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Post by derek2 on Nov 10, 2015 14:52:06 GMT -5
From me, of all people...
You know, the hate is full on now with this stock, and people now seem to understand that the label is bland and the deal sets challenging sales targets before MNKD is able to publish positive earnings, but some may be throwing the baby out with the bath water:
1. MNKD has never stayed too far from $5.00 for too long (whether high or low in share price, it tends to revert to that mean) Even adjusting down to $4.00 due to recent (and near future) dilution, that's a pretty good upside.
2. Hope springs eternal. Day traders and momo traders love this stock. Personally, I think that's what leads to much of its volatility around catalyst dates. Sooner or later, the herd will be back at it, and the share price could once again bounce.
3. MNKD has bought itself time for item #2 to happen. We have a year to 18 months. That's a lot of time for something to happen, like another drug entering the pipeline.
4. Maybe Rx numbers, sales, label improvement will end up happening after all. I leave this until last, but it would be great. I just think that looking at things from a historic behavioural POV give an interesting contrarian view and maybe an opportunity to make some money long.
MNKD is risky and always has been, but there could be some opportunity here apart from the drug, the partner, or sales.
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Post by jpg on Nov 10, 2015 14:59:47 GMT -5
So you are now basically describing a traders stock and #4 (which is what investors really care about) is almost an after thought and starts off with 'maybe'... Reassuring no?
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Post by harryx1 on Nov 10, 2015 15:01:10 GMT -5
Here's something positive!  |
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Post by Chris-C on Nov 10, 2015 15:06:00 GMT -5
Derek:
Thanks for the positive post. I agree with your comments. Although the CC wasn't the best in many ways, several folks have pointed out that aside from the dilution, eroded share price, and piling on by analysts; nothing fundamental has changed. If MNKD was a good investment based on the potential of Afrezza and Technosphere a year ago, it remains a good investment today. To a certain extent, perhaps, we are victims of our own optimistic expectations for growth and our underestimation of the significance of the barriers. As a result, MNKD today is the Rodney Dangerfield of Wall Street, so it helps to keep things in perspective.
The stock is on sale right now. I never expected to pick some up for under $2.50; but thanks Wall Street. These shares will join the others in my portfolio that are not available for shorting, as I don't support the self-defeating notion of lending my shares.
I'll be patiently awaiting some additional good news...
GLTAL
Chris-C
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Post by derek2 on Nov 10, 2015 15:08:01 GMT -5
So you are now basically describing a traders stock and #4 (which is what investors really care about) is almost an after thought and starts off with 'maybe'... Reassuring no? Well, it could be a rationale to hold or get back in or double down while waiting for things to improve. It's pretty well known that I've thought most people's estimates of #4 to be overblown, but I suspect the overall sentiment has gone too far negative. After Nov 12th could be an interesting time for entry. I made sure that I transferred all cash out of my speculative account in order to avoid a knee-jerk average down with MNKD. I may need to think hard about transferring some back in. I've never lost money investing in the 2's with MNKD. Although this could be the first time, this last week's action has it looking tasty again. |
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Post by patryn on Nov 10, 2015 15:14:33 GMT -5
Here's my positive thoughts. 1. We have reached a critical mass of either disillusioned or otherwise motivated investors both on this board and in the MNKD ecosystem in general which is a strong buy signal. 2. MNKD and SNY know that this next year is a critical time and they seem to be taking steps to really increase the marketing and sales of Afrezza. 3. There is definitely a floor at which the intellectual property and assets of MNKD will be snapped up by someone. 4. For the next year the upside is far greater than the downside due to the above factors. 5. (just for grins) The market crash is coming and bashers will have plenty of other stocks to worry about tanking than little ole' MNKD  |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 10, 2015 15:20:50 GMT -5
Here's my positive thoughts. 1. We have reached a critical mass of either disillusioned or otherwise motivated investors both on this board and in the MNKD ecosystem in general which is a strong buy signal. 2. MNKD and SNY know that this next year is a critical time and they seem to be taking steps to really increase the marketing and sales of Afrezza. 3. There is definitely a floor at which the intellectual property and assets of MNKD will be snapped up by someone. 4. For the next year the upside is far greater than the downside due to the above factors. 5. (just for grins) The market crash is coming and bashers will have plenty of other stocks to worry about tanking than little ole' MNKD :) Right now the SP is such that the IP is worth more than market cap. If some other top 30 pharma were to throw out a bid for a few billion, they are still getting a deal. Could be an interesting play to get game changing technology and bust Sanofi's chops a bit in the process and force their hand. Although once the bid hits the tape, SP will pop. |
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Post by mindovermatter on Nov 10, 2015 15:25:13 GMT -5
Here's my positive thoughts. 1. We have reached a critical mass of either disillusioned or otherwise motivated investors both on this board and in the MNKD ecosystem in general which is a strong buy signal. 2. MNKD and SNY know that this next year is a critical time and they seem to be taking steps to really increase the marketing and sales of Afrezza. 3. There is definitely a floor at which the intellectual property and assets of MNKD will be snapped up by someone. 4. For the next year the upside is far greater than the downside due to the above factors. 5. (just for grins) The market crash is coming and bashers will have plenty of other stocks to worry about tanking than little ole' MNKD Right now the SP is such that the IP is worth more than market cap. If some other top 30 pharma were to throw out a bid for a few billion, they are still getting a deal. Could be an interesting play to get game changing technology and bust Sanofi's chops a bit in the process and force their hand. Although once the bid hits the tape, SP will pop. What is the IP worth in you estimation? |
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Post by jpg on Nov 10, 2015 15:28:05 GMT -5
Patryn,
If it come to that the IP will go to bond holders and not stock holders. No way Mann sells before that. His heirs might see it differently though and could be amiable to a deal before it gets to the bond holder vs shareholder stage of things.
We have to trust management to tell us that there are no problems with Sanofi. The same guys who told us financing was good and that sales and partnerships for TS etc were imminent.
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Post by stevil on Nov 10, 2015 15:34:48 GMT -5
Derek: Thanks for the positive post. I agree with your comments. Although the CC wasn't the best in many ways, several folks have pointed out that aside from the dilution, eroded share price, and piling on by analysts; nothing fundamental has changed. If MNKD was a good investment based on the potential of Afrezza and Technosphere a year ago, it remains a good investment today. To a certain extent, perhaps, we are victims of our own optimistic expectations for growth and our underestimation of the significance of the barriers. As a result, MNKD today is the Rodney Dangerfield of Wall Street, so it helps to keep things in perspective. The stock is on sale right now. I never expected to pick some up for under $2.50; but thanks Wall Street. These shares will join the others in my portfolio that are not available for shorting, as I don't support the self-defeating notion of lending my shares. I'll be patiently awaiting some additional good news... GLTAL Chris-C Chris-C, You're a good poster so I hope you don't mind me replying to you. Just want to point out that if MNKD was a good investment based on the potential of Afrezza and TS that we should see some indication of that. I'm not saying that it's a bad investment. It is a bad investment RIGHT NOW. And while many, many drugs have taken off after their first year on the market, the likelihood of success is lower now than it was a year ago. Add to that the impending cash flow problems and your logic isn't fully sound. The longer this drags out without truly good news, the less likely this will end up being a good investment. Time is not on our side at the moment. We have to establish ourselves before time can be our ally. That hasn't happened yet. |
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Post by stevil on Nov 10, 2015 15:36:56 GMT -5
Patryn, If it come to that the IP will go to bond holders and not stock holders. No way Mann sells before that. His heirs might see it differently though and could be amiable to a deal before it gets to the bond holder vs shareholder stage of things. We have to trust management to tell us that there are no problems with Sanofi. The same guys who told us financing was good and that sales and partnerships for TS etc were imminent. Didn't Mann come out and say that he isn't leaving his estate to his offspring? Only like 10% of it or something like that? I'm hoping he has very detailed instructions on how his money will be used and that most of it will go to ensuring the survival of MNKD as long as needed. |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 10, 2015 15:39:26 GMT -5
Right now the SP is such that the IP is worth more than market cap. If some other top 30 pharma were to throw out a bid for a few billion, they are still getting a deal. Could be an interesting play to get game changing technology and bust Sanofi's chops a bit in the process and force their hand. Although once the bid hits the tape, SP will pop. What is the IP worth in you estimation? Can't give a specific # but what I posted the other day was that I heard some chatter about Humira which has $10B+ in 2014 sales going off patent at end of 2016. Not sure if Humira would even work with Technosphere. If drug X has $3B in annual sales and is going off patent in 2-4 years, what is it worth to have it's patent extended because it can now be inhaled with Technosphere? Say the best guess is that the maker of drug X keeps 60% of patients on it's new Technosphere based product i.e. $1.8B and lets say because of Technosphere they ramp over 2-3 years an additional $1.2B in sales by taking share from competitors due to ease of dosing, PK, etc. For a drug that is going off patent, what it is worth to strike a deal with Mannkind so that a $3B revenue stream is extended for another decade or so? The precise answer is a shitload. And how much does the deal get amped up if the maker of drug X requests an exclusive within the therapeutic class and the annual revenue projections jump to $5B? Sorry to be vague and use large round numbers but you get the idea. Could MNKD blow up, yep it could. BioTech investing is risky. It could also be worth hundreds of dollars per share and maybe not overnight but you never know when big mo kicks in and that is what many have been waiting for. |
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Post by patryn on Nov 10, 2015 15:42:32 GMT -5
Patryn, If it come to that the IP will go to bond holders and not stock holders. No way Mann sells before that. His heirs might see it differently though and could be amiable to a deal before it gets to the bond holder vs shareholder stage of things. We have to trust management to tell us that there are no problems with Sanofi. The same guys who told us financing was good and that sales and partnerships for TS etc were imminent. jpg, Hindsight is always 20/20 and it's easy to see where the management could have made different decisions in the past year. I do not fully trust that there are no problems with SNY. But I do think that management which has a large amount of net worth tied into their own shares of MNKD will be doing their best to maximize the value of the company. They may well not be the best people for the job and as I noted earlier, I am incredibly disappointed with some of the disingenuous statements made via email by Matt - better to be forthright and tell people you can't speak about something privately than to give misleading answers. But at the same time, this is the same management team that has the endorsement of the majority of shareholders - if they did not - the board would have been voted out and they would have lost their jobs. They are doing what they can to creatively work on financing while SNY marketing and sales finally gets around to doing what they are suppose to be good at. As for the intellectual property, I maintain that if the company were partitioned out and sold today, there would be a floor price of around 1.5 billion in market cap - I did these calculations a while back based on IP, comparable sales of other late stage biotechs, and % of sales of Afrezza based on very modest projections which means the shareholders would have something left over after the bond holders got their cut. Not what I am looking for, but it does give me the ability to weather the short term price fluctuations. |
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