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Post by jonnykrush on Nov 10, 2015 12:34:17 GMT -5
shares 6 weeks ago, MNKD stands firm on the floor price of $4.40 or so, providing ammo for shorts and sending the sp into a death spiral; whereby they have to spend $64mil in cash to retire the bonds and now have to dilute to the tune of 50mil shares in a few days after the sp is driven down some more in order to stay afloat?
Am I missing something or does this seem like an extremely negligent fiscal decision? Granted, hindsight is 20/20 here but as the chief officers of a $1billion corp. I feel that some of this should have been reasonably foreseeable for Matt, Hakan and the rest.
By standing firm in their convictions I think most of us thought they may have had some sort of bargaining chip that was going to boost the share price this Q, but to date that is clearly not the case.
At what point do we start to question Mgmt's ability to produce results?
I welcome an explanation as to why the TASE issuance is more beneficial than swapping dept for stocks would have been, thanks.
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Post by liane on Nov 10, 2015 12:45:03 GMT -5
No answers here (your questinos seem valid). Love the (family portrait?) avatar!
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Post by jurystillout on Nov 10, 2015 14:00:13 GMT -5
Because when they get de-listed from Nasdaq they still have a home.
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Post by patryn on Nov 10, 2015 14:37:52 GMT -5
Can't speak for management but the most likely answer is that they had a deal ready to announce that got torpedoed or the expectation of more marketing and sales effort in the last quarter from SNY would produce results.
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Post by jonnykrush on Nov 10, 2015 14:57:52 GMT -5
No answers here (your questinos seem valid). Love the (family portrait?) avatar! Yes, those are our fur babies in lieu of human children. Thanks for the input so far people. |
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Post by kball on Nov 10, 2015 15:02:45 GMT -5
shares 6 weeks ago, MNKD stands firm on the floor price of $4.40 or so, providing ammo for shorts and sending the sp into a death spiral; whereby they have to spend $64mil in cash to retire the bonds and now have to dilute to the tune of 50mil shares in a few days after the sp is driven down some more in order to stay afloat? Am I missing something or does this seem like an extremely negligent fiscal decision? Granted, hindsight is 20/20 here but as the chief officers of a $1billion corp. I feel that some of this should have been reasonably foreseeable for Matt, Hakan and the rest. By standing firm in their convictions I think most of us thought they may have had some sort of bargaining chip that was going to boost the share price this Q, but to date that is clearly not the case.
At what point do we start to question Mgmt's ability to produce results? I welcome an explanation as to why the TASE issuance is more beneficial than swapping dept for stocks would have been, thanks. If i had to take a stab at it and your assumption is correct, I'd say a pain partnership was hoped for but not negotiated in time...hence PLAN C? |
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Nov 10, 2015 15:06:34 GMT -5
Yes... in hindsight that seems a misstep. Though if they hand't have had the floor on the conversion and perhaps picked a particular date and discount... e.g. 3% discount to a particular day's close... who says the stock wouldn't have tanked back then? If it were a fixed dollar amount converting into shares on a particular day with no floor, the dilution would be potentially unlimited and the shorts would have jumped in full force. Though, there may well have been something between that scenario and the way it played out that would have been superior to both... I'm just not smart enough to know exactly how one navigates those sort of things. Getting from point A to point B may seem easy... until you find you're in a war zone and someone is shooting at you.
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Post by bill on Nov 10, 2015 15:09:38 GMT -5
If you want to dream... Maybe MNKD has at least one more arrow left in their quiver. If they do and they let it fly once the TASE indices have become longs the shorts could find themselves in a bit of bother as the indices increase their purchases and MNKD gets listed on the big TASE-25 index. Just a dream but you never know.
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Post by jpg on Nov 10, 2015 15:16:25 GMT -5
When the share price was 10$ or so I kept on wondering why they didn't do a round of 'minimally dilutive financing' to raise enough capital to ride through any rough patches. This is what other biotechs often do. It's almost standard operating procedure for biotechs with their kind of balance sheet. The fact they didn't do it made me think they really had an amazing and rock solid 'bullet proof' game plan. I even though of it as a plus that this was one exceptional biotech... Wow was that wrong.
Arrogance and hubris is more likely (and those are the polite adjectives I would use to describe this 'deviation from standard operating procedure'). Some may say the retrospective view is easy but then why do so many biotechs do exactly that when their share price is high? Mannkind seems to enjoy flirting with insolvency. We give them a pass because Mann is there. But we still get diluted at the very lows instead of at the peaks.
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Post by jonnykrush on Nov 10, 2015 16:37:20 GMT -5
Yes... in hindsight that seems a misstep. Though if they hand't have had the floor on the conversion and perhaps picked a particular date and discount... e.g. 3% discount to a particular day's close... who says the stock wouldn't have tanked back then? If it were a fixed dollar amount converting into shares on a particular day with no floor, the dilution would be potentially unlimited and the shorts would have jumped in full force. Though, there may well have been something between that scenario and the way it played out that would have been superior to both... I'm just not smart enough to know exactly how one navigates those sort of things. Getting from point A to point B may seem easy... until you find you're in a war zone and someone is shooting at you. Well, it did tank back then to well below the floor, MNKD was unwilling to lower the floor, so no conversion. I sincerely hope that a TS deal is in the works, but at one of the investor conferences a little while ago Matt specifically indicated they preferred to develop their own, not partner if they could help it. I thought that strange given the need for $$$$. I suppose we'll just have to ride out the storm and hope for some positive developments soon. Thanks all. |
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Post by mnholdem on Nov 10, 2015 18:47:49 GMT -5
That's not quite what has been stated by management. They stated that going with API that are already FDA-approved is the quickest, lowest-cost way to market. Partnering with a BP for developing a novel drug would take the longest & be the most costly.
They (Hakan/Matt) did not say that partnering with a BP to develop an existing FDA-approved API (or a generic) is not desirable. In fact, Hakan said just the opposite today. They have begun talks with potential development and/or financial partners for the API list that they simply cannot afford to develop on their own at this time.
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Post by lakers on Nov 10, 2015 19:15:59 GMT -5
That's not quite what has been stated by management. They stated that going with API that are already FDA-approved is the quickest, lowest-cost way to market. Partnering with a BP for developing a novel drug would take the longest & be the most costly. They (Hakan/Matt) did not say that partnering with a BP to develop an existing FDA-approved API (or a generic) is not desirable. In fact, Hakan said just the opposite today. They have begun talks with potential development and/or financial partners for the API list that they simply cannot afford to develop on their own at this time. At Aegis Capital, 10/8/15 : Looking at drugs which take advantage of TS features besides just eliminating the injection. Not practical to develop new chemical entities so working for next product to be a known drug. Occasionally look at NCE’s which are nice to look at but it would be a 10 year process. 10:00 Spent a lot of time and money on the consulting process to select 2 new applications / drug candidates. First indication would be pulmonary hypertension. This is a serious effort on the company’s behalf. The R&D activities are fully staffed and preclinical work has been/is being done. We can look forward to hearing more news about this soon but not at the moment. Licensing tech to other companies - have to be careful not create competitors to ourselves. |
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