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PPS
Jan 21, 2014 15:22:32 GMT -5
Post by biotec on Jan 21, 2014 15:22:32 GMT -5
Is it just me or is this stock moving the wrong way? With a major AdCom just a little over 2 months away and a FDA date on the tables I thought we would be seeing a run up not down.
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Post by babaoriley on Jan 21, 2014 16:10:52 GMT -5
Even though one may think it would run up consistently toward AdCom, it just doesn't happen that way. It would be far too easy if that happened, so it doesn't, essentially. I sold a few puts today, Feb's, 5 and 5.50's. So we'll see if that turns out making sense. Other than the grab bag of hit/pump pieces that hit intermittently, the main non-NR type thing that could hit us is a leak that a deal that was close, no longer is, for example.
Perhaps some are exchanging stock for options? Just vagaries, I think.
Also, I note lots of early selling pressure, but decent buying support late.
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Post by ezrasfund on Jan 21, 2014 17:52:30 GMT -5
A large number of calls expired in the money over the weekend (around 130,000 options for 13 million shares). Those share were bought (average call strike $4.50 (?) meaning around $60 million spent). I was one of those whose calls expired in the money, and like many others, I suspect, I sold most of those shares today to replenish my cash position. Hence the selling pressure today? For most ITM call owners the total transaction should have netted a healthy profit. I used some of that money to buy $4 Feb calls. They have a premium of less than a dime (2%) and let me control lots more shares. It doesn't work out every month, but when it does the upside is considerable, and I can keep a lot more cash on hand.
On another, gloomier note, I recall a counter-intuitive fact. The longer we wait the farther from our goal we probably are. A construction project one week past due is likely to be completed before a project that is one year past due on the same day. If your bus is 1 minute late it will probably be here soon, but if it is an hour late, you may be in for a long wait. I remember MannKind said something about partnership being just around the corner in October of 2009.
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Post by biotec on Jan 21, 2014 19:36:54 GMT -5
I've been in a couple bio's in my day, Theres always a run up into FDA,AdCom ETC (to a point). I understand the puts and calls, warrents Etc. Still at this time there should be alot more short longs IE buying for great info come end of march early April. I think the lack of partnership has alot to do with it of course.How many investors do you think read MF or SA? I say 20% tops. So a neg or pos article I would say is moot mostly seeing Al mann has 48% the shares.This stock should be heading up and up every day!April Is around the corner, we are not interviewing diabetics for filling stage 3 trials, We are not waiting for the trials to be filled, We are not waiting for phase 3 results, nor are we wiating for FDA submission.This is the win it all, or go home!April 1rst is just around the corner. JMO
Bio
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Post by babaoriley on Jan 21, 2014 23:00:47 GMT -5
biotec, we ran early and strong a year ago; it's not always the same. We may run late, toward the end of March. But the no partnership situation is definitely a drag on the price. Still, absent affirmative bad news, it would be surprising to say the least not to see a run up in late March, the question remaining, "run up from what level?" Will it be from the current level, or will we head south to sub $5 before heading north?
I really don't want to ever find out, let's get the partnership.
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PPS
Jan 22, 2014 17:07:01 GMT -5
Post by ezrasfund on Jan 22, 2014 17:07:01 GMT -5
It would seem that every day that goes by without a partnership makes it more likely that no agreement will be announced until after the FDA decision on April 15th. All parties would think it is in their best interest to leave options open until the PDUFA date, even after a favorable AdCom vote two weeks earlier. And if history is any guide (it's not), both of the previous PDUFA dates passed without any partnership announcements.
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Post by babaoriley on Jan 22, 2014 17:43:09 GMT -5
"And if history is any guide (it's not), both of the previous PDUFA dates passed without any partnership announcements."
But this time, Ezra, we had Grenhill, the master deal maker, on our team. Look, it's not impossible that Al, especially at 87, is tougher than ever to deal with. If that's the case (boy, I hope it's not), we might one day see Al, at age 90, peddling a bicycle from MD to MD selling inhaled insulin!!
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PPS
Jan 22, 2014 19:32:53 GMT -5
Post by ezrasfund on Jan 22, 2014 19:32:53 GMT -5
How about this fantasy? MannKind partners with TWO big Pharmas; Sanofi to market Afrezza with Lantus to Type 1's and Roche or Merck (?) to sell Afrezza to Type 2's. Greenhill may help hammer out the terms, but Mann and the other BOD's still have to do the signing. They might be hesitant to sign an agreement, even a contingent one, when the underlying assumptions will become certain in a matter of weeks (12 and counting).
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Post by babaoriley on Jan 22, 2014 20:40:39 GMT -5
"They might be hesitant to sign an agreement, even a contingent one, when the underlying assumptions will become certain in a matter of weeks (12 and counting)." Agree completely, Ezra, however, what I have been assuming is that this potential blockbuster would draw more than one pharma for each indication or both, and, based on the competition among pharmas, one pharma would bite the bullet and agree to sign now, albeit with a modest non-refundable downpayment, so as to get their deal inked, with, of course, all other obligations being contingent on approval.
If Afrezza has half as much potential as many here think it does, it seems incredible to me that there would not be multiple suitors. And if so, at least one will be willing to pony up a few non-contingent dollars, and if that's the case, then let's get this partnership(s) signed the heck up!
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Post by ezrasfund on Jan 22, 2014 21:05:34 GMT -5
I agree that there are probably multiple suitors looking to partner with MNKD. But Mann is not just selling to the highest bidder. He probably has his own preferences as to which company is the best match ( "Lantus is the best basal insulin."). Mann may be using the competition to help raise the bid, and he may have reason to go with the best partner, not just the highest bidder.
Baba, I am hoping you are right, but once burned, twice shy, and twice burned...?
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