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Post by Deleted on Nov 13, 2015 8:21:15 GMT -5
MNKD needs leverage and time. 140 million is a lot of money which could keep MNKD afloat for over a year. Is there an Al Mann put? I am surprised Al has not jumped in yet by purchasing shares in the open market or increasing the $ available through the Mann Group.
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Post by pktrump on Nov 13, 2015 9:00:44 GMT -5
After the SNY partnership and agreement was announced, I was not impressed with the deal/arrangement MNKD made, but erroneously thought the financial viabiity of MNKD was off the table for years. When SNY fired Viehbacher after the deal and eventually hired Brandicourt, who was with Pfizer for over a decade, I was concerned about his opinion of AFZ. I emailed Matt about at the time and he gave a neutral reply of basically 'We'll see.' Certainly, Noone at MNKD knew him when the partnership and deal was being made.
Noting recently what SNY has agreed to paid upfront for SGLT inhinbtors, which are in phase III for Type I (300million up front, 1.4 B milestone for Lexicon), and given the lackluster comments by Brandicourt, my concerns have grown. My conviction in AFZ has never waivered, but Ins covg, Phase IV studies, and getting it to Diabetics is the most important step at this point. If SNY does not initiate 8K pt safety study, SNY's committment will b highly doubted IMO. Haken's last CC was also concerning in many regards..
Perception is reality. THe perception is wrongly or rightly among many that SNY is not committed. We need objective info from MNKD and SNY. Until, that time, this long since 2008 will not add to position.
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Post by Chris-C on Nov 13, 2015 11:23:44 GMT -5
After the SNY partnership and agreement was announced, I was not impressed with the deal/arrangement MNKD made, but erroneously thought the financial viabiity of MNKD was off the table for years. When SNY fired Viehbacher after the deal and eventually hired Brandicourt, who was with Pfizer for over a decade, I was concerned about his opinion of AFZ. I emailed Matt about at the time and he gave a neutral reply of basically 'We'll see.' Certainly, Noone at MNKD knew him when the partnership and deal was being made. Noting recently what SNY has agreed to paid upfront for SGLT inhinbtors, which are in phase III for Type I (300million up front, 1.4 B milestone for Lexicon), and given the lackluster comments by Brandicourt, my concerns have grown. My conviction in AFZ has never waivered, but Ins covg, Phase IV studies, and getting it to Diabetics is the most important step at this point. If SNY does not initiate 8K pt safety study, SNY's committment will b highly doubted IMO. Haken's last CC was also concerning in many regards.. Perception is reality. THe perception is wrongly or rightly among many that SNY is not committed. We need objective info from MNKD and SNY. Until, that time, this long since 2008 will not add to position. I think the dialogue on this board has been fascinating with respect to the multiple ambiguities surrounding Sanofi's commitment. Personally, because I have a large (for me) stake that is solidly in the red, (like so many others here), I have a tendency to give Sanofi the benefit of the doubt and to constantly remind myself that just because I would be more comfortable if certain things were clearer does not have any influence whatsoever on the universe of events occurring. At the end of the day, we have facts and speculation. The verifiable facts are dwarfed by the speculations; which too often take on a life of their own and become "folk" understandings. I remind myself that I invested in Mannkind because I believe in its science, and I acknowledge that this doesn't guarantee the success of the company. But the "real world" results continue to support my conclusions about the science. I trust Al Mann and I believe that both Mannkind and Sanofi are making good faith efforts to assure that Afrezza will become a commercial success. The real world results with Afrezza are simply too phenomenal for Sanofi to abandon its effort at this point in the process. And, as others, I don't think for a moment that Mr. Mann will permit Mannkind to go bankrupt. History argues against that, (because the best predictor of future behavior is past behavior) and he has a legacy plan that is driven by his sense of humanity and philanthropy. I can assure you that when we are in our 90s, (God willing) our resolve to secure our legacies will be stronger than at any other point in our lives. Most of us will be striving to leave the world a better place through our actions and to be remembered for having done so. Is Sanofi doing as much as we would like it to do? Who knows with certainty? But the case being made that SNY is intentionally sabotaging success is not based on fact. We do know that SNY recognizes that scripts are lagging projections, but we also know that SNY has a very clear understanding why and is working to address those problems with a reasonable game plan (explained as first educate and get formulary changes, then market ) by Mr. Edstrom in a recent conference call. There is factual evidence that this is happening— (despite its seemingly glacial pace). Another truth is that Afrezza is a very small part of SNY's corporate strategic plan. Any perceived inattention to Afrezza must first be attributed to that reality. Is Mr Brandicourt fully on board? Since he did not make the deal, and he knows by experience the formidable challenges facing inhaled insulin, my hunch is he is withholding judgment until studies are done, label changes occur (or not),formulary decisions are made and scripts pick up. In this situation, I would expect to see exactly what Sanofi has done...communicate that the process of commercialization continues apace. Nothing more, nothing less. Brandicourt does not have to go out on a limb and endorse his predecessors actions. Why would he? We humans are creatures who understand the world in story form. The story of Mannkind is archetypal. The story-line is one of overcoming adversity and realizing success. Whether it concludes this way is yet to be known. But I do know this—progress is being made, the people on the front lines are working hard to achieve success, and we will know how the story is progressing (or indeed, how it is likely to conclude) with much greater clarity six months from now. In the meantime, I remain patient and committed, watching the drama unfold. I'm betting on a happy ending...that's precisely why I am long and not lending. GLTAL Chris C P.S. I did acquire more shares this week. I didn't use all my dry powder, but since I've paid over twice as much for much of my position, I couldn't resist a few more. I was struck by the similarities between events this week and the the days leading up to the AdCom.
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Post by pktrump on Nov 13, 2015 12:19:37 GMT -5
Chris.
A fantastic post. Thanks.
PK
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Post by Deleted on Nov 13, 2015 12:37:28 GMT -5
Way to go Chris. This is the kind of post I like to read. I've never doubted for a second Sanofi's commitment to Afrezza. Once we get through all the studies, tier 2 coverage efforts, and label change, Sanofi will ramp up with Afrezza in a big way. Till then it's boogie boarding, instead of surfing. Aloha.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 13, 2015 12:50:18 GMT -5
Btw, I don't know if many are paying attention, but Sanofi shareholders can't be very happy either. The SP over there has been in steady decline the past 10 days and Sanofi hit a new 52-week low this morning. Sound familiar?
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Post by rch51 on Nov 13, 2015 12:54:50 GMT -5
Way to go Chris. This is the kind of post I like to read. I've never doubted for a second Sanofi's commitment to Afrezza. Once we get through all the studies, tier 2 coverage efforts, and label change, Sanofi will ramp up with Afrezza in a big way. Till then it's boogie boarding, instead of surfing. Aloha. I agree with most of the above. The sticking point for me is how is MNKD going to stay afloat while all of these precursors unfold? Studies take time, insurance tier improvements take time, educating disbelieving docs takes time. How are we to weather these time consuming processes if we have very little rope to hang onto?
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Post by Chris-C on Nov 13, 2015 18:14:24 GMT -5
Way to go Chris. This is the kind of post I like to read. I've never doubted for a second Sanofi's commitment to Afrezza. Once we get through all the studies, tier 2 coverage efforts, and label change, Sanofi will ramp up with Afrezza in a big way. Till then it's boogie boarding, instead of surfing. Aloha. I agree with most of the above. The sticking point for me is how is MNKD going to stay afloat while all of these precursors unfold? Studies take time, insurance tier improvements take time, educating disbelieving docs takes time. How are we to weather these time consuming processes if we have very little rope to hang onto? rch51: Thanks for your question; which is on the minds of most of us here (and which, legitimately, happens to align with the latest "flavor" of uncertainty being broadcast by the shorts). I personally find it reassuring when three sources that have little credibility (AF, Motley F and often, SA; sing the same tune). Right now, it's all about bankruptcy and debt. Never is there a mention of spectacular real world results or other potential Technosophere applications. Clearly, the MNKD management team is focused, as they should be, on the urgent need for cash. The TASE offering, described by Motley Fool as a "hail Mary" desperation move, is being spun negatively by the usual sources. Why selling shares in Tel Aviv is desperate rather than creative and cunning is solely a matter of perspective. Would it have been described as a "hail Mary" move if it was done in the US? Selling shares brings in cash. So can partnerships and licensing deals. Meantime, studies are underway that hopefully will lead toward label changes, which I believe will assist greatly in persuading docs and insurors that Afrezza is the real deal. How long this will take is a critical question. There is, of course, further dilution as an option, and as a last resort, an additional infusion of capital from Alfred Mann. (I note that an additional year would require a $120M commitment from him—easily achievable). Many have talked of the tipping point when sales will really begin to gain traction. When this will occur is anybody's guess. It's a race against time, but it is without dispute that we are closer to this point today than at any time in the company's history. As for me, I'd feel a great deal better if MNKD had sufficient cash on hand to see it clear through the end of 2017. I believe that timeframe will be sufficient for getting approvals offshore, finishing studies, changing labels, achieving formulary changes, and getting the word widely out about this extraordinary weapon for diabetics. In the meantime, I would expect some conversations about pricing as well, and no doubt these will be occurring between MNKD, SNY, and insurance providers. Waiting can be a challenge. But at least, with Mannkind, it is an interesting journey. Good luck to you and to all my long colleagues on this board. Chris C
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