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Post by longinvstr on Nov 10, 2015 12:14:58 GMT -5
Shorting is largely a drive-by game - take position, wait for (or make) news, & cover. Most don't favor waiting around 12-18 months to cover, especially if your cost to carry is 35-40%. They bet the farm there'd be "immediate" dilution. They were wrong. So, now Feuerstein & co. wait until Jan 1 on the hope that SNY bails. That is their only hope for near term exit.
What shorts did not want to hear over the last week:
1) SNY remains committed - one prime thesis shot down
2) No immediate dilution - exit door locked
3) If there is a divorce, MNKD has 10 yrs to repay SNY. This is a very significant factor to the short calculus. It means they stand only the chance to get a dilutive exit - no "jackpot" bankruptcy exit. In a risk/reward game, their potential reward is now greatly diminished. 10 years allows MNKD time to re-start, re-partner Afrezza = dilution, yes; bankruptcy, no
What shorts will be increasingly anxious about:
1) Seeing Afrezza advertised on TV
2) A PR detailing a BP/MNKD Technosphere partnership
3) A PR describing SNY minority stake in MNKD. SNY may come to realize that Afrezza offers them the best chance to cure their ailing diabetes division. Perhaps their initial instinct is to protect the children - not let the adopted one (Afrezza) threaten (via increased insulin sensitivity) the one marked to save the family = Toujeo. The long view, of course, it that it's going to happen, better we sell Afrezza than someone else.
4) There is a formal SEC investigation into the trading of MNKD shares. MNKD mgt. doesn't say much or say much very often. To me, this gives greater weight to Hakan's recent LA times SEC comment.
5) Significant formulary improvement
6) The Afrezza NRx scrip graph begins to resemble the bottom of a hockey stick
I believe there are institutional forces aligned to block MNKD's path to success. Those forces will remain well aligned and continue to pressure PPS until the TASE index transactions are completed. After that, the short battalion will slowly loose formation. Some will look down the road and factor that bad news is baked-in and the prospect for good news too great. Time to unwind and move on.
All they have left is the hope for divorce. Any SNY demonstration of LT commitment will send some to the door. We only need a few to pull their finger out of the dike
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Post by jurystillout on Nov 10, 2015 13:41:32 GMT -5
I can't fathom the reason why so many people on this board are so obsessed with the shorts. Shorts are not the cause of the problem they are the result of a problem. The real Failure to Deliver problem here is mnkd's inability to implement a strategy for making the company successful. From last nights report it became obvious that MNKD management is nothing but observers, watching and hoping SNY does something good for them, it's down right embarrassing. Hopefully, there is still time left and the mistakes made by this team are not so bad that their replacements can't fix them, time is running out they need to go ASAP!
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Post by Deleted on Nov 10, 2015 13:44:56 GMT -5
I just looked at your past posts. All FUD. Have a great day.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 10, 2015 13:48:24 GMT -5
Loginvstr: Excellent post. I like you timeline! Aloha.
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Post by mssciguy on Nov 10, 2015 13:49:46 GMT -5
I can't fathom the reason why so many people on this board are so obsessed with the shorts. Shorts are not the cause of the problem they are the result of a problem. The real Failure to Deliver problem here is mnkd's inability to implement a strategy for making the company successful. From last nights report it became obvious that MNKD management is nothing but observers, watching and hoping SNY does something good for them, it's down right embarrassing. Hopefully, there is still time left and the mistakes made by this team are not so bad that their replacements can't fix them, time is running out they need to go ASAP! I humbly disagree. The Naked Shorting stock price manipulation scheme has been illegal all along. The problem is a lame, corrupt SEC with an enforcement division whose key roles are ex-Goldman Sachs. MNKD is NOT a company anywhere close to BK, and in fact the company has valuable technology possibly worth several billion, possibly much more. Has mgmt done a good job with corporate spin, handling borderline criminal (or worse) Wall Street manipulation and attacks, communication to shareholders? no, NO, NOIs this is a company that is trying to stay low key, trying to not appear successful, always missing by just a little, or is it something else? Will the TS partner be revealed in this quarter? |
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Post by thekindaguyiyam on Nov 10, 2015 13:56:58 GMT -5
I can't fathom the reason why so many people on this board are so obsessed with the shorts. Shorts are not the cause of the problem they are the result of a problem. The real Failure to Deliver problem here is mnkd's inability to implement a strategy for making the company successful. From last nights report it became obvious that MNKD management is nothing but observers, watching and hoping SNY does something good for them, it's down right embarrassing. Hopefully, there is still time left and the mistakes made by this team are not so bad that their replacements can't fix them, time is running out they need to go ASAP! So apparently you can't read the articles that attack this company long before Afrezza was approved and started to market. I can't fathom how you expect to convince others of your theory... and My Intuitive guess is you are one of the group that is in fact short. But that has no merit because I don't know. What I do know is that other news providers have stated that this has been from the #1 shorted stock to the #6 shorted stock on the market. You have a hole in your information bucket pal. |
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Post by jurystillout on Nov 10, 2015 14:54:56 GMT -5
I can't fathom the reason why so many people on this board are so obsessed with the shorts. Shorts are not the cause of the problem they are the result of a problem. The real Failure to Deliver problem here is mnkd's inability to implement a strategy for making the company successful. From last nights report it became obvious that MNKD management is nothing but observers, watching and hoping SNY does something good for them, it's down right embarrassing. Hopefully, there is still time left and the mistakes made by this team are not so bad that their replacements can't fix them, time is running out they need to go ASAP! So apparently you can't read the articles that attack this company long before Afrezza was approved and started to market. I can't fathom how you expect to convince others of your theory... and My Intuitive guess is you are one of the group that is in fact short. But that has no merit because I don't know. What I do know is that other news providers have stated that this has been from the #1 shorted stock to the #6 shorted stock on the market. You have a hole in your information bucket pal. At this point I really wish I were short! |
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Post by patryn on Nov 10, 2015 14:57:13 GMT -5
So apparently you can't read the articles that attack this company long before Afrezza was approved and started to market. I can't fathom how you expect to convince others of your theory... and My Intuitive guess is you are one of the group that is in fact short. But that has no merit because I don't know. What I do know is that other news providers have stated that this has been from the #1 shorted stock to the #6 shorted stock on the market. You have a hole in your information bucket pal. At this point I really wish I were short! But you said yourself earlier you have no horse in this race. You bowed out so your money isn't at stake, you just really violently want to see MNKD succeed and are vociferously attacking the company, the management, and the marketing partner in order to do so? |
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Post by jurystillout on Nov 10, 2015 15:09:38 GMT -5
At this point I really wish I were short! But you said yourself earlier you have no horse in this race. You bowed out so your money isn't at stake, you just really violently want to see MNKD succeed and are vociferously attacking the company, the management, and the marketing partner in order to do so? At that time I didn't have a horse in the race, I do have a stake in it now, in a moment of of weakness I got back in at $3.30. Can any of you agree that if mnkd were successful (making sales and money) the shorts would not be an issue? Again, the shorts are not the problem they are the result of a problem! |
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Post by stevil on Nov 10, 2015 15:17:22 GMT -5
But you said yourself earlier you have no horse in this race. You bowed out so your money isn't at stake, you just really violently want to see MNKD succeed and are vociferously attacking the company, the management, and the marketing partner in order to do so? At that time I didn't have a horse in the race, I do have a stake in it now, in a moment of of weakness I got back in at $3.30. Can any of you agree that if mnkd were successful (making sales and money) the shorts would not be an issue? Again, the shorts are not the problem they are the result of a problem! jury, It truly is both. If the shorts didn't attack MNKD, we wouldn't have to dilute and extend to TASE. Maybe that was part of the plan before they "needed" to and maybe plans fell through with TEVA on a TS application. But MNKD probably should be trading higher than it is. And if it did, BK wouldn't be such a concern. Ultimately, you're right though. If we had more horses in the stable than our colt Afrezza, shorts wouldn't have safe haven. Hopefully if BK ever becomes a reality, a buyout would still leave the shorts with less than they hope for. Not sure how they're able to make money paying close to 50% interest though. It's nuts... |
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Post by mindovermatter on Nov 10, 2015 15:17:57 GMT -5
But you said yourself earlier you have no horse in this race. You bowed out so your money isn't at stake, you just really violently want to see MNKD succeed and are vociferously attacking the company, the management, and the marketing partner in order to do so? At that time I didn't have a horse in the race, I do have a stake in it now, in a moment of of weakness I got back in at $3.30. Can any of you agree that if mnkd were successful (making sales and money) the shorts would not be an issue? Again, the shorts are not the problem they are the result of a problem! Bingo! Give that man a price. If Mannkind and Sanofi were showing robust growth with Afrezza, the short position would be no where near where it is now. We all know the reason why there are over 120+ million shares shorted and is why MNKD is one of the heaviest shorted stocks around. And as I have stated, it doesn't help Mannkind when they don't have a verifiable pipeline and a management team that is either too tepid to fight or can't due to contractual agreements of confidentiality. I have held shares since the last CRL and I knew it would take time for Afrezza to get some traction but I what I didn't expect is to have a management team come off as being Lloyd and Harry from Dumb and Dumber during their conference calls. And now with the lawsuit against Sanofi that was poster here earlier, one has to wonder if SNY really isn't doing all they could to help move Afrezza along. |
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Post by patryn on Nov 10, 2015 15:19:12 GMT -5
But you said yourself earlier you have no horse in this race. You bowed out so your money isn't at stake, you just really violently want to see MNKD succeed and are vociferously attacking the company, the management, and the marketing partner in order to do so? At that time I didn't have a horse in the race, I do have a stake in it now, in a moment of of weakness I got back in at $3.30. Can any of you agree that if mnkd were successful (making sales and money) the shorts would not be an issue? Again, the shorts are not the problem they are the result of a problem! I think I have said many times that the number of negative posts here as well as the short interest would decrease mightily if MNKD were making sales and making money. However, that is not the case - you and I and everyone who has invested in the stock did so knowing that was not the case. We made our investments with the full knowledge that we were investing in future potential, not current financial conditions. I don't think the majority of investors are worried about the shorts; they want to see how MNKD is addressing the current sales and marketing partnership with SNY and how it is developing its future pipeline. |
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Post by silentknight on Nov 10, 2015 15:25:21 GMT -5
You don't destroy the shorts by complaining to the SEC. I'm skeptical that the SEC is interested at all in investigating anything. Has there been illegal naked shorting going on? Probably, but the way you truly get revenge is to sell your product, post revenues/profit, and convince the world that the doubters and shorts placed their bets on the wrong side of the coin. That hasn't happened. Shorts aren't responsible for quarterly reports and conference calls. All the short noise is, at least to me, casting blame at a symptom of the problem instead of the problem itself. Make Afrezza successful and shorts go away.
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Post by thekindaguyiyam on Nov 10, 2015 15:34:54 GMT -5
Self described med "student" Stevil.
You say you see the world as black and white. Get your eyes checked out and your philosophy for living as there are many shades of gray as well as variables of colors. Additionally, you said that you were gone... but unfortunately I see you have returned to boast about your knowledge and intelligence while referring to the investors here who treat Alfred Mann like a "god". What have you invested. How many successful corporations do you have. Are there articles you can refer us to that speaks to your superlative genius that speaks without consideration blundering in to this forum telling it's investors how stupid we are. Nevermind.
There is nothing you say; that I can get behind. When are you going to be a real doctor? Are you going to be a pediatrist? a proctologist? You've already claimed to be a psychiatrist. I personally think you are foolishly a wannabe in need of affirmation. I'd really like to tell you where you are imho on the evolutionary scale; but then you would attempt to tell us again how much you care about investors here and what a great messiah you think you are.
LOL Not interested. You are simply unbelievable. Good luck in your next examinations. It's a shame that Alfred Mann isn't as smart as you think you are.
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Post by robsacher on Nov 10, 2015 15:37:36 GMT -5
So apparently you can't read the articles that attack this company long before Afrezza was approved and started to market. I can't fathom how you expect to convince others of your theory... and My Intuitive guess is you are one of the group that is in fact short. But that has no merit because I don't know. What I do know is that other news providers have stated that this has been from the #1 shorted stock to the #6 shorted stock on the market. You have a hole in your information bucket pal. At this point I really wish I were short! It's not too late. If you are truly so disillusioned with the company, then why not short from this point forward? Heck, maybe you'll get your wish and make a couple of dollars on what's left of the company s/p. Go ahead, it's not too late… Make yourself proud. |
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