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Post by bill on Nov 12, 2015 16:35:28 GMT -5
$30 million plus to get by till March $25 million Dev milestone by then that buys 2 qtrs When the remaining shares are taken out of market ( 37 million ) by TASE , share price will start to recover along with sales.. Is that the game plan? Didn't Hakan say there were no more dev milestones coming? I think you and many other posters have a very wrong idea about those 50 million shares. As far as I can tell, the 50 million was a maximum number that had no bearing whatsoever with how many shares the TASE indices needed to buy based on MNKD's market cap. I estimated about 25 - 30 million shares need to be purchased by Sunday, not 50 million. If anyone is so inclined you can do your own math using TASE indices data. If I'm correct, the TASE indices only need to purchase 17 million shares by Sunday and my guess is more than half, and possibly most of it has already been purchased between yesterday and today.
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Post by bill on Nov 12, 2015 16:39:30 GMT -5
It will be interesting to see today's (Thursday's) short volume. It may give us some idea about how much shorting was being done to keep the share price in line. If the TASE indices were buying heavily I would have expected the share price to go much higher than the 18.5% we saw today since we saw a doubling of share price back in June when about 9 million shares were covered. OTOH, the shorts seem to be very adept at hiding high volumes of naked counterfeit shares. I have no idea what limits they may be operating under.
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Post by me on Nov 12, 2015 16:47:49 GMT -5
Didn't Hakan say there were no more dev milestones coming? I think you and many other posters have a very wrong idea about those 50 million shares. As far as I can tell, the 50 million was a maximum number that had no bearing whatsoever with how many shares the TASE indices needed to buy based on MNKD's market cap. I estimated about 25 - 30 million shares need to be purchased by Sunday, not 50 million. If anyone is so inclined you can do your own math using TASE indices data. If I'm correct, the TASE indices only need to purchase 17 million shares by Sunday and my guess is more than half, and possibly most of it has already been purchased between yesterday and today. That calculation of the value (not number of shares) of MNKD shares ETFs needed to purchase has already been calculated by TASE and resulted in the need for $107 million USD of MNKD shares at the purchase price of $2.61 USD per share, or 41 million shares needed by the ETFs. With almost 14 million acquired directly from MNKD, that means approximately 27 million additional shares need to be/have already been acquired by 11/15/2015.
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Post by boytroy88 on Nov 12, 2015 16:58:33 GMT -5
Okay, I'm confused. Do the ETFs have to purchase a certain amount of shares or are they already done with it and the amount reported of 13mil+ it?
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Post by cathode on Nov 12, 2015 17:06:10 GMT -5
ETFs have to hold a certain number of shares in a TASE listed security that is based off the market cap of that security. The MNKD sell of 14M shares was performed at a price set at 97% of today's TASE close. ETFs are still obligated to acquire the remaining set of shares, which will be or has been performed by purchases on the open market. It is very likely that the large purchases starting around 10:15 EST today were from those funds purchasing at a price less than what they would have paid for MNKD-direct shares or what they may have to pay tomorrow. The current holdings of the ETFs are unknown, but what me said above is correct. They are obligated to hold somewhere around $110M in shares at the current price.
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Post by kc on Nov 12, 2015 17:07:02 GMT -5
We'll have to see how this plays out, but it may turn out to be a lot less dilutive to shareholders. Does answer my question as to who the mystery buyer was between 10:15 and 10:30 today. Looks like it was the etfs. If they take most of those shares out of circulation it should help the stock price. Maybe other ETF funds who are not based in Israel are also buying
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Post by jeremg on Nov 12, 2015 17:07:25 GMT -5
Okay, I'm confused. Do the ETFs have to purchase a certain amount of shares or are they already done with it and the amount reported of 13mil+ it? The ETFs have to purchase a certain amount based on current value for proper market weighing. So they chose to purchase 13mil through the offering and will be purchasing the rest on the open market (not through MNKD's offering). They have until Sunday to purchase as many shares as the need to purchase on the open market. This will conceivably benefit the PPS but only raised $33mil for MNKD.
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Post by boytroy88 on Nov 12, 2015 17:10:24 GMT -5
ETFs have to hold a certain number of shares in a TASE listed security that is based off the market cap of that security. The MNKD sell of 14M shares was performed at a price set at 97% of today's TASE close. ETFs are still obligated to acquire the remaining set of shares, which will be or has been performed by purchases on the open market. It is very likely that the large purchases starting around 10:15 EST today were from those funds purchasing at a price less than what they would have paid for MNKD-direct shares or what they may have to pay tomorrow. The current holdings of the ETFs are unknown, but what me said above is correct. They are obligated to hold somewhere around $110M in shares at the current price. Great! Thanks for clearing that up! So there's a decent chance that the SP will go up a little tomorrow. So after that do most think the price will come down some?
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Post by bill on Nov 12, 2015 17:11:55 GMT -5
I think you and many other posters have a very wrong idea about those 50 million shares. As far as I can tell, the 50 million was a maximum number that had no bearing whatsoever with how many shares the TASE indices needed to buy based on MNKD's market cap. I estimated about 25 - 30 million shares need to be purchased by Sunday, not 50 million. If anyone is so inclined you can do your own math using TASE indices data. If I'm correct, the TASE indices only need to purchase 17 million shares by Sunday and my guess is more than half, and possibly most of it has already been purchased between yesterday and today. That calculation of the value (not number of shares) of MNKD shares ETFs needed to purchase has already been calculated by TASE and resulted in the need for $107 million USD of MNKD shares at the purchase price of $2.61 USD per share, or 41 million shares needed by the ETFs. With almost 14 million acquired directly from MNKD, that means approximately 27 million additional shares need to be/have already been acquired by 11/15/2015. I'll defer to your assertion. 27 million is much better than 17 million or less . I doubt they've acquired 27 million shares on the open market yesterday and today in spite of the spike in share price--unless the shorts created millions of naked counterfeit shares. The share price doubled in June when the shorts covered about 9 million shares. My best guess is that the TASE indices will be doing some additional buying on the NASDAQ tomorrow while the TASE is closed--assuming they're allowed to do that.
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Post by hankscorpio7 on Nov 12, 2015 17:20:28 GMT -5
As someone else stated, it seemed bizarre at the time that they'd pay so much debt with cash if money was an issue. Just wish things weren't so unnecessarily secretive. Maybe we'll find out, but how does it benefit them to keep a deal quiet? They probably can't name the partner or perhaps don't want to give false hope if it ends up dissolving but why not even throw out a bone and tell us "there is a potential deal that, if it closes, will be announced soon." What would be the harm in that? Is that against the rules, or would that be considered pumping the stock? This whole ordeal was bizarre. Is it possible MNKD didn't need the funds, the deal was in place to guarantee the TASE indexes wouldn't have to chase the market for 40-50m shares? They bought the shares they wanted and took the restricted ones for what else they needed. It would have been even more unfavorable in Israel if this deal wasn't in place since our float has rarely been above 10m before all this. Either MNKD was in dire straits paying cash for those notes or they aren't concerned about cash or management has no clue. Maybe this was a huge short trap. Very confusing message from management- we won't dilute, we knew SNY plan, we are disappointed, we will pay cash even though we have little cash, we will issue shares for cash.. Is the complete lack of intelligence proof of a higher intelligence? With the amount of shares management has, their silence is actually comforting.
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Post by babaoriley on Nov 12, 2015 17:31:54 GMT -5
Okay, I'm confused. Do the ETFs have to purchase a certain amount of shares or are they already done with it and the amount reported of 13mil+ it? The ETFs have to purchase a certain amount based on current value for proper market weighing. So they chose to purchase 13mil through the offering and will be purchasing the rest on the open market (not through MNKD's offering). They have until Sunday to purchase as many shares as the need to purchase on the open market. This will conceivably benefit the PPS but only raised $33mil for MNKD. If the share price is helped by the buying, then MNKD can sell some shares with the ATM in place to raise the money they need at a much better price than $2.25 or so a share. It remains to be seen after today's gains that we're going anywhere great tomorrow, but it sure is interesting.
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Post by babaoriley on Nov 12, 2015 17:34:03 GMT -5
As someone else stated, it seemed bizarre at the time that they'd pay so much debt with cash if money was an issue. Just wish things weren't so unnecessarily secretive. Maybe we'll find out, but how does it benefit them to keep a deal quiet? They probably can't name the partner or perhaps don't want to give false hope if it ends up dissolving but why not even throw out a bone and tell us "there is a potential deal that, if it closes, will be announced soon." What would be the harm in that? Is that against the rules, or would that be considered pumping the stock? This whole ordeal was bizarre. Is it possible MNKD didn't need the funds, the deal was in place to guarantee the TASE indexes wouldn't have to chase the market for 40-50m shares? They bought the shares they wanted and took the restricted ones for what else they needed. It would have been even more unfavorable in Israel if this deal wasn't in place since our float has rarely been above 10m before all this. Either MNKD was in dire straits paying cash for those notes or they aren't concerned about cash or management has no clue. Maybe this was a huge short trap. Very confusing message from management- we won't dilute, we knew SNY plan, we are disappointed, we will pay cash even though we have little cash, we will issue shares for cash.. Is the complete lack of intelligence proof of a higher intelligence? With the amount of shares management has, their silence is actually comforting. Hank, all this who is smart who is not, how smart, it's difficult. And the reason it's difficult is that people are working with incomplete knowledge, and non-management (like us), are burdened with not only incomplete knowledge, but varying amounts of knowledge. So naturally, what makes sense to one, does not to another.
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Post by cretin11 on Nov 12, 2015 17:42:28 GMT -5
ETFs have to hold a certain number of shares in a TASE listed security that is based off the market cap of that security. The MNKD sell of 14M shares was performed at a price set at 97% of today's TASE close. ETFs are still obligated to acquire the remaining set of shares, which will be or has been performed by purchases on the open market. It is very likely that the large purchases starting around 10:15 EST today were from those funds purchasing at a price less than what they would have paid for MNKD-direct shares or what they may have to pay tomorrow. The current holdings of the ETFs are unknown, but what me said above is correct. They are obligated to hold somewhere around $110M in shares at the current price. Great! Thanks for clearing that up! So there's a decent chance that the SP will go up a little tomorrow. So after that do most think the price will come down some? You have to be a premium member of this message board in order to get that type of classified info.
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Post by irrationalexubera on Nov 12, 2015 18:11:47 GMT -5
It will be interesting to see today's (Thursday's) short volume. It may give us some idea about how much shorting was being done to keep the share price in line. If the TASE indices were buying heavily I would have expected the share price to go much higher than the 18.5% we saw today since we saw a doubling of share price back in June when about 9 million shares were covered. OTOH, the shorts seem to be very adept at hiding high volumes of naked counterfeit shares. I have no idea what limits they may be operating under. 11/11/15 short volume was about 41%. waiting to see what today's was. shortanalytics.com/getshortchart.php?tsymbol=mnkd
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Post by jeremg on Nov 12, 2015 18:31:17 GMT -5
Great! Thanks for clearing that up! So there's a decent chance that the SP will go up a little tomorrow. So after that do most think the price will come down some? You have to be a premium member of this message board in order to get that type of classified info. I heard over on YMB that once you hit three stars here you get a few minutes with the board crystal ball, that's why I finally took the plunge and created an account.
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