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Post by chuck on Nov 16, 2015 14:01:39 GMT -5
Debt financing is pretty much off the table now. They were barely able to refinance a small amount of converts a few months ago. The Al Mann line of credit is off-market terms. Mnkd needs to stand on its own two feet. In other words, relying on non-market financing from a shareholder is really not a sustainable way forward. Really, their only option is equity. However, raising hundreds of millions is going to be difficult. Not sure anyone would underwrite such a huge offering as I suspect demand is not strong given the deteriorating business outlook. Maybe they could get it done with a big discount to market, although I doubt it. Even so, I suspect shareholders would not be satisfied with the pricing terms. Most concerning would be the message it would send about near term expectations of script growth and afrezza profits (or lack thereof). No offense, but this financing strategy is not very well thought out.
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Post by silentknight on Nov 16, 2015 14:07:46 GMT -5
I applaud you for writing to CFO, but what do you think he'll be able to tell you that will change anything? He legally can not get into details of what is going on and you already know that. The company is in an awkward position right now. The best thing it can do is show it can move its technosphere program forward with a new drug candidate and partner. But does anyone think that is going to happen by the end of the year? I don't. I do not expect to hear much from Matt. But an email acknowledgment from him saying that he received the email and are taking actions to address the financing needs will be great. I understand he probably can not disclose any details, that is fine. My main objective for writing the email is to persuade them that they have been too short-term oriented in arranging financing in the last several quarters. This has to change.
We have to take actions to take the rumors about bankruptcy off the table. With such rumors being recycled daily by the street.com, fool.com, etc., those rumors, while not true, are not good to the morale of the employees, the confidence of the shareholders and investors, and the image of Mannkind to the users of Afrezza and potential partners of TS applications.
If we look back over the last several years, Mannkind has never had cash balance over $200 million since 2008, with most quarters the cash balance was actually below $100 million. This is not good financial planning. In 2014, we had Adcom meeting (positive), FDA approval (positive), and announcement of major partnership with Sanofi (positive) and PPS in double digits. In beginning of 2015, we had formal launch of Afrezza (positive). In June of 2015, we had a great analyst report that drove the PPS from $3 to $7 in a few weeks. And yet, no additional capital was raised on any of those occasions. Did management think Mannkind will not need any additional cash in the coming years?And then, most recently, we saw Mannkind's press release that our cash balance was reduced to $32.9 million, without any accompanying update on back-up financing. And they left the press release out there for a whole trading day (waiting to be attached by shorts) by scheduling the conference call in the afternoon after the market! I certainly hope Mannkind can first raise some capital via a new TS partnership. But they have to act quickly. As another member have posted, on a day when the major indexes are up more than 0.5%, we are still down 7%. At this point, the waiting game will hurt Mannkind more and more. Therefore, I think management needs to take some decisive action right now. How about increasing Mann Group's loan facility by just $50 million (instead of by $70 million to $100 million as I suggested earlier)? That still sends a message and buys some time for Mannkind to arrange for other financing. Management might be bound by confidentiality agreements when it comes to the Afrezza strategy and SNYs plan to market it, but SNY has nothing to do with our terrible financial position currently. I can accept the deafening silence from management on what they're doing to improve sales if they can't speak on it but the bad decisions that the management team has made recently (as described in your post) are directly to blame for all the hit pieces that you're seeing now from financial blogs and the king of libel himself, AF. Dilution may be necessary, but it's the fault of management for doing it poorly. As you stated, if we had sold shares last year before the stock began to hemorrhage almost all of it's value and MNKD was currently sitting on sufficient reserves to fund operations as well as any potential TS candidates in the pipeline, you could at least remove that ammunition from those attacking the company and the stock. Matt complains openly on the CC about the shorts and encourages retail investors not to lend their shares, but fails to recognize that the precarious situation that MNKD finds itself in currently is partly of his own making. The shorts are a symptom of the culmination of (i) poor sales, (ii) a terrible balance sheet, and (iii) lack of confidence in management. Hakan and Matt may not be able to do much about the first one, but they certainly have direct control over points (ii) and (iii). We should expect better as investors.
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Post by kball on Nov 16, 2015 14:11:24 GMT -5
Mannkind management must consider themselves so lucky to have all of our opinions and suggestions for free.
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Post by compound26 on Nov 16, 2015 14:13:55 GMT -5
Debt financing is pretty much off the table now. They were barely able to refinance a small amount of converts a few months ago. The Al Mann line of credit is off-market terms. Mnkd needs to stand on its own two feet. In other words, relying on non-market financing from a shareholder is really not a sustainable way forward. Really, their only option is equity. However, raising hundreds of millions is going to be difficult. Not sure anyone would underwrite such a huge offering as I suspect demand is not strong given the deteriorating business outlook. Maybe they could get it done with a big discount to market, although I doubt it. Even so, I suspect shareholders would not be satisfied with the pricing terms. Most concerning would be the message it would send about near term expectations of script growth and afrezza profits (or lack thereof). No offense, but this financing strategy is not very well thought out. Agree it is not easy for Mannkind to raise funds right now after we have missed so many good opportunities in the last several quarters. See what Exact Sciences Corporation has recently done with their capital raises. Jul 21, 2015 Previous Release | Next Release PDF Add to Briefcase Exact Sciences Announces Pricing of Public Offering of Common Stock MADISON, Wis.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Exact Sciences Corporation (NASDAQ: EXAS) today announced that Jefferies LLC and Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated, the underwriters of the Company's previously announced public offering of 7,000,000 shares of common stock, are reoffering the shares to the public at an initial price of $25.50 per share. The Company has also granted the underwriters an option to purchase up to 1,050,000 of additional shares. The offering is expected to close on or about July 24, 2015, subject to customary closing conditions. Dec 16, 2014 Previous Release | Next Release PDF Add to Briefcase Exact Sciences Announces Pricing of Public Offering of Common Stock MADISON, Wis.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Exact Sciences Corporation (NASDAQ: EXAS) today announced the pricing of the public o ffering of 4,000,000 common shares previously sold to Jefferies LLC and Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated, as underwriters of the offering. The common shares will be sold at a public offering price of $25.75 per share. The Company has also granted the underwriters an option to purchase up to 600,000 additional shares. The offering is expected to close on or about December 19, 2014, subject to customary closing conditions. 11 million shares at $25.50/25.75. Now they are also in a tough position to raise funds due to not so great ramp up of Cologuard. But they took advantage of the good opportunities to raise $280 million plus funds. So they can wait for another good time to raise funds within the next two years with $343 million in their bank account. Tough or unpopular as it may be, Mannkind needs to do something to take the bankruptcy talks/rumors off the table.
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Post by mindovermatter on Nov 16, 2015 14:27:46 GMT -5
Debt financing is pretty much off the table now. They were barely able to refinance a small amount of converts a few months ago. The Al Mann line of credit is off-market terms. Mnkd needs to stand on its own two feet. In other words, relying on non-market financing from a shareholder is really not a sustainable way forward. Really, their only option is equity. However, raising hundreds of millions is going to be difficult. Not sure anyone would underwrite such a huge offering as I suspect demand is not strong given the deteriorating business outlook. Maybe they could get it done with a big discount to market, although I doubt it. Even so, I suspect shareholders would not be satisfied with the pricing terms. Most concerning would be the message it would send about near term expectations of script growth and afrezza profits (or lack thereof). No offense, but this financing strategy is not very well thought out. Agree it is not easy for Mannkind to raise funds right now after we have missed so many good opportunities in the last several quarters. See what Exact Sciences Corporation has recently done with their capital raises. Jul 21, 2015 Previous Release | Next Release PDF Add to Briefcase Exact Sciences Announces Pricing of Public Offering of Common Stock MADISON, Wis.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Exact Sciences Corporation (NASDAQ: EXAS) today announced that Jefferies LLC and Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated, the underwriters of the Company's previously announced public offering of 7,000,000 shares of common stock, are reoffering the shares to the public at an initial price of $25.50 per share. The Company has also granted the underwriters an option to purchase up to 1,050,000 of additional shares. The offering is expected to close on or about July 24, 2015, subject to customary closing conditions. Dec 16, 2014 Previous Release | Next Release PDF Add to Briefcase Exact Sciences Announces Pricing of Public Offering of Common Stock MADISON, Wis.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Exact Sciences Corporation (NASDAQ: EXAS) today announced the pricing of the public o ffering of 4,000,000 common shares previously sold to Jefferies LLC and Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated, as underwriters of the offering. The common shares will be sold at a public offering price of $25.75 per share. The Company has also granted the underwriters an option to purchase up to 600,000 additional shares. The offering is expected to close on or about December 19, 2014, subject to customary closing conditions. 11 million shares at $25.50/25.75. Now they are also in a tough position to raise funds due to not so great ramp up of Cologuard. But they took advantage of the good opportunities to raise $280 million plus funds. So they can wait for another good time to raise funds within the next two years with $343 million in their bank account. Tough or unpopular as it may be, Mannkind needs to do something to take the bankruptcy talks/rumors off the table. It never has been easy for Mannkind to raise money and why Al was the one to fund it to the tune of almost a billion of his own dollars and most likely will need to pony up again. Unless Afrezza breaks out and Mannkind starts to show nice profits, the company will not be able to raise money on Wall Street. It's also why it went the TASE route but that, most likely, was a one shot deal too.
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Post by mssciguy on Nov 16, 2015 14:33:56 GMT -5
See what Exact Sciences Corporation has recently done with their capital raises. Jul 21, 2015 Previous Release | Next Release PDF Add to Briefcase Exact Sciences Announces Pricing of Public Offering of Common Stock MADISON, Wis.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Exact Sciences Corporation (NASDAQ: EXAS) today announced that Jefferies LLC and Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated, the underwriters of the Company's previously announced public offering of 7,000,000 shares of common stock, are reoffering the shares to the public at an initial price of $25.50 per share. The Company has also granted the underwriters an option to purchase up to 1,050,000 of additional shares. The offering is expected to close on or about July 24, 2015, subject to customary closing conditions. Dec 16, 2014 Previous Release | Next Release PDF Add to Briefcase Exact Sciences Announces Pricing of Public Offering of Common Stock MADISON, Wis.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Exact Sciences Corporation (NASDAQ: EXAS) today announced the pricing of the public o ffering of 4,000,000 common shares previously sold to Jefferies LLC and Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated, as underwriters of the offering. The common shares will be sold at a public offering price of $25.75 per share. The Company has also granted the underwriters an option to purchase up to 600,000 additional shares. The offering is expected to close on or about December 19, 2014, subject to customary closing conditions. 11 million shares at $25.50/25.75. Now they are also in a tough position to raise funds due to not so great ramp up of Cologuard. But they took advantage of the good opportunities to raise $280 million plus funds. So they can wait for another good time to raise funds within the next two years with $343 million in their bank account. Tough or unpopular as it may be, Mannkind needs to do something to take the bankruptcy talks/rumors off the table. Baird is a solid and decent company. When GS is involved, people will get screwed, every time, guaranteed. Vampires!
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Post by longinvstr on Nov 16, 2015 16:35:43 GMT -5
I believe they (MNKD Mgt) have a better command of bio financing than would appear.
From their perspective: Why is it OK to just have enough financing to limp across the 2015 finish line? Why have they known this and not wisely used the ATM while we traded at much higher prices over the last 12-18 months?
Why did Hakan initially state that he expected a Techno partnership announcement in the next 45 days (before EOY) and, then, revise it to Q1 ’16?
Why do they seem unconcerned by the snail’s pace SNY has employed taking Afrezza to market? In fact, they state,~”We are quite pleased with our partner.”
Why no euro or other market approval process announcement(s)?
Why no expensive FDA label improvement study launches?
What would motivate a controller like GS to orchestrate so much short FUD while building a significant long position?
There is one scenario that explains it all, IMHO. There will be a Sanofi buys Afrezza deal announced in 1st Q of next year. Although a Techno partnership is as good as inked, they prefer to announce B after A above. For the last 18-24 months, they thought they had cash available on hand to bring her in on fumes to the announcement w/out dilution. As we know, they came in a hair shy. Since, Afrezza will be SNY’s baby, there is no urgency to market. To our future, the less they spend of “our” money now, all the better. SNY wants to better vet Afrezza and handicap their investments success by getting an extended test drive, confirming early adopter experience and getting their own insulin approved before A is announced. I can think of no better explanation for Al’s silence, the vacuum of information and the appearance of incompetent management.
You may now roll eyes and launch darts and rotten tomatoes
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Post by mssciguy on Nov 16, 2015 16:39:47 GMT -5
I believe they (MNKD Mgt) have a better command of bio financing than would appear. From their perspective: Why is it OK to just have enough financing to limp across the 2015 finish line? Why have they known this and not wisely used the ATM while we traded at much higher prices over the last 12-18 months? Why did Hakan initially state that he expected a Techno partnership announcement in the next 45 days (before EOY) and, then, revised to Q1 ’16? Why do they seem unconcerned by the snail’s pace SNY has employed taking Afrezza to market? In fact, they state,~”We are quite pleased with our partner.” Why no euro or other market approval process announcement(s)? Why no expensive FDA label improvement study launches? What would motivate a controller like GS to orchestrate so much short FUD while building a significant long position? There is one scenario that explains it all, IMHO. There will be a Sanofi buys Afrezza deal announced in 1st Q of next year. Although a Techno partnership is as good as inked, they prefer to announce B after A above. For the last 18-24 months, they thought they had cash available on hand to bring her in on fumes to the announcement w/out dilution. As we know, they came in a hair shy. Since, Afrezza will be SNY’s baby, there is no urgency to market. To our future, the less they spend of “our” money now, all the better. SNY wants to better vet Afrezza and handicap their investments success by getting an extended test drive, confirming early adopter experience and getting their own insulin approved before A is announced. I can think of no better explanation for Al’s silence, the vacuum of information and the appearance of incompetent management. You may now roll eyes and launch darts and rotten tomatoes Your argument passes the "what would Carl Icahn do?" test --- split the company in two, of course! Afrezza and "other Technosphere" .... would SIMPLIFY
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Post by Deleted on Nov 16, 2015 16:41:32 GMT -5
If what you say ends up becoming fact, then most shareholders will lose money IMO.
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Post by jeremg on Nov 16, 2015 16:48:25 GMT -5
longinvstr, I think your theory is possible though not plausible. I would love for you to be correct but I have to wonder, given the series of unfortunate events which have surrounded MNKD and Afrezza, what do you think SNY would be willing to pay that would be justifiable to their shareholders for Afrezza? Do you think SNY would be smart to pay more than MNKD's entire market cap currently (which I would consider to still be too low for Afrezza alone) or would you be happy accepting $0.50-1.50/share for Afrezza (really paying for just another 35% of Afrezza from SNY's current position)? The obvious answers to these questions make me think it is highly improbable that SNY would buy Afrezza alone as you propose. It's a very pleasant thought for us shareholders but I think that's about all it is.
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Post by jpg on Nov 16, 2015 17:05:25 GMT -5
Where is the diabetic community in all this?
Do they want to give innovarive new therapies a chance or do they let insurance companies and BPs decide it all? Sadly I think we know the answer to that...
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Post by kball on Nov 16, 2015 17:25:11 GMT -5
This feels possible...but then why wouldn't the rest of the market players know this and bid up the price within say...20% of any deal? I just can't get my head around it if true, but the pieces seem to fit otherwise I believe they (MNKD Mgt) have a better command of bio financing than would appear. From their perspective: Why is it OK to just have enough financing to limp across the 2015 finish line? Why have they known this and not wisely used the ATM while we traded at much higher prices over the last 12-18 months? Why did Hakan initially state that he expected a Techno partnership announcement in the next 45 days (before EOY) and, then, revise it to Q1 ’16? Why do they seem unconcerned by the snail’s pace SNY has employed taking Afrezza to market? In fact, they state,~”We are quite pleased with our partner.” Why no euro or other market approval process announcement(s)? Why no expensive FDA label improvement study launches? What would motivate a controller like GS to orchestrate so much short FUD while building a significant long position? There is one scenario that explains it all, IMHO. There will be a Sanofi buys Afrezza deal announced in 1st Q of next year. Although a Techno partnership is as good as inked, they prefer to announce B after A above. For the last 18-24 months, they thought they had cash available on hand to bring her in on fumes to the announcement w/out dilution. As we know, they came in a hair shy. Since, Afrezza will be SNY’s baby, there is no urgency to market. To our future, the less they spend of “our” money now, all the better. SNY wants to better vet Afrezza and handicap their investments success by getting an extended test drive, confirming early adopter experience and getting their own insulin approved before A is announced. I can think of no better explanation for Al’s silence, the vacuum of information and the appearance of incompetent management. You may now roll eyes and launch darts and rotten tomatoes
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Post by peppy on Nov 16, 2015 17:41:40 GMT -5
I believe they (MNKD Mgt) have a better command of bio financing than would appear. From their perspective: Why is it OK to just have enough financing to limp across the 2015 finish line? Why have they known this and not wisely used the ATM while we traded at much higher prices over the last 12-18 months? Why did Hakan initially state that he expected a Techno partnership announcement in the next 45 days (before EOY) and, then, revise it to Q1 ’16? Why do they seem unconcerned by the snail’s pace SNY has employed taking Afrezza to market? In fact, they state,~”We are quite pleased with our partner.” Why no euro or other market approval process announcement(s)? Why no expensive FDA label improvement study launches? What would motivate a controller like GS to orchestrate so much short FUD while building a significant long position? There is one scenario that explains it all, IMHO. There will be a Sanofi buys Afrezza deal announced in 1st Q of next year. Although a Techno partnership is as good as inked, they prefer to announce B after A above. For the last 18-24 months, they thought they had cash available on hand to bring her in on fumes to the announcement w/out dilution. As we know, they came in a hair shy. Since, Afrezza will be SNY’s baby, there is no urgency to market. To our future, the less they spend of “our” money now, all the better. SNY wants to better vet Afrezza and handicap their investments success by getting an extended test drive, confirming early adopter experience and getting their own insulin approved before A is announced. I can think of no better explanation for Al’s silence, the vacuum of information and the appearance of incompetent management. You may now roll eyes and launch darts and rotten tomatoes Quote; Why did Hakan initially state that he expected a Techno partnership announcement in the next 45 days (before EOY) and, then, revise it to Q1 ’16? Reply: he changed it to Q1 16 in the next sentence. I think he realized what he said. Quote; Why do they seem unconcerned by the snail’s pace SNY has employed taking Afrezza to market? reply; I do not think there is a thing MNKD can do about it. I do not think they want to bad mouth their partner. To my ears Hakan sounded desperate in the "let's talk quote." Quote; Why no euro or other market approval process announcement reply; the clamp study may be needed? Quote; Why no expensive FDA label improvement study launches reply; the money Quote: What would motivate a controller like GS to orchestrate so much short FUD while building a significant long position reply; A call position. A beginning a middle and an end. The rest of the quote.... reply: it would be very nice
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Post by mssciguy on Nov 16, 2015 17:51:28 GMT -5
Why do they seem unconcerned by the snail’s pace SNY has employed taking Afrezza to market? In fact, they state,~”We are quite pleased with our partner.” Why no euro or other market approval process announcement(s)? Why no expensive FDA label improvement study launches? What would motivate a controller like GS to orchestrate so much short FUD while building a significant long position? There is one scenario that explains it all, IMHO. There will be a Sanofi buys Afrezza deal announced in 1st Q of next year. Although a Techno partnership is as good as inked, they prefer to announce B after A above. For the last 18-24 months, they thought they had cash available on hand to bring her in on fumes to the announcement w/out dilution. As we know, they came in a hair shy. Since, Afrezza will be SNY’s baby, there is no urgency to market. To our future, the less they spend of “our” money now, all the better. SNY wants to better vet Afrezza and handicap their investments success by getting an extended test drive, confirming early adopter experience and getting their own insulin approved before A is announced. I can think of no better explanation for Al’s silence, the vacuum of information and the appearance of incompetent management. You may now roll eyes and launch darts and rotten tomatoes Quote; Why did Hakan initially state that he expected a Techno partnership announcement in the next 45 days (before EOY) and, then, revise it to Q1 ’16? Reply: he changed it to Q1 16 in the next sentence. I think he realized what he said. Quote; Why do they seem unconcerned by the snail’s pace SNY has employed taking Afrezza to market? reply; I do not think there is a thing MNKD can do about it. I do not think they want to bad mouth their partner. To my ears Hakan sounded desperate in the "let's talk quote." Quote; Why no euro or other market approval process announcement reply; the clamp study may be needed? Quote; Why no expensive FDA label improvement study launches reply; the money Quote: What would motivate a controller like GS to orchestrate so much short FUD while building a significant long position reply; A call position. A beginning a middle and an end. The rest of the quote.... reply: it would be very nice
Goldman has a growing long position in stock, but also a huge position in CALLS and a smaller position in PUTS GOLDMAN HAS NO ETHICAL GROUND FOR GIVING ANY GUIDANCE WHATSOVER.
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Post by mbseeking on Nov 16, 2015 19:13:19 GMT -5
Where is the diabetic community in all this? Do they want to give innovarive new therapies a chance or do they let insurance companies and BPs decide it all? Sadly I think we know the answer to that... Suspect a large majority of T1s are active, but only a very small percentage of T2s. For T1's its an acute disease that will kill you tomorrow. For T2's its a chronic one that will kill or maim you maybe sometime in the future. THat's why I think we've seen a lot of interest from T1s but only limited interest so far from T2s (innovators e.g. Spiro). To make this work in the much larger t2 market we need the traditional levers in marketing pulled..advertizing..t2s will simply not respond the way t1s have to. I've recently changed my opinion - we dont need to wait for formulary.. just get it advertized while MNKD is still trading. This will introduce Afrezza to the early adopters and and early majority. Believe we have misread thinking the market (mainly t2s) will be self aware like Sam Finta (T1). Mass advertising is now the biggest need. (affrezzauser.com wont work because there is no awareness.. you can confirm this with a google.com/trends search on Afrezza: it is tanking. This product will not become self viral - it needs advertising). Typical market: Innovators -> Early adoptors -> Early Majority -> Late Majority -> late adopters -> Laggards. (source wikipedia)
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