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Post by Deleted on Nov 9, 2015 18:59:38 GMT -5
Jay is from GS. What favors has GS done for MNKD the past year except to downgrade, and then short the stock. Jay's questions were totally loaded. I listened to them. Too bad GS didn't ask me that question. I would've loved to call them out for their hypocrisy. Spot on! |
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Post by chuck on Nov 9, 2015 22:24:37 GMT -5
GS and AF are all focused on the Jan 1/16 date. Wrong on timing in my opinion. SNY has gone through their annual planning exercise. If they were to dump afrezza it would have already happened. Nothing is going to change from now until the end of the year. Realistically, I see them banging away at this for another six months around the April 30th deadline for the long term pulmonary safety study. I would assume that is really where SNY has to swallow hard and move ahead with an 8000 person study or abandon ship. In the meantime, the lack of any guidance on the insurance issue will weigh on the stock. $1b market cap is too much given all the problems they are having. SP needs to come down further to build a more solid base.
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Post by james on Nov 9, 2015 23:01:24 GMT -5
GS and AF are all focused on the Jan 1/16 date. Wrong on timing in my opinion. SNY has gone through their annual planning exercise. If they were to dump afrezza it would have already happened. Nothing is going to change from now until the end of the year. Realistically, I see them banging away at this for another six months around the April 30th deadline for the long term pulmonary safety study. I would assume that is really where SNY has to swallow hard and move ahead with an 8000 person study or abandon ship. In the meantime, the lack of any guidance on the insurance issue will weigh on the stock. $1b market cap is too much given all the problems they are having. SP needs to come down further to build a more solid base. I don't see SNY bailing come January either. That just doesn't make sense yet from two basic angles. First SNY has a reputation to consider when negotiating with additional partners and sandbagging or bailing out of deals at the first opportunity is not what anyone else wants to see. Secondly, the cost going forward does not seem especially high at what should be less than $150M per year. Given that milestone payments don't seem on the front burner at the moment, I expect that the conservative approach would be to wait and see how this plays out a little longer. Constructing a scenario with positive return is not so difficult given an increase in growth, though that argument is likely to wear thin over the next 6 months. P.S. There's also the somewhat mysterious inclusion of Afrezza in the Praluent study. Cutting MNKD loose could put that study in jeopardy. I left this out of the above because I'm not sure how much relevance to give it. Taken at face value, this item would put a minimum SNY commitment out to early 2017. |
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Post by rrtzmd on Nov 10, 2015 0:32:12 GMT -5
Continues to ask about Sanofi ending partnership. Jay: get it through your thick skull, Sanofi is not walking away. But which is worse -- Sanofi not walking away or Sanofi continuing to do next to nothing to promote afrezza? The guillotine or slowly starving to death? Unless there's a dramatic change in SNY's behavior, the new financing will likely only keep MNKD "hanging" for another year accumulating more losses and more debt, which could mean needing an even larger secondary next December. The SNY presentation clearly demonstrated that afrezza is not a priority with them, and MNKD clearly doesn't seem adept at challenging SNY's attitude or behavior. |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 10, 2015 18:48:25 GMT -5
I am on the fence with Sanofi: are they proceeding judiciously or putting minimal effort?
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Nov 10, 2015 19:15:47 GMT -5
I am on the fence with Sanofi: are they proceeding judiciously or putting minimal effort? I wrote a much more complete version of this thought but it disappeared when we had an ISP glitch. My GUESS is that they are smart enough to believe in Afrezza, but 1) as mentioned before, there are downsides to sending hordes of patients looking for a drug for which only 1 in 4 really has coverage, 2) perhaps with agreement of MNKD that must borrow to pay for shared expenses, they are minimizing burn and 3) they have made a business decision to not officially make Afrezza an expected blockbuster drug until their payer access team proves that they can overcome the coverage problem by blowing at least one hole in the payer access wall. I think SNY knew payer coverage would be an uphill battle, and it has turned out to be so. I don't think there is any reason for them to walk away from this, but I think movement on formularies is the key for SNY to start sounding and acting ($$$) like they believe Afrezza a blockbuster. I have faith they are doing what they can with regard to payers, but I dare not speculate when that effort will pay off. |
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Post by jpg on Nov 10, 2015 19:46:45 GMT -5
I am on the fence with Sanofi: are they proceeding judiciously or putting minimal effort? I wrote a much more complete version of this thought but it disappeared when we had an ISP glitch. My GUESS is that they are smart enough to believe in Afrezza, but 1) as mentioned before, there are downsides to sending hordes of patients looking for a drug for which only 1 in 4 really has coverage, 2) perhaps with agreement of MNKD that must borrow to pay for shared expenses, they are minimizing burn and 3) they have made a business decision to not officially make Afrezza an expected blockbuster drug until their payer access team proves that they can overcome the coverage problem by blowing at least one hole in the payer access wall. I think SNY knew payer coverage would be an uphill battle, and it has turned out to be so. I don't think there is any reason for them to walk away from this, but I think movement on formularies is the key for SNY to start sounding and acting ($$$) like they believe Afrezza a blockbuster. I have faith they are doing what they can with regard to payers, but I dare not speculate when that effort will pay off. Aren't you concerned about all the other 'last minute' diabetic deals they made? These deals are not exactly Afrezza friendly... |
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Post by patryn on Nov 10, 2015 19:49:38 GMT -5
I wrote a much more complete version of this thought but it disappeared when we had an ISP glitch. My GUESS is that they are smart enough to believe in Afrezza, but 1) as mentioned before, there are downsides to sending hordes of patients looking for a drug for which only 1 in 4 really has coverage, 2) perhaps with agreement of MNKD that must borrow to pay for shared expenses, they are minimizing burn and 3) they have made a business decision to not officially make Afrezza an expected blockbuster drug until their payer access team proves that they can overcome the coverage problem by blowing at least one hole in the payer access wall. I think SNY knew payer coverage would be an uphill battle, and it has turned out to be so. I don't think there is any reason for them to walk away from this, but I think movement on formularies is the key for SNY to start sounding and acting ($$$) like they believe Afrezza a blockbuster. I have faith they are doing what they can with regard to payers, but I dare not speculate when that effort will pay off. Aren't you concerned about all the other 'last minute' diabetic deals they made? These deals are not exactly Afrezza friendly... SNY is in full on panic mode. You don't lose your cash cow and then announce that for the next 3 years you expect declining revenue in a public market that is driven by the next quarter or possibly the next 3 quarters. They are going to try to throw lots of darts at the board to hope one of them sticks. For them not to put enough chips on Afrezza to make it stick would be foolish, but putting all their eggs in the Afrezza / Toujeo basket would be equally foolish. |
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Post by jpg on Nov 10, 2015 20:01:09 GMT -5
Aren't you concerned about all the other 'last minute' diabetic deals they made? These deals are not exactly Afrezza friendly... SNY is in full on panic mode. You don't lose your cash cow and then announce that for the next 3 years you expect declining revenue in a public market that is driven by the next quarter or possibly the next 3 quarters. They are going to try to throw lots of darts at the board to hope one of them sticks. For them not to put enough chips on Afrezza to make it stick would be foolish, but putting all their eggs in the Afrezza / Toujeo basket would be equally foolish. Agree Sanofi is in panic mode. They are throwing money at stuff ad hope something sticks is perfectly understandable and is often how things work in BP (but it often turns out to be a pointless strategy from a cost reward basis for shareholders of said panicked company). That is a very good point and I can certainly understand this logic. I just would like to see this some of the spending/ coverage/ advertising on Afrezza. |
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Post by tmann on Nov 10, 2015 20:26:18 GMT -5
Jay is a short syndicate associate.
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