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Post by mssciguy on Nov 23, 2015 21:56:24 GMT -5
However, that being said, I am still thinking very seriously about adding this week or next if/when current malaise and tax loss selling drives SP down sub-$2. I still believe! Amen! You and Goldman Sachs and many of us... but but but... did Jason Karp cash in on his put options yet??? |
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Post by robsacher on Nov 23, 2015 22:14:24 GMT -5
Well, shorts have the company exactly where they have wanted it for quite a while, apparently out of options. To tell the truth, the more I learned about MNKD the more I felt there was a power play between Mann and other interests set on controlling the corporation or at least a big part of it. Mann is fairly mighty and he might have thought he had a chance to win in this game, but I can now, with some certainty level, can say that it appears the opposite side has the upper hand and therefore the interests behind it must be extremely well financed and connected. A part of me thinks that the best that could happen for long term investors is that Mann gives in to pressure and accommodates the interest of those involved in the game. I have a feeling that the sp would quickly jump considerably if this happened. Unfortunately or fortunately, depending on how you perceive the issue, I do not think Mann will give in, but then again he is in his 90s. His enemies have proven that they are willing to patiently wait for a long time. Not sure to what you are actually referring but I can assure you that there is not one chance in a million that Al will give up control of MannKind or throw in the towel on Afrezza or Technosphere. If institutional investors are continuing to add to their positions, I will do the same. I firmly suggest that investors do as the institutions do. I will be adding shares to my position. |
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Post by robsacher on Nov 23, 2015 22:18:18 GMT -5
When I started buying this stock last Spring I put a lot of weight on what seemed to be the conventional wisdom that many (if not most) doctors wait for a year after a drug is launched before they start prescribing it. There was a lot of discussion about this at the time and I have to wonder why there's no mention of it in all the doom and gloom posts on this board these days. Last Spring I was telling people that I expected Afrezza sales to take off sometime in the first quarter of 2016. Why has this possibility been written off by so many here? Just push your timeline ahead by six months to the second half of 2016. |
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Post by robsacher on Nov 23, 2015 22:20:54 GMT -5
Help me out here folks... It seems to me that MNKD's only got two chances to survive their current predicament; a TS license with substantial up-front funding or an aggressive move by the SEC to stop the illegal manipulation of MNKD's stock price. I know we all doubt that the latter is going to happen, so let's cross that off our list. I doubt MNKD can even sell the business to SNY anymore because SNY can see that MNKD doesn't have the cash to hang around long enough to ever see any Afrezza profits, i.e., MNKD is on a path to bankruptcy within 6 months. Why pay for something that you're pretty sure you'll get for free within the year? SNY can even accelerate Afrezza marketing and adoption at this point because the resulting prescriptions won't catch up with MNKD's debt before bankruptcy. That approach by SNY would eliminate any practical way for MNKD to claim they didn't use reasonable efforts to bring Afrezza to the marketplace. Give the previous situation there's no reason for SNY (or anyone else) to buy-in to MNKD; doesn't help SNY and only weakens the chance that MNKD will go bankrupt. MNKD's also unlikely to succeed in a public stock offering, even if you ignore that such an offering would increase the shares available for the shorts. The shorts would simply drive the stock price down again and eliminate MNKD's ability to raise a substantial amount of cash. I keep coming to the inevitable conclusion that's it's a TS license deal or bust. If that's true then we need to figure how likely that would be, how much cash it would raise, and when the licensing deal would conclude. Thoughts? Al will have to step in and lend MNKD more money. Don't forget that Al probably makes more money on his billion dollars in interest than MannKind spends to keep going next year. |
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Nov 23, 2015 22:22:55 GMT -5
When I started buying this stock last Spring I put a lot of weight on what seemed to be the conventional wisdom that many (if not most) doctors wait for a year after a drug is launched before they start prescribing it. There was a lot of discussion about this at the time and I have to wonder why there's no mention of it in all the doom and gloom posts on this board these days. Last Spring I was telling people that I expected Afrezza sales to take off sometime in the first quarter of 2016. Why has this possibility been written off by so many here? Just push your timeline ahead by six months to the second half of 2016. Seems like that would pose a liquidity problem for MNKD. If they haven't already used the ATM, as we get into 2016 without meaningful scrip improvements, the value of the ATM could continue to sink with share price. We may have only enough cash to barely get into second half of 2016 much less through it. |
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Post by robsacher on Nov 23, 2015 22:32:52 GMT -5
Al will have to step in and cover some operational costs for a year or so.
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Post by spiro on Nov 23, 2015 22:34:10 GMT -5
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Post by nylefty on Nov 23, 2015 22:56:32 GMT -5
I'm not sure how accurate or comprehensive the listings on formularylookup.com are since they don't even include my plan (a CVS/Caremark plan for GE retirees).
In any case, my plan requires prior authorization for Afrezza, but after that requirement was satisfied my cost (if I were diabetic) would only be $35 for a three month supply. And in my experience, it's not that difficult to satisfy the prior authorization requirement.
My plan requires PA for two of the three prescription drugs that I take and my doctor's office seems to have no problem filing the necessary paperwork.
It seems to me that any doctor who was satisfied that Afrezza would be the best option for a patient could get approval without having to put up too much of a fight.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Nov 23, 2015 23:30:31 GMT -5
Al will have to step in and cover some operational costs for a year or so. Perhaps taking the reins again will make that more likely. However, it's never a comfortable position when you're relying on Dad to bail you out, unless Dad is a total pushover. Al could always bail out the company, but not guaranteed to be on terms that would seem pleasant to all shareholders. |
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Post by thekindaguyiyam on Nov 23, 2015 23:41:54 GMT -5
Al will have to step in and cover some operational costs for a year or so. Perhaps taking the reins again will make that more likely. However, it's never a comfortable position when you're relying on Dad to bail you out, unless Dad is a total pushover. Al could always bail out the company, but not guaranteed to be on terms that would seem pleasant to all shareholders. it's a good investment for him to protect his own assets let alone his life's ambition. |
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Post by EveningOfTheDay on Nov 24, 2015 0:13:53 GMT -5
Not sure to what you are actually referring but I can assure you that there is not one chance in a million that Al will give up control of MannKind or throw in the towel on Afrezza or Technosphere. If institutional investors are continuing to add to their positions, I will do the same. I firmly suggest that investors do as the institutions do. I will be adding shares to my position. Sorry Robert, but the pace at which tutes have been adding has been snail pace, and so far has meant little. As to whether Al Mann will relinquish control of Mannkind, I am sure if it happens it will not be with his blessings, but despite of his very strong resistance. It is somewhat obvious that Mr. Mann underestimated the market or perhaps he has a very clear idea of how long it will take for Mannkind to succeed but so far it would seem not only that Mannkind might be quickly running out of money, but that the choices they have taken have insured that this happens faster. The real problem I seem to have this days is the lack of information coming form a company where its executives one day say one thing and the next something different, where the culture of over promising and under delivering seems to have taken control. As I said often lately the only reason I am still holding my shares is because Afrezza works and I think that either the current owners or someone else will make this work eventually, but at the same time I do not have delusions of the sp going to 50 or 60 anymore. Actually I will be happy if I walk away with enough money to have made this extremely expensive endeavor, in terms of opportunity loss, a fair trade. Sorry but the way the company has decided or not decided to communicate with its shareholders is as bad as it can be. They probably will not get sued, but they have certainly lost the trust of many long term investors that expected to be treated in a much more straightforward way. |
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Post by benyiju on Nov 24, 2015 0:32:16 GMT -5
Not sure to what you are actually referring but I can assure you that there is not one chance in a million that Al will give up control of MannKind or throw in the towel on Afrezza or Technosphere. If institutional investors are continuing to add to their positions, I will do the same. I firmly suggest that investors do as the institutions do. I will be adding shares to my position. Sorry Robert, but the pace at which totes have been adding has been snail pace, and so far has meant little. As to whether Al Mann will relinquish control of Mannkind, I am sure if it happens it will not be with his blessings, but despite of his very strong resistance. It is somewhat obvious that Mr. Mann underestimated the market or perhaps he has a very clear idea of how long it will take for Mannkind to succeed but so far it would seem not only that Mannkind might be quickly running out of money, but that the choices they have taken have insured that this happens faster. The real problem I seem to have this days is the lack of information coming form a company where its executives one day say one thing and the next something different, where the culture of overpraising and under delivering seems to have taken control. As I said often lately the only reason I am still holding my shares is because Afrezza works and I think that either the current owners or someone else will make this work eventually, but at the same time I do not have delusions of the sp going to 50 or 60 anymore. Actually I will be happy if I walk away with enough money to have made this extremely expensive endeavor, in terms of opportunity lost, a fair trade. Sorry but the way the company has decided or not decided to communicate with its shareholders is as bad as it can be. They probably will not get sued, but they have certainly lost the trust of many long term investors that expected to be treated in a much more straightforward way. Yeah, the institutional buying is a red herring. The information we have is dated, they could be selling now after the recent bungled financing moves. That would certainly help explain the SP being where it is. Re bad communication and lack of transparency, though, I don't find that unusual for a company with MNKD's profile. What I do find unusual (and completely inexcusable) is how worthless their IR is, such that the CFO is spending his (very expensive) time fielding emails and phone calls from us peon investors. How does that happen? |
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Post by benyiju on Nov 24, 2015 0:35:33 GMT -5
Also, if I'm not mistaken, institutional tax-related selling often comes earlier than the usual December tax loss harvesting by PIs (of which we will probably see a lot this year for MNKD). So, to the extent that some tutes are going that route, the next round of disclosures could be ugly.
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Post by trenddiver on Nov 24, 2015 0:36:53 GMT -5
If we were to see Matt bail, then I believe that would be the red herring we could/should use to make a pivotal investment decision. Right now, with Al back at the reigns, any number of things could be agreed to that would improve the current predicament. If Matt were to walk, that would definitely be reason to pause. If Matt were to resign, I'd back up the truck and buy, buy, buy. I personally hold Matt responsible for the horrible financial shape that the company is in. Trend |
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Post by trenddiver on Nov 24, 2015 0:41:09 GMT -5
Well, shorts have the company exactly where they have wanted it for quite a while, apparently out of options. To tell the truth, the more I learned about MNKD the more I felt there was a power play between Mann and other interests set on controlling the corporation or at least a big part of it. Mann is fairly mighty and he might have thought he had a chance to win in this game, but I can now, with some certainty level, can say that it appears the opposite side has the upper hand and therefore the interests behind it must be extremely well financed and connected. A part of me thinks that the best that could happen for long term investors is that Mann gives in to pressure and accommodates the interest of those involved in the game. I have a feeling that the sp would quickly jump considerably if this happened. Unfortunately or fortunately, depending on how you perceive the issue, I do not think Mann will give in, but then again he is in his 90s. His enemies have proven that they are willing to patiently wait for a long time. What are you talking about? What interest is he supposed to accommodate? Don't underestimate Al, he has huge firepower ($3 billion) he chooses to use it. |
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