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Post by mssciguy on Nov 20, 2015 19:16:26 GMT -5
dreamboatcruise, if this helps at all, I did see some sensible commentary (maybe in the Griffin update to "hold" -- very sensible) that the big pharmas like Lilly cut deals for discount rates over the past year to keep market share, not to say that this was to exclude Afrezza. Will this be something that was temporary, a desperation move to keep market share, will Sanofi adjust the price of Afrezza to compete? Don't know.... If only the Griffin author was a participant on this board, he seems to have some real insider knowledge... maybe we should invite him?
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Post by benyiju on Nov 20, 2015 19:19:45 GMT -5
I think your point about Sanofi 'throwing us a bone' is a telling one. It wouldn't have taken much in their recent investor mtg CC, a single sentence about Afrezza would have sufficed. Yet we got nothing, unless you hunted through a long annex, and even that could reasonably been seen as being simply the bare minimum they would need to prove they are still meeting their contractual obligations to market Afrezza. I don't think they plan to abandon Afrezza in the short term (if only to hedge their bet and make sure it doesn't turn out to be a winner in someone else's hands), but they are clearly minimizing their investment in marketing and, long-term, I would guess they are keeping their options open. If we don't have impressive script numbers by next summer I'm pretty sure they will start laying the groundwork for cutting us loose. Adam F's shrill prognostications of January breakup seem unlikely, but short of having inside information, I think only a clown can 'guarantee 99.9%' that Sanofi won't back away by EOY2016. I don't consider myself a clown so I'll say why I think Sanofi won't back out in January...I confirmed recently Sanofi will begin training doctors soon to speak on afrezza in 2016, therefore why would they be terminating there partnership with mannkind? Maybe "99% sure" comment was a little much but seems highly unlikely they'll cancel anytime soon. I don't think a Jan pullout is likely either, but if it does get to be more likely (say 2H2016) I'm sure Sanofi's Afrezza operations will still be acting like nothing has changed, lining up doctor presentations...until they announce they're done with us. That doesn't prove anything long term, all it means is that they're not leaving in the next 90 days.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Nov 20, 2015 19:20:57 GMT -5
dreamboatcruise, if this helps at all, I did see some sensible commentary (maybe in the Griffin update to "hold" -- very sensible) that the big pharmas like Lilly cut deals for discount rates over the past year to keep market share, not to say that this was to exclude Afrezza. Will this be something that was temporary, a desperation move to keep market share, will Sanofi adjust the price of Afrezza to compete? Don't know.... If only the Griffin author was a participant on this board, he seems to have some real insider knowledge... maybe we should invite him? I haven't read any of the more recent reports by analysts (full versions not summaries), but some of the earlier ones didn't really seem to address this crucial issue. I find it hard to believe that the smart money of wall street doesn't have insight into how these negotiations play out and how well SNY is doing behind the scenes currently.
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Post by robsacher on Nov 20, 2015 19:53:20 GMT -5
It would be interesting to see Regeneron and MannKind connected in some way: www.regeneron.comMichael Aberman, M.D. Senior Vice President, Strategy and Investor Relations Michael Aberman, M.D. joined Regeneron in 2010 as Vice President, Strategy and Investor Relations. Prior to joining Regeneron, Dr. Aberman was a Wall Street research analyst covering the biotechnology industry in positions at Credit Suisse and Morgan Stanley. Before moving to Wall Street, Dr. Aberman was Director of Business Development at Antigenics, Inc., an oncology-focused biotechnology company. Dr. Aberman received his medical degree from the University of Toronto, completed residency training in Internal Medicine at New York Presbyterian Hospital/Weill Cornell Medical Center, and received his M.B.A. from The Wharton School of Business. - See more at: www.regeneron.com/michael_aberman#sthash.CoXZF3n0.dpuf
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Post by mssciguy on Nov 20, 2015 19:58:27 GMT -5
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Post by Deleted on Nov 20, 2015 20:04:32 GMT -5
It would be interesting to see Regeneron and MannKind connected in some way: www.regeneron.comMichael Aberman, M.D. Senior Vice President, Strategy and Investor Relations Michael Aberman, M.D. joined Regeneron in 2010 as Vice President, Strategy and Investor Relations. Prior to joining Regeneron, Dr. Aberman was a Wall Street research analyst covering the biotechnology industry in positions at Credit Suisse and Morgan Stanley. Before moving to Wall Street, Dr. Aberman was Director of Business Development at Antigenics, Inc., an oncology-focused biotechnology company. Dr. Aberman received his medical degree from the University of Toronto, completed residency training in Internal Medicine at New York Presbyterian Hospital/Weill Cornell Medical Center, and received his M.B.A. from The Wharton School of Business. - See more at: www.regeneron.com/michael_aberman#sthash.CoXZF3n0.dpufLol every day is script day over here with all the hopes ... I am running out of popcorn and ink connecting the dots in dreams
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Post by pktrump on Nov 20, 2015 21:01:38 GMT -5
Victor Hugo, a great French poet and novelist, has some great quotes that resonate as I ponder the differences of technosphere-monomeric insulin and old-out-of-date RAAs, the current SNY marketing effort, and a great American Al Mann:
"No army can withstand the strength of an idea whose time has come."
"People do not lack strength they lack will."
EOM
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Post by traderdennis on Nov 20, 2015 21:07:27 GMT -5
dreamboatcruise All that I can say is the insurance industry is doing GREAT these days. Why? Because they are putting profitability first and have the Obamacare bump to the whole medical industry figured out (for the most part). By now, enough data has streamed into insurance industry computers, not to mention, into endocrinologist's observations and sharing, regarding superior health outcomes due to Afrezza that we should see a big uptick in coverage. Seriously, if a $12,000 cholesterol treatment can get covered, Afrezza will get covered. That's my story and I'm sticking to it. Trust me on this: Until I put a lot of money into this stock early in this year, I was doing so good daytrading ETFs... now the money is captive for a long haul. I'll stick with it, and in fact think that everyone who has worked at MNKD deserves applause for sticking in there during some scary times ("crime scene" was used as a description of the stock price action due to hit pieces--- thanks for that..) The problem with your statement is that I doubt there is anywhere near enough of a sample size for an insurance company to have a level of confidence in declaring Afrezza a cost saving success.
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Post by suebeeee1 on Nov 20, 2015 23:09:19 GMT -5
Is $60 a share really a fantasy benyiju? It may not even be a fantasy in 5 years should Afrezza take off and several more Technosphere deals be inked. Add one or two drugs coming to market on the Technosphere platform and $60/share might be quite low. However, the reality is that I am not inclined to sell at any point right now. As a person who knows first hand how good Afrezza is, it is only really a matter of time.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 20, 2015 23:40:29 GMT -5
It'll be sweet honey in the heart for me the day MNKD climbs over $50. That will happen and I have no problem waiting. Got plenty of popcorn ready for all the upcoming fireworks in the years ahead. Aloha.
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Post by benyiju on Nov 21, 2015 1:41:24 GMT -5
Is $60 a share really a fantasy benyiju? It may not even be a fantasy in 5 years should Afrezza take off and several more Technosphere deals be inked. Add one or two drugs coming to market on the Technosphere platform and $60/share might be quite low. However, the reality is that I am not inclined to sell at any point right now. As a person who knows first hand how good Afrezza is, it is only really a matter of time. What the hell, it's Friday night, give me some of what you're smoking! (I hope you're right Suebee!)
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Post by kball on Nov 21, 2015 7:54:29 GMT -5
It struck me as odd volume was only average on day of ceo announcement. A greater investment mystery i have never been involved in.
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Post by slugworth008 on Nov 21, 2015 8:45:09 GMT -5
@jereng I'm sitting on some dry powder and almost pulled the trigger but wanted to watch the days action. I really thought the PPS would drop into the 2.10-20 range. I suppose I've been beaten into expecting the pps to drop on "good news" with this stock. I would like to hope that 2.40-50 is the bottom. We'll see. Monday should be interesting. Monday should be interesting. Here's an interesting tidbit: www.cnbc.com/2015/11/20/sanofi-whistleblower-lawsuit-kicks-into-higher-gear.htmlLooks like the SNY legal team is gonna stay busy.
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Post by slugworth008 on Nov 21, 2015 8:57:23 GMT -5
@saxman I agree that SNY is committed to Afrezza in 2016 to what level we'll have to wait and see. Perhaps the light has finally turned and they realize the cash cow Afrezza can be wether or not Toejuo (SP) sells well or not. They could eclipse Toejuo revenue with Afrezza sales easily IMO. This is an interesting read: www.fiercebiotech.com/story/chris-viehbacher-explains-if-i-had-2-billion-invest/2015-06-23-0 (was posted on the YMB). I especially found the last several paragraphs interesting. ------------------------------------------ "My conclusion is that you can't have truly disruptive thinking inside big organizations," says Viehbacher. "Everything about the way a big organization is designed is about eliminating disruption." In Viehbacher's view, Big Pharma is still trying to act in the way the old movie studios once operated in Hollywood, with everyone from the stars to writers and stunt men all roped into one big group. Today, he says, movie studios move from project to project, and virtually everyone is a freelancer. In biopharma, he adds, value is found in specializing, and "fixed costs are your enemy." "Nobody should be ashamed that they don't manage absolutely everything," he says. "You're going to see our industry become more like the movie industry." And that's a trend that Gurnet, Chris Viehbacher and his solo investor Ernesto Bertarelli plan to play a big role in. -- John Carroll (email | Twitter) -----------------------------------------
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Post by benyiju on Nov 21, 2015 12:03:24 GMT -5
@jereng I'm sitting on some dry powder and almost pulled the trigger but wanted to watch the days action. I really thought the PPS would drop into the 2.10-20 range. I suppose I've been beaten into expecting the pps to drop on "good news" with this stock. I would like to hope that 2.40-50 is the bottom. We'll see. Monday should be interesting. Monday should be interesting. Here's an interesting tidbit: www.cnbc.com/2015/11/20/sanofi-whistleblower-lawsuit-kicks-into-higher-gear.htmlLooks like the SNY legal team is gonna stay busy. I've been considering buying more next week, too, but I'm guessing it's going a lot lower. I would wait and see what happens Monday-Tuesday at least. Often the reaction to MNKD's news released on Fridays (whether news like this CEO sacking or disappointing script numbers) comes first days of following week. Perhaps it gets digested/processed over weekends, or it's part of organized shorting strategies, I don't know. However, this time I'm more concerned about timing because I would guess we're also looking at some serious tax loss selling over the next few weeks. Actually, since yesterday I've also been thinking (paradoxically) about using one or two of my MNKD positions for tax loss harvesting. Lord knows I have plenty of MNKD potential tax loss! All this to say, be careful with timing a buy here. There could be surprise positive news that sends it in other direction, but new CEO isn't likely to be appointed before January at earliest (I would guess) and the nature of Hakan's farewell suggests there is no surprise good news in the offing.
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