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Post by dreamboatcruise on Nov 20, 2015 18:01:48 GMT -5
jeremg... It is my understanding that often drug companies give price concessions in exchange for exlusivity on formularies. Given that you believe Sanofi could have already gotten on formulary if they wanted to merely on pricing, perhaps you can give insight into the following that would be necessary to have come to that conclusion. I've asked these before but had no one contribute any insight. 1) Do these exclusivity deals sometimes/usually/never mean that directly competing drugs must be relegated to restricted or off formulary, or simply tier 3? 2) What sort of terms are there with regard to prandials in these exclusivity deals? Might a prandial exclusivity deal be narrow and only cover drug with the same delivery mechanism and thus not cover Afrezza? 3) If Afrezza is currently locked out by exclusivity deals for Novolog and Humalog, how long do this deals typically last? I've always assumed that many on wall street, perhaps both long and short, know the answers to these questions and more. In hindsight I realize I have far too much invested in MNKD without having insight into this crucial aspect of Afrezza's success.
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Post by EveningOfTheDay on Nov 20, 2015 18:05:38 GMT -5
At least my cost basis is lower than his. As long as he sells at a profit for himself I'll be happy. Al selling at 7 or 8 is not something I would describe as happy, but since my cost basis is lower than his, I will consider this not a loss, but instead a pretty expensive lesson in terms of opportunity loss. I think at this point the only thing stopping someone from buying the company, or at least a controlling stake, is the fact that Al holds so many shares, otherwise I would not be surprised a hostile takeover would have been on the way already. As a matter of fact, most of the steps the company has taken lately seemed to be destined to discourage third parties from attempting this, from Al, refinancing so much of it with his own money, to the Tase listing, to the very airtight agreement with Sanofi. But who knows, maybe I have become too paranoid to asses things impartially. I still read the board, but I have to say I used to have a lot more fun when the issues discussed here were based on facts and scientific data. Sadly we have been relegated to try and guess, speculate and fantasize. The only unquestionable truth is that Afrezza is not selling the way Sanofi and Mannkind expected, about the rest we know very little. |
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Post by benyiju on Nov 20, 2015 18:06:21 GMT -5
That has always been my position no the matter too, but I have been wrong almost every step of the way. Perhaps things will turn around and I will decide that I was right after all, but it is hard to see the light at the end of the tunnel at this moment. I personally do not see any reason on why Sanofi would leave, but to me whether it leaves or lets Afrezza languish to the point of no return for Mannkind matters little. I often remind myself that the original plan did not call for introducing Afrezza in Europe till 2016 and Japan in 2017. I remind my self that it is possible that they seem to be pushing a bit harder now that they have realized the original plan was severely flawed. My concern is that it might still be too little too late, and that there will only be so much disappointment Sanofi will be able to take. They might realize they need Afrezza or not, but they have their own problems too, and it very well could be they decide the effort might not be worth it considering the difficulties of introduction. In any case, I really would like to hear from MNKD, in terms of how much money they have exactly, how many quarters that will last and what is their plan A, B and C if terms of financing. I also very much would like to hear that they have complete trust on Sanofi and that the partnership is going well and moving forward regardless of the results so far. It would not hurt at this point to nicely ask Sanofi to throw us a bone. They probably would not, but they might if it is Al himself who asks. The unwillingness to do so, unless they are very concerned about a blowback from their own shareholders, is rather unnerving. In essence, I realize that I am retracting many of my previous posts, but if I thought we were in a pretty bad situation last June, I now think the situation is as close to life or death as it can be; therefore is time to really be a lot more straightforward. That does not mean open, but simply straightforward. In my humble opinion Mannkind has been either, open or straightforward, and although I do understand the need for keeping things under wraps and quiet at times, the lack of clear statements from the company is what I find inexcusable. I think your point about Sanofi 'throwing us a bone' is a telling one. It wouldn't have taken much in their recent investor mtg CC, a single sentence about Afrezza would have sufficed. Yet we got nothing, unless you hunted through a long annex, and even that could reasonably been seen as being simply the bare minimum they would need to prove they are still meeting their contractual obligations to market Afrezza. I don't think they plan to abandon Afrezza in the short term (if only to hedge their bet and make sure it doesn't turn out to be a winner in someone else's hands), but they are clearly minimizing their investment in marketing and, long-term, I would guess they are keeping their options open. If we don't have impressive script numbers by next summer I'm pretty sure they will start laying the groundwork for cutting us loose. Adam F's shrill prognostications of January breakup seem unlikely, but short of having inside information, I think only a clown can 'guarantee 99.9%' that Sanofi won't back away by EOY2016. |
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Post by jeremg on Nov 20, 2015 18:07:11 GMT -5
jeremg... It is my understanding that often drug companies give price concessions in exchange for exlusivity on formularies. Given that you believe Sanofi could have already gotten on formulary if they wanted to merely on pricing, perhaps you can give insight into the following that would be necessary to have come to that conclusion. I've asked these before but had no one contribute any insight. 1) Do these exclusivity deals sometimes/usual/never mean that directly competing drugs must be relegated to restricted or off formulary, or simply tier 3? 2) What sort of terms are there with regard to prandials in these exclusivity deals? Might a prandial exclusivity deal be narrow and only cover drug with the same delivery mechanism and thus not cover Afrezza? 3) If Afrezza is currently locked out by exclusivity deals for Novolog and Humalog, how long do this deals typically last? I've always assumed that many on wall street, perhaps both long and short, know the answers to these questions and more. In hindsight I realize I have far too much invested in MNKD without having insight into this crucial aspect of Afrezza's success. I'm having a hard time trying to figure out whether you are actually asking for answers to these questions (which I do not have), or simply making a point? What has led you to believe SNY is working hard and committed to Afrezza, if this is your belief? Or am I just reading between the lines when I shouldn't? |
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Post by gamblerjag on Nov 20, 2015 18:06:52 GMT -5
where do these soft basher's come from? Al selling for 8 bucks/ 3.5 billion.. yeah ok... sure .. right.. less than two Hep C drugs that sold for 11 billion and 4 billion.. get a clue...
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Post by EveningOfTheDay on Nov 20, 2015 18:14:16 GMT -5
where do these soft basher's come from? Al selling for 8 or 3 billion.. yeah ok... sure .. right.. less than two Hep C drugs that sold for 11 billion and 4 billion.. get a clue... Agreed is unlikely, but Al is 90 years old. He might not be able to afford to wait long, other might have more time. At any rate, valuations of 60 to 100 sometimes circulating this board seem, right now, even more ridiculous than the possibility of Al selling at 8. |
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Post by jeremg on Nov 20, 2015 18:25:17 GMT -5
where do these soft basher's come from? Al selling for 8 bucks/ 3.5 billion.. yeah ok... sure .. right.. less than two Hep C drugs that sold for 11 billion and 4 billion.. get a clue... I don't think its "soft-bashing" to have your own price point at which your investment would meet personal goals. At $8/sh I would make 60% on my investment in a little more than a year; considering market performance over that time period, that would be a respectable return. You need to realize everyone has their own cost basis and timeline, doesn't make them a "soft-basher" because their investment goals don't line up with your own. I get the feeling you think you are holding lottery tickets instead of shares judging by your posts. |
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Post by thekindaguyiyam on Nov 20, 2015 18:28:46 GMT -5
I think your point about Sanofi 'throwing us a bone' is a telling one. It wouldn't have taken much in their recent investor mtg CC, a single sentence about Afrezza would have sufficed. Yet we got nothing, unless you hunted through a long annex, and even that could reasonably been seen as being simply the bare minimum they would need to prove they are still meeting their contractual obligations to market Afrezza. I don't think they plan to abandon Afrezza in the short term (if only to hedge their bet and make sure it doesn't turn out to be a winner in someone else's hands), but they are clearly minimizing their investment in marketing and, long-term, I would guess they are keeping their options open. If we don't have impressive script numbers by next summer I'm pretty sure they will start laying the groundwork for cutting us loose. Adam F's shrill prognostications of January breakup seem unlikely, but short of having inside information, I think only a clown can 'guarantee 99.9%' that Sanofi won't back away by EOY2016. EveningOfThe Day Like other's I came to the party too early. Insight is a bitch. Realizing it is much more difficult with fluctuating circumstances. I wish... but I'm in this for what it is (as it does exist) and for what potential it has. The only reason I haven't sold earlier was because I didn't know the territory. I didn't know; too much to tell. I suppose that makes me a dummy; but I can't navigate the past. You are someone I believe is genuine; and your disappointment legit. For me, it's a matter of confidence of the effectiveness of delivery of insulin (and of course the importance of acceptance of technosphere); the founder of the company with his success and skin in the game. I've seen organized crime take place in full view. The obstacles have been impressive. The volume speaks to the importance of how this is viewed. How many articles from the fool today? MNKD has been facing headwinds from the start. % paid out to loan and short interest means something. In my opinion; I believe in the science and I believe in the Management / Alfred Mann. From my point of view; I don't want to lose this much. Am I more content now with a year transpiring and a management shakeup; yes/ hate the share price and like knowing we are in the game. Have there been company errors along the way? Possibly... I don't know; it's conjecture without knowing the inside story. What we have is a lot of speculation and a lot of expectations rationalized by disappointment. Who do I blame? If we do; only ourselves (or at least that is what it is for me). I still believe and look forward to the bennys of greater share price and confidence when Alfred makes this happen. For the rest of us we can be armchair ceo's as much as we'd like to pretend which changes what? You may say I have rose colored glasses; but I would say that my expectations were my choice and my responsibility. I'm no dummy and far from the smartest among us. MNKD has to prove it's strength and I am a believer that it will. Then the eventuality of other applications marketed will take place; more countries will prescribe and greater volume will occur. And once again; this is not an endorsement for anyone to change their plans. I just know very clearly what mine is. I wish you luck in whatever choices you make. |
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Nov 20, 2015 18:48:20 GMT -5
jeremg... It is my understanding that often drug companies give price concessions in exchange for exlusivity on formularies. Given that you believe Sanofi could have already gotten on formulary if they wanted to merely on pricing, perhaps you can give insight into the following that would be necessary to have come to that conclusion. I've asked these before but had no one contribute any insight. 1) Do these exclusivity deals sometimes/usual/never mean that directly competing drugs must be relegated to restricted or off formulary, or simply tier 3? 2) What sort of terms are there with regard to prandials in these exclusivity deals? Might a prandial exclusivity deal be narrow and only cover drug with the same delivery mechanism and thus not cover Afrezza? 3) If Afrezza is currently locked out by exclusivity deals for Novolog and Humalog, how long do this deals typically last? I've always assumed that many on wall street, perhaps both long and short, know the answers to these questions and more. In hindsight I realize I have far too much invested in MNKD without having insight into this crucial aspect of Afrezza's success. I'm having a hard time trying to figure out whether you are actually asking for answers to these questions (which I do not have), or simply making a point? What has led you to believe SNY is working hard and committed to Afrezza, if this is your belief? Or am I just reading between the lines when I shouldn't? I genuinely would love for someone to have some insight to share, but I wasn't necessarily expecting you'd have it. So either, or both, of those. Given the difficulties of getting on formulary these days and lacking answers to the above questions, as well as others I cold probably come up with, I can't say I have any evidence that SNY is not working hard on it, since I can't formulate an educated expectation as to whether where we are now is an indicator of worse than could have been achieved outcome. So lacking such insight I have to fall back on my logical reasoning that 65% of Afrezza profits could be HUGE for SNY, so why would they not be doing what they could to assure its success. I suppose it is theoretically possible that 1) Al had the wool pulled over his eyes, 2) that SNY is willing to take the heat as an incompetent partner, or treacherous partner, 3) SNY willing to see their diabetes segment revenue sag more than would be required in next year or two by delaying Afrezza and 4) SNY perhaps damaging Afrezza's long term potential by planting seeds of doubt about viability (the ghost of Exubera) in doctor's minds... all to gain the incremental benefit of the other 35% of Afrezza. That scenario doesn't seem likely to me. However, I certainly have no evidence that they are working on it, short of perhaps the thin evidence that we know there are people working at SNY whose job titles would indicate this is what they are doing. |
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Post by saxcmann on Nov 20, 2015 18:53:07 GMT -5
I think your point about Sanofi 'throwing us a bone' is a telling one. It wouldn't have taken much in their recent investor mtg CC, a single sentence about Afrezza would have sufficed. Yet we got nothing, unless you hunted through a long annex, and even that could reasonably been seen as being simply the bare minimum they would need to prove they are still meeting their contractual obligations to market Afrezza. I don't think they plan to abandon Afrezza in the short term (if only to hedge their bet and make sure it doesn't turn out to be a winner in someone else's hands), but they are clearly minimizing their investment in marketing and, long-term, I would guess they are keeping their options open. If we don't have impressive script numbers by next summer I'm pretty sure they will start laying the groundwork for cutting us loose. Adam F's shrill prognostications of January breakup seem unlikely, but short of having inside information, I think only a clown can 'guarantee 99.9%' that Sanofi won't back away by EOY2016. I don't consider myself a clown so I'll say why I think Sanofi won't back out in January...I confirmed recently Sanofi will begin training doctors soon to speak on afrezza in 2016, therefore why would they be terminating there partnership with mannkind? Maybe "99% sure" comment was a little much but seems highly unlikely they'll cancel anytime soon. |
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Post by mssciguy on Nov 20, 2015 19:01:17 GMT -5
dreamboatcruise All that I can say is the insurance industry is doing GREAT these days. Why? Because they are putting profitability first and have the Obamacare bump to the whole medical industry figured out (for the most part). By now, enough data has streamed into insurance industry computers, not to mention, into endocrinologist's observations and sharing, regarding superior health outcomes due to Afrezza that we should see a big uptick in coverage. Seriously, if a $12,000 cholesterol treatment can get covered, Afrezza will get covered. That's my story and I'm sticking to it. Trust me on this: Until I put a lot of money into this stock early in this year, I was doing so good daytrading ETFs... now the money is captive for a long haul. I'll stick with it, and in fact think that everyone who has worked at MNKD deserves applause for sticking in there during some scary times ("crime scene" was used as a description of the stock price action due to hit pieces--- thanks for that..)
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Post by jeremg on Nov 20, 2015 19:05:03 GMT -5
dreamboatcruise, just for clarification, so I don't look like a tin foil hat wearing conspiracy theorist, I was much less inclined to believe SNY may not be committed before the latest news hit about SNY slow-rolling [sandbagging] Genzyme. I think we live in a corrupt corporate world where this does happen and this whistleblower news proves that it is reality as opposed to conspiracy. I wish I had an answer to your insurance questions; I may be more inclined to believe SNY is also a victim to an incredibly difficult to navigate insurance system if I truly understood the system itself. From where I currently sit I can only see SNY as a bad player and [in]active participant in MNKD's current plight and the lack of evidence to the contrary only bolsters this belief. Edit: No offense mssciguy, I just noticed what your avatar is supposed to be 
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Nov 20, 2015 19:09:13 GMT -5
mssciguy... My working thesis is exactly that. I think SNY is a savvy enough player in diabetes space to know what to do to get Afrezza on formulary based on its scientific merits and ultimate cost effectiveness compared with cost of elevated A1c and hypos. I'm not as confident that MNKD was fully aware of what it would take to get on formulary and whether they structured the deal in a way that assures their financial success based on the necessary timeline for Afrezza success. When that big uptick comes is something I feel I lack crucial insight to be able to predict. For instance, I don't have insight into whether exclusivity deals with Novolog and Humalog currently prohibit Afrezza from being added to some/many formularies and if so how long those would last.
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Post by EveningOfTheDay on Nov 20, 2015 19:12:34 GMT -5
I think your point about Sanofi 'throwing us a bone' is a telling one. It wouldn't have taken much in their recent investor mtg CC, a single sentence about Afrezza would have sufficed. Yet we got nothing, unless you hunted through a long annex, and even that could reasonably been seen as being simply the bare minimum they would need to prove they are still meeting their contractual obligations to market Afrezza. I don't think they plan to abandon Afrezza in the short term (if only to hedge their bet and make sure it doesn't turn out to be a winner in someone else's hands), but they are clearly minimizing their investment in marketing and, long-term, I would guess they are keeping their options open. If we don't have impressive script numbers by next summer I'm pretty sure they will start laying the groundwork for cutting us loose. Adam F's shrill prognostications of January breakup seem unlikely, but short of having inside information, I think only a clown can 'guarantee 99.9%' that Sanofi won't back away by EOY2016. I have often maintained, and still do, that Sanofi has no obligations towards MNKDs shareholders, and considering they have plenty of problems of their own, are unlikely to give us much thought. However, if they actually saw MNKD as a valuable partner, I could see them publicly supporting MNKD if our management would ask for it. The fact that they don't could mean nothing, but it also could mean that, for the time being, we are fairly unimportant to them. Considering how Afrezza is doing, disregarding who's fault it is, I am not too surprised if this is the case. |
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Post by benyiju on Nov 20, 2015 19:16:15 GMT -5
I think your point about Sanofi 'throwing us a bone' is a telling one. It wouldn't have taken much in their recent investor mtg CC, a single sentence about Afrezza would have sufficed. Yet we got nothing, unless you hunted through a long annex, and even that could reasonably been seen as being simply the bare minimum they would need to prove they are still meeting their contractual obligations to market Afrezza. I don't think they plan to abandon Afrezza in the short term (if only to hedge their bet and make sure it doesn't turn out to be a winner in someone else's hands), but they are clearly minimizing their investment in marketing and, long-term, I would guess they are keeping their options open. If we don't have impressive script numbers by next summer I'm pretty sure they will start laying the groundwork for cutting us loose. Adam F's shrill prognostications of January breakup seem unlikely, but short of having inside information, I think only a clown can 'guarantee 99.9%' that Sanofi won't back away by EOY2016. Like other's I came to the party too early. Insight is a bitch. Realizing it is much more difficult with fluctuating circumstances. I wish... but I'm in this for what it is (as it does exist) and for what potential it has. The only reason I haven't sold earlier was because I didn't know the territory. I didn't know; too much to tell. I suppose that makes me a dummy; but I can't navigate the past. You are someone I believe is genuine; and your disappointment legit. For me, it's a matter of confidence of the effectiveness of delivery of insulin (and of course the importance of acceptance of technosphere); the founder of the company with his success and skin in the game. I've seen organized crime take place in full view. The obstacles have been impressive. The volume speaks to the importance of how this is viewed. How many articles from the fool today? MNKD has been facing headwinds from the start. % paid out to loan and short interest means something. In my opinion; I believe in the science and I believe in the Management / Alfred Mann. From my point of view; I don't want to lose this much. Am I more content now with a year transpiring and a management shakeup; yes. Have there been company errors along the way? Possibly... I don't know; it's conjecture without knowing the inside story. What we have is a lot of speculation and a lot of expectations rationalized by disappointment. Who do I blame? If we do; only ourselves (or at least that is what it is for me). I still believe and look forward to the bennys of greater share price and confidence when Alfred makes this happen. For the rest of us we can be armchair ceo's as much aw we'd like to pretend which changes what? You may say I have rose colored glasses; but I would say that my expectations were my choice and my responsibility. I'm no dummy and far from the smartest among us. Never have told anyone to buy. I have revealed when I have once or twice. With the blood in the street confidence I averaged down a little. No biggie. Didn't change my outlook for what I think will be success for this company and not in a marginal way. MNKD has to prove it's strength and I am a believer that it will. Then the eventuality of other applications will take place; more countries will prescribe and greater volume will occur. And once again; this is not an endorsement for anyone to change their plans. I just know very clearly what mine is. I wish you luck in whatever choices you make. I think being in MNKD has involved a steep learning curve for all of us. We've all misjudged, or at least mistimed, MNKD's potential. I myself still think it has considerable potential (though not in fantasyland $60 range <seriously, Suebee?>), but it seems foolish to not be at least mildly suspicious of SNY's intentions and I think anyone who imagines MNKD share price reaching much of this potential in the short term is, well, unlikely to have their wonderful dream come true. At this point I'm sticking with MNKD, and might even add next week if (when?) SP craters again, but I'm now also thinking seriously about instead pulling out for a month in December for tax loss harvesting purposes (the one possible sure-thing silver lining I can see MNKD providing this year!). I hadn't even been considering tax loss harvesting MNKD because I had long thought it would start taking off late 2015/early 2016, but now seems unlikely. Btw, anyone who is planning to do this, or has some thoughts about this, please let me know! All this to say, I don't think you're dumb (or any dumber than the rest of us), however I do think that we should all be spending more time asking tough questions about what the hell is going on with this company and its partners. And less boosterism. It's really gotten ridiculous of late. Our discussions here have no effect on SP. Magical thinking won't make MNKD a winner, nor will any amount of StockTwits style cheerleading. |
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