55 GMT -5
Are you talking about the TASE ETFs that track specific indexes?? If so, then not necessarily. Sure that's one option. It's not guaranteed though. MNKD could issue shares to the TASE ETFs Let's just say that MNKD had no plans to issue share to the ETFs, this is one way to fight the shorts, think about it. MNKD when settling the debt MNKD refused to lower the price below $4.60, why would they issue shares to the ETF at less than $3.00! People on this board has been asking for MNKD to fight the shorts, guess what, they just shot the first shot across the SS Short boat. Do you think that there is any question why GS issues out a report before the earnings call? Yes the purchasing of shares on the open market by TASE ETFs would be most beneficial for our pps. Yes, I agree with you on GS. However, I think MNKD expected to convert more debt to equity than they did (assuming we did pay the remaining due in cash). If we did pay in cash, then we're absolutely in need of cash. Unless we've received a milestone payment, we need capital. No, it's not dire and we're not going bankrupt, but we need some more cash. This is one way of getting that cash. I'm not saying its guaranteed -- just a thought. Plus, MannKind reserves the right to issue shares via the ATM & Shelf Reg. Agreement whenever. Since it's yet to be announced how the TASE ETFs will get shares, I don't think it's fair to assume that it will definitely be on the open market. Maybe so, but not guaranteed -- just a thought like mine
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Post by jpg on Nov 8, 2015 23:56:56 GMT -5
I'm afraid your logic escapes me. MNKD had limited choices -- pay the debt with cash or pay the debt with stock or a combination. Did they have sufficient cash? Won't know until tomorrow. If MNKD paid with stock, then whoever accepts the stock will likely want it issued at a significant discount to the current price. That wouldn't matter if it were in Israel or here. That would entail issuing roughly 12-15 million shares of stock. Regardless, tomorrow is the day we finally find out what actually happened. I think you are paid to not get his logic? Of course they had sufficient cash to pay the debt (as they obviously did...). It's rather simple as far as concepts go no? Index funds, passive non shortable shares. And no discount: the index thing! Simple no? It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on his not understanding it. Upton Sinclair
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Post by rockstarrick on Nov 9, 2015 0:07:30 GMT -5
Are you talking about the TASE ETFs that track specific indexes?? If so, then not necessarily. Sure that's one option. It's not guaranteed though. MNKD could issue shares to the TASE ETFs Let's just say that MNKD had no plans to issue share to the ETFs, this is one way to fight the shorts, think about it. MNKD when settling the debt MNKD refused to lower the price below $4.60, why would they issue shares to the ETF at less than $3.00! People on this board has been asking for MNKD to fight the shorts, guess what, they just shot the first shot across the SS Short boat. Do you think that there is any question why GS issues out a report before the earnings call? Isn't this fun !!!!!!
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Post by jpg on Nov 9, 2015 0:37:07 GMT -5
Let's just say that MNKD had no plans to issue share to the ETFs, this is one way to fight the shorts, think about it. MNKD when settling the debt MNKD refused to lower the price below $4.60, why would they issue shares to the ETF at less than $3.00! People on this board has been asking for MNKD to fight the shorts, guess what, they just shot the first shot across the SS Short boat. Do you think that there is any question why GS issues out a report before the earnings call? Isn't this fun !!!!!! But then they would have little money to keep the lights on.
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Post by rockstarrick on Nov 9, 2015 0:39:54 GMT -5
But then they would have little money to keep the lights on. I still like the "shot across the short boat" comment.
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Post by mbseeking on Nov 9, 2015 2:15:08 GMT -5
My view is MNKD should be issuing whatever shares they need to get their capital. That is the reason companies list on the stock market.. and when I invest in a company in this phase of development i expect they will need to come back for more.
Its not clear to my why MNKD keeps saying they absolutely wont dilute.. is this because of past dilution , or statements about dilution?
Why should I begrudge MNKD to dilute?.. when the shorts have already diluted the stock so much? Surely it is better that the company doing something for humanity should do the dilution and get the cash to continue?
MNKD probably does not have enough cash right now to survive the 'growth' plans SNY seems to have come up for Afrezza. By all means MNKD should issue now whatever stock they need to keep the business afloat. Rather they did that now and cleared any doubt about their survivability. Believe it would turn out to be a huge positive for the stock.
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Post by bill on Nov 9, 2015 7:49:34 GMT -5
Let's just say that MNKD had no plans to issue share to the ETFs, this is one way to fight the shorts, think about it. MNKD when settling the debt MNKD refused to lower the price below $4.60, why would they issue shares to the ETF at less than $3.00! People on this board has been asking for MNKD to fight the shorts, guess what, they just shot the first shot across the SS Short boat. Do you think that there is any question why GS issues out a report before the earnings call? Yes the purchasing of shares on the open market by TASE ETFs would be most beneficial for our pps. Yes, I agree with you on GS. However, I think MNKD expected to convert more debt to equity than they did (assuming we did pay the remaining due in cash). If we did pay in cash, then we're absolutely in need of cash. Unless we've received a milestone payment, we need capital. No, it's not dire and we're not going bankrupt, but we need some more cash. This is one way of getting that cash. I'm not saying its guaranteed -- just a thought. Plus, MannKind reserves the right to issue shares via the ATM & Shelf Reg. Agreement whenever. Since it's yet to be announced how the TASE ETFs will get shares, I don't think it's fair to assume that it will definitely be on the open market. Maybe so, but not guaranteed -- just a thought like mine Could MNKD be planning to provide the last 10 million or so shares to the index funds with a floor price of say $4.65? That way the first 20 million open market share purchase would resuscitate the share price but the indices would know they'd never have to pay more than $4.65 for the last 10 million.
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Post by factspls88 on Nov 9, 2015 9:16:52 GMT -5
Great discussion and very plausible scenarios laid out. Nice job cfield. As was mentioned, it may explain the Goldman reaffirmation of the $1 price target. I found it to be incredibly odd given that it was reaffirmed on a Sunday morning. None of us knows for sure how the debt was/is to be resolved - but you can rest assured that Goldman likely knows. I have always been of the mind that one should do the opposite of what Goldman says. Good luck all.
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Post by cfield23 on Nov 9, 2015 9:23:26 GMT -5
My view is MNKD should be issuing whatever shares they need to get their capital. That is the reason companies list on the stock market.. and when I invest in a company in this phase of development i expect they will need to come back for more. Its not clear to my why MNKD keeps saying they absolutely wont dilute.. is this because of past dilution , or statements about dilution? Why should I begrudge MNKD to dilute?.. when the shorts have already diluted the stock so much? Surely it is better that the company doing something for humanity should do the dilution and get the cash to continue? MNKD probably does not have enough cash right now to survive the 'growth' plans SNY seems to have come up for Afrezza. By all means MNKD should issue now whatever stock they need to keep the business afloat. Rather they did that now and cleared any doubt about their survivability. Believe it would turn out to be a huge positive for the stock. I agree. We're an early stage corp. I'm fine with dilution because if we do indeed become the company we think we will be, we'll buy back shares anyway. However, matt DIDN'T say that he wouldn't dilute. He didn't. He just said that he will not use a secondary public offering to settle the debt. Go back and listen. He never said "no dilution"... I think he'll issue new shares to the ETFs, which although dilution -- not a secondary offering.
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Post by cfield23 on Nov 9, 2015 9:25:12 GMT -5
Yes the purchasing of shares on the open market by TASE ETFs would be most beneficial for our pps. Yes, I agree with you on GS. However, I think MNKD expected to convert more debt to equity than they did (assuming we did pay the remaining due in cash). If we did pay in cash, then we're absolutely in need of cash. Unless we've received a milestone payment, we need capital. No, it's not dire and we're not going bankrupt, but we need some more cash. This is one way of getting that cash. I'm not saying its guaranteed -- just a thought. Plus, MannKind reserves the right to issue shares via the ATM & Shelf Reg. Agreement whenever. Since it's yet to be announced how the TASE ETFs will get shares, I don't think it's fair to assume that it will definitely be on the open market. Maybe so, but not guaranteed -- just a thought like mine Could MNKD be planning to provide the last 10 million or so shares to the index funds with a floor price of say $4.65? That way the first 20 million open market share purchase would resuscitate the share price but the indices would know they'd never have to pay more than $4.65 for the last 10 million. I HIGHLY doubt that. The ETFs are owned by the public, too so they're not going to just take a hit of almost $2.00/share. They'll likely get shares issued around the current price. If you were the ETF, what would be your motivation for taking $4.65/share?
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Post by cfield23 on Nov 9, 2015 9:26:24 GMT -5
Great discussion and very plausible scenarios laid out. Nice job cfield. As was mentioned, it may explain the Goldman reaffirmation of the $1 price target. I found it to be incredibly odd given that it was reaffirmed on a Sunday morning. None of us knows for sure how the debt was/is to be resolved - but you can rest assured that Goldman likely knows. I have always been of the mind that one should do the opposite of what Goldman says. Good luck all. Thanks! and yeah I agree. Their track record isn't the greatest. I usually ignore analysts and it's overall gone pretty well for me thus far.
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Post by bill on Nov 9, 2015 9:32:22 GMT -5
Could MNKD be planning to provide the last 10 million or so shares to the index funds with a floor price of say $4.65? That way the first 20 million open market share purchase would resuscitate the share price but the indices would know they'd never have to pay more than $4.65 for the last 10 million. I HIGHLY doubt that. The ETFs are owned by the public, too so they're not going to just take a hit of almost $2.00/share. They'll likely get shares issued around the current price. If you were the ETF, what would be your motivation for taking $4.65/share? Isn't the acquisition of 30 million shares going to drive the price up while they're being acquired? If one could purchase that many shares at the current price why would the brokers say there are no shares to borrow or only at very high interest rates?
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Post by kc on Nov 9, 2015 9:33:01 GMT -5
Yes the TASE needs to find those shares, open market purchases, etc. just not from MNKD. Are you talking about the TASE ETFs that track specific indexes?? If so, then not necessarily. Sure that's one option. It's not guaranteed though. MNKD could issue shares to the TASE ETFs I sure hope we find out they did this. That would be a big big moment for MannKind
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Post by kc on Nov 9, 2015 9:36:50 GMT -5
My view is MNKD should be issuing whatever shares they need to get their capital. That is the reason companies list on the stock market.. and when I invest in a company in this phase of development i expect they will need to come back for more. Its not clear to my why MNKD keeps saying they absolutely wont dilute.. is this because of past dilution , or statements about dilution? Why should I begrudge MNKD to dilute?.. when the shorts have already diluted the stock so much? Surely it is better that the company doing something for humanity should do the dilution and get the cash to continue? MNKD probably does not have enough cash right now to survive the 'growth' plans SNY seems to have come up for Afrezza. By all means MNKD should issue now whatever stock they need to keep the business afloat. Rather they did that now and cleared any doubt about their survivability. Believe it would turn out to be a huge positive for the stock. Sanofi would buy into the company before the company would have to sell more shares. The company has treasury stocks to sell from the shares they just paid cash for from redeeming the debt. Selling shares to TASE or Sanofi has the same effect. Sanofi should buy into the company before more dilution occurs. They want a strong partner in MannKind.
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Post by cfield23 on Nov 9, 2015 10:18:22 GMT -5
I HIGHLY doubt that. The ETFs are owned by the public, too so they're not going to just take a hit of almost $2.00/share. They'll likely get shares issued around the current price. If you were the ETF, what would be your motivation for taking $4.65/share? Isn't the acquisition of 30 million shares going to drive the price up while they're being acquired? If one could purchase that many shares at the current price why would the brokers say there are no shares to borrow or only at very high interest rates? Acquiring shares = buying. No shares to borrow is referring to no shares available to short. It's different.
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