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Post by mssciguy on Nov 21, 2015 18:59:07 GMT -5
MannKind did say that the price would be much closer (+10%) to RAA pens, but Sanofi has priced it much higher, maybe as a bargaining chip with insurance companies. It also turns out to be an imperfect comparison because of very different dosing protocols. That being said, Afrezza does not seem to be very expensive to manufacture and gross margins are more than ample. Let's hope that it's negotiation time with the insurance companies (who eat up ~25% of total medical costs, but that's another story...) for greater coverage. Then hopefully it's a simple matter of SNY doing aggressive ads and steering patients to the doctors with spirometers... I've been watching the diabetes space off and on for years, originally as a big pharma minion, and it sure was strange to see a peptide originating in gila monsters end up as an injectable. Not sure if our bodies were built to deal with that on a regular basis. For sure, though, our bodies were built to deal with insulin (monomer). Sanofi--- stop thinking so hard. It is not necessary to do what other bps are doing just because they're doing it. |
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Post by peppy on Nov 21, 2015 19:34:58 GMT -5
Peppy, I'm one of those who believes that gettiing the product back from a Sanofi could be a windfall. 1. We keep the $200 million that they gave us. 2. The $125 million start up expenses for the launch - 65% of which was paid for by Sanofi accrues to our benefit at no charge (except for the money we owe Sanofi) 3. Sanofi's 65% ownership interest in Afrezza accrues to Mannkind at no charge. 4. The $45 million that Mannkind owes to Sanofi doesn't have to repaid for 10 years. 5. Mannkind will have complete control over the distribution of Afrezza and can control there own destiny. If Mannkind needed to raise addition capital to support this windfall, I would jump off the fence and add to my position. Trend Payor negotiation ( formulary placements) and trials needed /mandated by FDA are important things that SNY is needed for. We all know MNKD had trouble even designing the trials..lol.. if the trials were originally designed for superior label, we wouldnt be in this position.. and market is not only US .. Rest of the world? MNKD has no resources/expertise outside of US. You talk about distribution control..thats Sanofi's. MNKD has no distrubtion , but its relatively small issue as it can be outsourced ( but $$$) so we can put the thought that MNKD can go solo to rest....when MNKD had to dilute 10% to get by the next qtr.. Be realistic - not emotional Does Teva have a distribution system? I am asking, |
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Post by jeremg on Nov 21, 2015 19:40:45 GMT -5
Crazy talk; over on the other thread, they are talking about sanofi dropping us. Tell me what is wrong with my thinking. I can see a case where, we want out of sanofi. we need to be priced right. the ground work done at some level and we do not have to pay them back for 10 years. We have the insulin and a contract. hmmm I go back and forth on this issue of SNY as a partner, it would seem at this point SNY is not doing right by us, whether by design or due to incompetence we likely will never know. If the partnership needed to end it would be best if they dropped us, but even if that were to be the case, what would happen to the PPS on the day that press release hit the interwebs? And more importantly, can we do it on our own if need be or do will we realistically have any leverage to sign a better (or equivalent) contract with another [honest] BP. I'm honestly not sure what would be best at this point, too many unknowns... |
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Post by suebeeee1 on Nov 21, 2015 19:46:07 GMT -5
It would be better for the stock price and for the company if they made the decision before SNY decided to drop us. They could hold a press conference and tell why they decided to terminate and what their plan was to go forward. Most shareholders and analysts may even buy in.
Now, whether or not MNKD can go forward without a partner now is a totally different question.
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Post by jeremg on Nov 21, 2015 19:50:11 GMT -5
It would be better for the stock price and for the company if they made the decision before SNY decided to drop us. They could hold a press conference and tell why they decided to terminate and what their plan was to go forward. Most shareholders and analysts may even buy in. Now, whether or not MNKD can go forward without a partner now is a totally different question. That would be disastrous contractually if we dropped them, we need them to drop us if it turns out they aren't that into Afrezza. The worst possible scenario is the ones where they don't drop us and things keep going the way they are. |
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Post by peppy on Nov 21, 2015 19:56:05 GMT -5
It would be better for the stock price and for the company if they made the decision before SNY decided to drop us. They could hold a press conference and tell why they decided to terminate and what their plan was to go forward. Most shareholders and analysts may even buy in. Now, whether or not MNKD can go forward without a partner now is a totally different question. Right. I know nothing about business. Could hope float; Al came back, the Israeli exchange, a Teva deal. we manufacture, they distribute. Priced $250 to $300. covered by insurance. Non-inferior. Cut out the middle man? Everyone is happy? Smiling happy diabetics?
I really know nothing about business. Tell me.
Added: (Hakan out, new man to be brought in and the patents have been filed in detail.)
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Post by rrtzmd on Nov 22, 2015 0:56:31 GMT -5
Probably best to try and compare cost per day. A Humalog quikpen contains 3 cc w each cc containing 100U of insulin, giving each pen 300U of insulin. Five pens -- 1500U -- cost $435 (per Goodrx). A typical type 1 rarely uses more than 2U per meal. Add on 2U required to prime the pen, and a type 1 would use -- typically -- 4U with each meal. Figure 3X a day, so 12U used per day. So 1500U provides 125 days of therapy. Cost per day is about $3.50. Comparison with afrezza is somewhat difficult since afrezza is dosed according to "cartridge." Afrezza requires one dose with a meal and may require an additional dose 1-2 hours after a meal, so figure 90 doses lasts at best 30 days, at worst 15 days. This does not take into account the increased dosing requirements with each meal compared to lispro that many users have been reporting. 90 doses of 4U cost about $300. So per day, the cost is between $10 and $20. Afrezza comes out costing 3-7 times as much as the humalog pen. And remember that does not include the higher dosing compared to lispro that many are reporting that afrezza needs. For a real world comparison, you can use Anthem's search engine: anthem estimatesAnthem does not cover afrezza, but still says costs $4,000 per year -- that's using 90 4U cartridges per month. Anthem also doesn't cover the humalog quikpen, but one quikpen used per month -- typical for most type 1s -- would cost $1,000 per year. |
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Post by southd44 on Nov 22, 2015 0:59:01 GMT -5
FYI - I work for a mail order pharmacy that does business with all 50 states and Puerto Rico/Virgin Islands. If any one would ever like to know numbers related to AWP, AAC, etc or copays or number of Rx's dispensed over specific time period versus another product, let me know. Some times I get bored at work and start doing random searches on products that interest me; that it is, when I am not day-dreaming about how awesome it would be if Afrezza had the numbers Lantus has had.
Also, my gf who is also a pharmacist at a retail pharmacy, was just visited by a Afrezza drug rep! THEY DO EXIST!!!
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Post by stevil on Nov 22, 2015 1:11:26 GMT -5
FYI - I work for a mail order pharmacy that does business with all 50 states and Puerto Rico/Virgin Islands. If any one would ever like to know numbers related to AWP, AAC, etc or copays or number of Rx's dispensed over specific time period versus another product, let me know. Some times I get bored at work and start doing random searches on products that interest me; that it is, when I am not day-dreaming about how awesome it would be if Afrezza had the numbers Lantus has had. Also, my gf who is also a pharmacist at a retail pharmacy, was just visited by a Afrezza drug rep! THEY DO EXIST!!! I'm sure you're aware of HIPAA laws, so just be careful if you go digging for information. |
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Post by southd44 on Nov 22, 2015 1:27:08 GMT -5
FYI - I work for a mail order pharmacy that does business with all 50 states and Puerto Rico/Virgin Islands. If any one would ever like to know numbers related to AWP, AAC, etc or copays or number of Rx's dispensed over specific time period versus another product, let me know. Some times I get bored at work and start doing random searches on products that interest me; that it is, when I am not day-dreaming about how awesome it would be if Afrezza had the numbers Lantus has had. Also, my gf who is also a pharmacist at a retail pharmacy, was just visited by a Afrezza drug rep! THEY DO EXIST!!! I'm sure you're aware of HIPAA laws, so just be careful if you go digging for information. No PHI of course, just general numbers. |
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Post by trenddiver on Nov 22, 2015 2:08:55 GMT -5
Peppy, I'm one of those who believes that gettiing the product back from a Sanofi could be a windfall. 1. We keep the $200 million that they gave us. 2. The $125 million start up expenses for the launch - 65% of which was paid for by Sanofi accrues to our benefit at no charge (except for the money we owe Sanofi) 3. Sanofi's 65% ownership interest in Afrezza accrues to Mannkind at no charge. 4. The $45 million that Mannkind owes to Sanofi doesn't have to repaid for 10 years. 5. Mannkind will have complete control over the distribution of Afrezza and can control there own destiny. If Mannkind needed to raise addition capital to support this windfall, I would jump off the fence and add to my position. Trend Payor negotiation ( formulary placements) and trials needed /mandated by FDA are important things that SNY is needed for. We all know MNKD had trouble even designing the trials..lol.. if the trials were originally designed for superior label, we wouldnt be in this position.. and market is not only US .. Rest of the world? MNKD has no resources/expertise outside of US. You talk about distribution control..thats Sanofi's. MNKD has no distrubtion , but its relatively small issue as it can be outsourced ( but $$$) so we can put the thought that MNKD can go solo to rest....when MNKD had to dilute 10% to get by the next qtr.. Be realistic - not emotional If I didn't know better, I'd swear you were Obama telling us that getting rid of Isis is just to tough to go it alone. I know that there are many challenges, but 100% of something is better than 35% of nothing. |
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Post by stevil on Nov 22, 2015 2:14:27 GMT -5
I'm sure you're aware of HIPAA laws, so just be careful if you go digging for information. No PHI of course, just general numbers. True, but even looking for Afrezza may pull up PHI on your screen, especially if you're being specific enough in your search to find co-pays. Sorry if I'm coming across as being babysitter but we had people get fired at the hospital for digging around without justification. Every key stroke on a computer is recorded nowadays so just be careful when you dig... |
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Post by jpg on Nov 22, 2015 2:32:23 GMT -5
No PHI of course, just general numbers. True, but even looking for Afrezza may pull up PHI on your screen, especially if you're being specific enough in your search to find co-pays. Sorry if I'm coming across as being babysitter but we had people get fired at the hospital for digging around without justification. Every key stroke on a computer is recorded nowadays so just be careful when you dig... What is this? Grade school? |
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Post by kball on Nov 22, 2015 7:58:00 GMT -5
Crazy talk; over on the other thread, they are talking about sanofi dropping us. Tell me what is wrong with my thinking. I can see a case where, we want out of sanofi. we need to be priced right. the ground work done at some level and we do not have to pay them back for 10 years. We have the insulin and a contract. hmmm I go back and forth on this issue of SNY as a partner, it would seem at this point SNY is not doing right by us, whether by design or due to incompetence we likely will never know. If the partnership needed to end it would be best if they dropped us, but even if that were to be the case, what would happen to the PPS on the day that press release hit the interwebs? And more importantly, can we do it on our own if need be or do will we realistically have any leverage to sign a better (or equivalent) contract with another [honest] BP. I'm honestly not sure what would be best at this point, too many unknowns... My thinking is that analysts are already giving this a relatively high probability and this 'may' be priced into the stock already around the $2-2.50 range. I can't see any way for Mannkind to go it alone without another experienced partner, and best case (notwithstanding a swift 180 by SNY) is a concurrent statement from SNY and MNKD of mutual desire to end partnership (avoiding legal battles) while Mannkind announces a more favorable contract with another powerful player in the space. And the clock starts all over again with hope and science and trials...long road |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 22, 2015 8:21:12 GMT -5
FYI - I work for a mail order pharmacy that does business with all 50 states and Puerto Rico/Virgin Islands. If any one would ever like to know numbers related to AWP, AAC, etc or copays or number of Rx's dispensed over specific time period versus another product, let me know. Some times I get bored at work and start doing random searches on products that interest me; that it is, when I am not day-dreaming about how awesome it would be if Afrezza had the numbers Lantus has had. Also, my gf who is also a pharmacist at a retail pharmacy, was just visited by a Afrezza drug rep! THEY DO EXIST!!! may be you can see the number of Rx's dispersed for Afrezza every week? - probably on monday for the past 7 days.. does your office work on weekends? ( i assume yes ) |
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