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Post by cfield23 on Nov 8, 2015 21:30:49 GMT -5
Hey guys -- thought just occurred to me that seems pretty plausible and would actually clear up a lot of why we haven't heard the debt resolution details. By my recollection, MannKind was still needed to settle $48.9M in debt to retire the Bank of America $100M loan. $100M due - 15.4M (Paid on 8/15 in Cash) - 27.7M (Rolled into convertible notes due 8/2018) - 8M (Converted into Equity) ------------ $48.9M remaining So, we know the debt is retired. It's done. It's over. Bank of America is has returned their 9M shares held short as a hedge on the initial loan. But how did we pay down the remaining $48.9M? A few days ago, we heard that the Israeli ETFs are going to purchase 500-600 Million Shekels worth of MNKD on 11/15/15 (Source: maya.tase.co.il/bursa/report.asp?report_cd=998987) -- Note: the 500-600M figure came from a separate article found here: www.themarker.com/markets/1.27661331 Shekel = $0.25 USD 500-600M Shekels = $125-150M USD At a $3.00 share price, that'd equate to $41-50M So, call me crazy, but what if the TASE ETFs are responsible for paying off the remaining debt, either directly or indirectly?!?! We could've paid (in cash) B of A to settle the debt, with the plan to issue shares (equity) to the TASE ETFs. This new equity would produce the cash to replace all (or most) of the cash spent on the B of A settlement. On the Aegis conference call, although rushed, Matt Pfeffer may have dropped the gem. He said that MNKD resolved the remaining debt with a mix of cash and other means. Now, if this is true, get ready for AF hit-pieces saying that we're in a "death spiral" ... However, my question to you is this: Who cares who gets the converted equity from resolving the debt? Does it matter if it's Bank of America or Israeli ETFs? No. The only "semi-valid" point that could be made is that Bank of America getting the equity would be at that VWAP price around $4 something. TASE ETF's would be getting the average price at around $3. Sure, that means more shares, but only around 4-5M more. That'd represent 0.96% of the overall shares outstanding. Also, if we do get the AF hit pieces, feel free to use this: Attachment Deleted |
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Post by rrtzmd on Nov 8, 2015 21:42:39 GMT -5
I'm afraid your logic escapes me. MNKD had limited choices -- pay the debt with cash or pay the debt with stock or a combination. Did they have sufficient cash? Won't know until tomorrow. If MNKD paid with stock, then whoever accepts the stock will likely want it issued at a significant discount to the current price. That wouldn't matter if it were in Israel or here. That would entail issuing roughly 12-15 million shares of stock. Regardless, tomorrow is the day we finally find out what actually happened.
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Post by cfield23 on Nov 8, 2015 21:58:47 GMT -5
I'm afraid your logic escapes me. MNKD had limited choices -- pay the debt with cash or pay the debt with stock or a combination. Did they have sufficient cash? Won't know until tomorrow. If MNKD paid with stock, then whoever accepts the stock will likely want it issued at a significant discount to the current price. That wouldn't matter if it were in Israel or here. That would entail issuing roughly 12-15 million shares of stock. Regardless, tomorrow is the day we finally find out what actually happened. Let me clear up a few things for you. Sorry if I confused you. 1) Yes I know they had to pay via cash or stock. Originally, it was to be converted at $6.80/share, but later was re-negotiated down to the VWAP of 10 days in Aug/Sept. That price was around $4.30 or $4.60. Some did convert at that price. The remaining was pushed out till the end of September. 2) MannKind certainly had enough cash. If you go back to look at their financials, they had $107 in cash total, which is more than the entirety of the debt. They didn't pay the full $100M in debt via cash. We know that. The question isn't whether they had enough, but rather whether they did. If they did, the issue is that they would've used a significant chunk of their remaining cash -- making it harder to run operations. 3) Yes you're correct that that'd be issuing 12-15 shares of stock. My 4-5M more was referring to the difference of converting at the VWAP and converting at $3.00. Converting $48.9M at the VWAP would be issuing 11ish million shares, while converting at $3.00/share would be issuing 16ish million shares. That is where I got the 4-5M difference (from 11 to 16). 4) I'm suggesting that we may have paid off the debt by issuing stock, except that the receiver of the stock wasn't BoA, but rather the Israeli ETFs. Hope that helps. I may be completely wrong -- but it's an interesting possibility and would explain why Matt was tight lipped at the Aegis Conf. Listing on the TASE wasn't known yet. |
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Post by obamayoumama on Nov 8, 2015 22:06:45 GMT -5
I'm afraid your logic escapes me. MNKD had limited choices -- pay the debt with cash or pay the debt with stock or a combination. Did they have sufficient cash? Won't know until tomorrow. If MNKD paid with stock, then whoever accepts the stock will likely want it issued at a significant discount to the current price. That wouldn't matter if it were in Israel or here. That would entail issuing roughly 12-15 million shares of stock. Regardless, tomorrow is the day we finally find out what actually happened. Let me clear up a few things for you. Sorry if I confused you. 1) Yes I know they had to pay via cash or stock. Originally, it was to be converted at $6.80/share, but later was re-negotiated down to the VWAP of 10 days in Aug/Sept. That price was around $4.30 or $4.60. Some did convert at that price. The remaining was pushed out till the end of September. 2) MannKind certainly had enough cash. If you go back to look at their financials, they had $107 in cash total, which is more than the entirety of the debt. They didn't pay the full $100M in debt via cash. We know that. The question isn't whether they had enough, but rather whether they did. If they did, the issue is that they would've used a significant chunk of their remaining cash -- making it harder to run operations. 3) Yes you're correct that that'd be issuing 12-15 shares of stock. My 4-5M more was referring to the difference of converting at the VWAP and converting at $3.00. Converting $48.9M at the VWAP would be issuing 11ish million shares, while converting at $3.00/share would be issuing 16ish million shares. That is where I got the 4-5M difference (from 11 to 16). 4) I'm suggesting that we may have paid off the debt by issuing stock, except that the receiver of the stock wasn't BoA, but rather the Israeli ETFs. Hope that helps. I may be completely wrong -- but it's an interesting possibility and would explain why Matt was tight lipped at the Aegis Conf. Listing on the TASE wasn't known yet. Let me help you out. MNKD as of last week was issuing out zero shares to the TASE. These shares are coming from the outstanding float. Those share can not be lent out, therefore the shorts are going to have many fewer shares to barrow from. It will be interesting to see where the TASE is going to get these shares. Any guesses? |
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Post by gwb on Nov 8, 2015 22:10:21 GMT -5
Let me clear up a few things for you. Sorry if I confused you. 1) Yes I know they had to pay via cash or stock. Originally, it was to be converted at $6.80/share, but later was re-negotiated down to the VWAP of 10 days in Aug/Sept. That price was around $4.30 or $4.60. Some did convert at that price. The remaining was pushed out till the end of September. 2) MannKind certainly had enough cash. If you go back to look at their financials, they had $107 in cash total, which is more than the entirety of the debt. They didn't pay the full $100M in debt via cash. We know that. The question isn't whether they had enough, but rather whether they did. If they did, the issue is that they would've used a significant chunk of their remaining cash -- making it harder to run operations. 3) Yes you're correct that that'd be issuing 12-15 shares of stock. My 4-5M more was referring to the difference of converting at the VWAP and converting at $3.00. Converting $48.9M at the VWAP would be issuing 11ish million shares, while converting at $3.00/share would be issuing 16ish million shares. That is where I got the 4-5M difference (from 11 to 16). 4) I'm suggesting that we may have paid off the debt by issuing stock, except that the receiver of the stock wasn't BoA, but rather the Israeli ETFs. Hope that helps. I may be completely wrong -- but it's an interesting possibility and would explain why Matt was tight lipped at the Aegis Conf. Listing on the TASE wasn't known yet. Let me help you out. MNKD as of last week was issuing out zero shares to the TASE. These shares are coming from the outstanding float. Those share can not be lent out, therefore the shorts are going to have many fewer shares to barrow from. It will be interesting to see where the TASE is going to get these shares. Any guesses? Obama , I was posting to another thread on this topic . Do you think the index's are purchasing from the open market ? If so the shorts are done ! |
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Post by rockstarrick on Nov 8, 2015 22:10:33 GMT -5
How could anybody smart enough to draft what you just did be wrong ??
The numbers make sense, and in my opinion, so does the logic.
You have my vote.
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Post by cfield23 on Nov 8, 2015 22:24:38 GMT -5
Let me help you out. MNKD as of last week was issuing out zero shares to the TASE. These shares are coming from the outstanding float. Those share can not be lent out, therefore the shorts are going to have many fewer shares to barrow from. It will be interesting to see where the TASE is going to get these shares. Any guesses? Yes. I completely, 100%, unequivocally understand that the TASE listing didn't cause any issuance of shares. It is a cross listing and the shares traded traded on the TASE are the same shares that are available for trading on the Nasdaq. I wasn't suggesting that the cross listing was the issuance of shares. I'm saying that there was a PR and an article proclaiming that the TASE ETFs are going to rebalance and own a significant amount of shares. WE DO NOT KNOW HOW THEY WILL BE GETTING THEM. There are two possibilities. One is that MannKind won't do anything and the TASE ETFs will buy on the open market. In that situation, the pps would rise dramatically. The second possibility is that MannKind will issue shares to the ETFs. I'm suggesting that MannKind paid BoA debt w/ cash, knowing that they'd be able to replace the cash quickly with the issuance of shares to the ETFs. |
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Post by cfield23 on Nov 8, 2015 22:26:00 GMT -5
Let me help you out. MNKD as of last week was issuing out zero shares to the TASE. These shares are coming from the outstanding float. Those share can not be lent out, therefore the shorts are going to have many fewer shares to barrow from. It will be interesting to see where the TASE is going to get these shares. Any guesses? Obama , I was posting to another thread on this topic . Do you think the index's are purchasing from the open market ? If so the shorts are done ! This is possible. However, we won't know. We'll likely have a better idea after tomorrow, but we'll know for sure on 11/15 |
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Post by cfield23 on Nov 8, 2015 22:26:36 GMT -5
How could anybody smart enough to draft what you just did be wrong ?? The numbers make sense, and in my opinion, so does the logic. You have my vote. Thank you!  Seems plausible. |
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Post by obamayoumama on Nov 8, 2015 22:27:17 GMT -5
Let me help you out. MNKD as of last week was issuing out zero shares to the TASE. These shares are coming from the outstanding float. Those share can not be lent out, therefore the shorts are going to have many fewer shares to barrow from. It will be interesting to see where the TASE is going to get these shares. Any guesses? Obama , I was posting to another thread on this topic . Do you think the index's are purchasing from the open market ? If so the shorts are done ! Yes the TASE needs to find those shares, open market purchases, etc. just not from MNKD. |
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Post by cfield23 on Nov 8, 2015 22:29:29 GMT -5
Obama , I was posting to another thread on this topic . Do you think the index's are purchasing from the open market ? If so the shorts are done ! Yes the TASE needs to find those shares, open market purchases, etc. just not from MNKD. Are you talking about the TASE ETFs that track specific indexes?? If so, then not necessarily. Sure that's one option. It's not guaranteed though. MNKD could issue shares to the TASE ETFs |
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Post by chuck on Nov 8, 2015 22:34:16 GMT -5
index funds purchased shares in a company before said company is even in the index and a company issues a material number of shares without 8-k disclosure. Completely lost on this line of thinking.
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Post by cfield23 on Nov 8, 2015 22:34:26 GMT -5
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Post by cfield23 on Nov 8, 2015 22:38:01 GMT -5
index funds purchased shares in a company before said company is even in the index and a company issues a material number of shares without 8-k disclosure. Completely lost on this line of thinking. No no no. I'm saying that MNKD used cash to settle the debt with an agreement from TASE funds to include in several indexes. The inclusion in the indexes isn't until 11/15 anyway, so it hasn't happened. The TASE listing takes time. I have no doubt that this was on the table during the time they were trying to settle debt with Bank of America. |
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Post by obamayoumama on Nov 8, 2015 22:49:04 GMT -5
Yes the TASE needs to find those shares, open market purchases, etc. just not from MNKD. Are you talking about the TASE ETFs that track specific indexes?? If so, then not necessarily. Sure that's one option. It's not guaranteed though. MNKD could issue shares to the TASE ETFs Let's just say that MNKD had no plans to issue share to the ETFs, this is one way to fight the shorts, think about it. MNKD when settling the debt MNKD refused to lower the price below $4.60, why would they issue shares to the ETF at less than $3.00! People on this board has been asking for MNKD to fight the shorts, guess what, they just shot the first shot across the SS Short boat. Do you think that there is any question why GS issues out a report before the earnings call? |
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