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Post by kball on Nov 11, 2015 19:14:28 GMT -5
Thanks nsmyth & tmann, yeah. @sportsrancho From my perspective it wouldn't be fair to anyone if I wrote a bunch of positive looking articles (like I have) and then sold and went quiet. That's not fair to anyone. Honesty, although painful sometimes, is ALWAYS the best route. Though it may have benefitted you more to wait 31 days to buy back in. Now you cant take the loss against gains in other stocks you may own. I was very very close to selling and taking the big hit today against selling a stock i've had a 9 fold increase in since 08 as i never thought i'd be able to sell that without a big cap gains hit until today. Instead i was paralyzed and did nothing but sweat it out. Yet to see if i was smart, dumb, or just lucky. |
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Post by mnkdfann on Nov 11, 2015 19:41:05 GMT -5
Exactly. Come back in a week and then decide whether your actions today were wise or foolhardy.
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Post by mssciguy on Nov 11, 2015 19:43:48 GMT -5
Hopefully I've downloaded the software update for my nose so I don't fall for it next time. No software upgrade required, just some common sense. @kastanes , You deserve the MNKD Common Sense Nobel Prize for "Mentally Prepare yourself for $2" -- great call. |
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Post by BlueCat on Nov 11, 2015 19:47:26 GMT -5
Is the mea culpa helping soothe it? Perhaps consider the commission fees and 2 years off the life from stress a small investment in an important lesson. And we all hope it pays off! The Q did not sell. We were also fortunately away from the virtual desk most of the day, so could only watch in horror but like Kastanes, the RAT was really just too big and loud on this one. And he was very, very brazen in his squawking, so was not motivated to put hands anywhere near keyboard for any action. The larger truth is that I'm so far under, might as well ride it out. I did this once before - rode another stock to the very bottom, but by holding until the take private managed to take only a 40%, rather than 75% loss. Though I'm still wondering if it might have been better for IRS reasons to take the massive loss ….. Yep. Live 'n learn. And here with MNKD, even after many years, I'm certainly not done ….. |
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Post by BlueCat on Nov 11, 2015 19:48:20 GMT -5
Thanks nsmyth & tmann, yeah. @sportsrancho From my perspective it wouldn't be fair to anyone if I wrote a bunch of positive looking articles (like I have) and then sold and went quiet. That's not fair to anyone. Honesty, although painful sometimes, is ALWAYS the best route. Though it may have benefitted you more to wait 31 days to buy back in. Now you cant take the loss against gains in other stocks you may own. I was very very close to selling and taking the big hit today against selling a stock i've had a 9 fold increase in since 08 as i never thought i'd be able to sell that without a big cap gains hit until today. Instead i was paralyzed and did nothing but sweat it out. Yet to see if i was smart, dumb, or just lucky. Kball - yet further improvements to that avatar! I will note that the background mountains/trees actually look like green smoke coming out of the ears. After today, quite appropriately, too….. |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 11, 2015 19:58:04 GMT -5
No software upgrade required, just some common sense. @kastanes , You deserve the MNKD Common Sense Nobel Prize for "Mentally Prepare yourself for $2" -- great call. I recall the firestorm that thread created. As an put option trader, the willingness of some to give me nearly a dollar for $2 puts was flashing sub $2. |
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Post by mssciguy on Nov 11, 2015 20:06:00 GMT -5
@kastanes , You deserve the MNKD Common Sense Nobel Prize for "Mentally Prepare yourself for $2" -- great call. I recall the firestorm that thread created. As an put option trader, the willingness of some to give me nearly a dollar for $2 puts was flashing sub $2. What are your current common sense put option trader insights into what will happen in Jan 16? Will the warrants be worth anything? Today they were quoted at 20 cents --- ten times less than what I paid just a few months ago. It's just amazing how many people get screwed with this stock, options, warrants -- unless you study this objectively... You play this well, congratulations. Maybe you could give some advice to mgmt. They sorely need help. |
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Post by rch51 on Nov 11, 2015 20:15:47 GMT -5
Boy do I feel dumb after today. Let's just say, I feel like it's still 10am, but it's 5:30pm, at the same time, I feel like it's midnight. Today, I went against everything I know not to do (and to do) and I can tell you, it doesn't feel good. I panicked today. I saw the AF tweet, I looked into it, realized it was from a reputable source (Globes in Israel) and thought I could get out before the time ran out of the MNKD clock. My reasoning had nothing to do with MannKind's technology, Technosphere, it's main drug, Afrezza, or Sanofi's commitment to MannKind. In fact, I walked away from Monday's conference call feeling happy. Sanofi isn't going anywhere, we're moving the pipeline along, and we are solving the cash flow problem by issuing shares to long term holders. These shares are not allowed to be sold short and sure they'd be at a discounted rate, but as the pps falls, more shares would need to be bought by the ETFs to satisfy the $ amount needed hold "x%" of MNKD in their fund. Thus, there was the scenario in which more (possibly a lot more) than the 50M shares MannKind offered, would need to be bought by the ETFs, solving BOTH the cash flow problem AND more institutional ownership. When the news struck, I panicked. Since MannKind needs cash, I thought "without the funding, we won't be able to function, the world is falling, oh no, etc." and I sold. I a large chunk of my position at $2.06 this morning. I felt smart and immediately rewarded when we dipped below $2, below $1.90, and below $1.80. It's silly, because I never invested more than I could afford to lose, but I let my emotions get out of hand. I got spoofed. I got swept up in my emotions and I drank the FUD straight from the fire hydrant. I didn't do enough due diligence to find a quote from the source -- I didn't realize there wasn't one. This is exactly how FUD is supposed to work, and I'm ashamed to admit it, but it did. I have no doubt this was orchestrated in order to allow shorts to cover in the $1's where they shorted after the FDA denial of Afrezza. Hopefully, the book is closed and we can sit back for now. As the news began to unfold that this was not true, I got labeled a "fake long" a "short" and a whole host of nasty things on both ST & YMB. (Shocker, right?) In reality, I made quite the stupid mistake in panicking. It's really too bad, but it happened. I apologize to those of whom I startled. 25,000,000 shares were traded today. I have a feeling I wasn't the only one. Today, I capitulated.
Luckily, I was able to re-enter right about where I sold and am now where I was at the start of the day, minus commissions, and plus some un-needed stress. Lesson Learned.So have a great night and thank you to those of you who reached out privately to me. Much appreciated. I could have written your post. Precisely the same thing happened to me. I watched the bottom fall out in a matter of 30 minutes, saw a falling knife and panicked. I sold off my entire 75k share position. Thankfully, I re-entered an hour later with just a penny per share lost. My basis is now $1.99, hopefully that will inoculate me from more impulsive moves. I too learned a valuable and what could have been a very expensive lesson. |
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Post by bioexec25 on Nov 11, 2015 20:36:38 GMT -5
cfield can't add anything else to the above comments. But hey I'm just glad you can now write your next piece you spoke about. Your last blog article was really quite good and I have read too many to count. Also, I've gotta give you a little stick for the accidental fud last week. :-)). We're better with you here as a long to be sure.
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Post by kc on Nov 11, 2015 20:48:45 GMT -5
If the TASE was true, MannKind would have filed with the SEC. I immediately smelled a rat and did not sell. Thankfully my nose did not let me down. Correct! That is why I didn't panic but I was very confused today about what was going on. You can't blame the company for not making any comments as they were not aware of the situation till after the avalanche started. I am sure they worked at that point to talk to the SEC but it was too late. Anytime there is action of a material of the company files in the head with the SEC and they would've stopped trading if this was a midday event that was going to be disruptive to the company. We need to remember the reason SEC filings are before or after trading hours so there is no impact on what is happening. So we know this was a game played by Adam and his short friends to farm and disrupt the share price of MannKind. |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 11, 2015 21:15:45 GMT -5
I recall the firestorm that thread created. As an put option trader, the willingness of some to give me nearly a dollar for $2 puts was flashing sub $2. What are your current common sense put option trader insights into what will happen in Jan 16? Will the warrants be worth anything? Today they were quoted at 20 cents --- ten times less than what I paid just a few months ago. It's just amazing how many people get screwed with this stock, options, warrants -- unless you study this objectively... You play this well, congratulations. Maybe you could give some advice to mgmt. They sorely need help. I have been battling Wall Street for decades using options, but unfortunately with less to show than the gain in a S&P 500 index fund. Regarding MNKD, I sold 2016 put options after approval starting with $10 and $7, and continued selling lower priced 2017 put options between $5 and $1 as the price fell to the middle $3 range. I have since rolled-out the 2016s to 2017s and will continue to do so until the price is above the strike price at expiration allowing me to pocket the option premium. Hopefully that makes sense? |
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Post by patryn on Nov 11, 2015 23:33:36 GMT -5
It takes real courage of conviction to post when you are selling just as you posted why you were buying. I applaud you for it and even though at the time, I believed it was the right decision for you because the emotions were running rampant and that dread feeling in the stomach was not going away, I am also heartened that you got back in and want to continue this MNKD journey with all of us. I realized I too had succumbed to emotions and actually broke my investment plan by transferring in money that was not intended for my MNKD holdings. It's not money I need right away but it was meant for another endeavor I am trying to fund so I will have to make it up through other means now (I hear panhandling is really lucrative here at Disney World, Orlando). But that greedy part of my mind couldn't resist 2.21 (dang how did you all get in near or under $2  and I pulled the trigger. I may come to regret that over the next months, but I am not immune to my own emotional turmoil. Hey if the price keeps going down maybe I will be the one filing my Schedule 13D before SNY does |
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Post by babaoriley on Nov 11, 2015 23:40:37 GMT -5
Funny you mention that.. SODA was my first battle ground stock and I learned a lot about FUD from it. I ended up finally getting out of that stock after several years and never turned a profit but got a good education on it. You did, and you're in MNKD?  |
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Post by babaoriley on Nov 11, 2015 23:46:51 GMT -5
I think the story had some truth to it, but MNKD was likely aware that was a potential problem and worked a compromise that, for now anyway, has allowed the deal to go forward. I assume there lawyers and underwriters knew of the potential issue that was caught by the ISA. Of course, it wouldn't surprise me in the least if a Shrkli type nudged them.
There's a lot of chapters yet to be read in this story, hard to say the correctness of anyone's actions today at the present time. But great stories, showing how this whole investing in speculative companies is psychologically driven.
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Post by cfield23 on Nov 11, 2015 23:59:32 GMT -5
It takes real courage of conviction to post when you are selling just as you posted why you were buying. I applaud you for it and even though at the time, I believed it was the right decision for you because the emotions were running rampant and that dread feeling in the stomach was not going away, I am also heartened that you got back in and want to continue this MNKD journey with all of us. I realized I too had succumbed to emotions and actually broke my investment plan by transferring in money that was not intended for my MNKD holdings. It's not money I need right away but it was meant for another endeavor I am trying to fund so I will have to make it up through other means now (I hear panhandling is really lucrative here at Disney World, Orlando). But that greedy part of my mind couldn't resist 2.21 (dang how did you all get in near or under $2 and I pulled the trigger. I may come to regret that over the next months, but I am not immune to my own emotional turmoil. Hey if the price keeps going down maybe I will be the one filing my Schedule 13D before SNY does Appreciate that. Honesty is best. |
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and I pulled the trigger. I may come to regret that over the next months, but I am not immune to my own emotional turmoil. Hey if the price keeps going down maybe I will be the one filing my Schedule 13D before SNY does
