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Post by rak5555 on Feb 12, 2014 15:54:49 GMT -5
It seems to me that MNKD is running dangerously (irresponsibly) close to running out of cash. If they wait to implement the ATM until after pdufa, it could be very dilutive. Even if they are reasonably sure of a partnership, I would be surprised if they went through pdufa w/o triggering ATM. This logic leads me to believe either a partnership is imminent or they will begin issuing through the ATM relatively soon. Maybe we'll get clue next week.
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Post by otherottawaguy on Feb 12, 2014 16:20:18 GMT -5
Rak: Been toying with this one myself. Think partnership will be announced post ADCOM and quite possibiliy after PUFDA. I am of the opinion that they have tapped the ATM and that is what we will hear at the quarterly, financing until after FDA decision date will then be assured. Really whats another 9M shares amongs friends (longs) and foes (shorty) on an outstanding balance of 420M(  ). Interesting post over on YMB states that they broke the pattern when announcing this call, by announcing it two weeks in advance, instead of the customary one week notice as was the norm. Still waiting for mid Mar to see the the ADCOM moves from a "Tentative" to a "Confirmed" date around 15-17 Mar, that will be the next date to watch after the 18th of Feb unless I have missed something else. The fireworks are being layed out, its going to be a true show to be remembered regardless of whether this thing goes sky high or blows up in the perverbial tubes. OOG |
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Post by liane on Feb 12, 2014 17:26:46 GMT -5
I have the feeling they have either tapped the ATM already or they know they will not need it. Either way, I expect we will hear on Tuesday. Waiting to tap the ATM any longer just makes no sense - too much uncertainty.
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Post by biotec on Feb 12, 2014 18:40:04 GMT -5
Been thinking the same. We cant afford another dilution. The ATM is not free money. We are running out of capital very quickly, Something has to give. So close to the finish line to be in this spot.Im long but if I had all my money on this I would think very hard what the next month 2 months will bring. The 380,000,000 shares outstanding should not be taking lightly.If no partner and FDA approval we are still in trouble. Thats why I think we are seeing a huge short interest. JMO
Bio
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Post by spiro on Feb 12, 2014 19:30:25 GMT -5
Rak, this is a tough one, but there is another option. If Al is confident that a partnership is almost a certainty after approval, I think it is possible that Al will extend his credit line to MNKD by another $100 million or so. The $50 million from the ATM will not get them very far. Al Mann needs to ante up one more time. It's the double blind this time, but Al is the dealer and he can deal from the bottom of the deck. Now if Al Mann folds and uses the ATM, that will make me a little more nervous than I already am.
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Post by babaoriley on Feb 12, 2014 22:50:20 GMT -5
I suppose we could raise a little money on the ATM in the next month or so, but if everyone is so sure of success, why do that before the success and higher price? Or before the partnership that has been in the making since Eve got Adam to take a bite of the apple? To me, raising money now through stock issuance is not the way to go.
I hope Spiro is correct regarding Al extending a small amount to tide us over till the partnership and approval. If we don't get approval, heck, what are we going to do with the money we would raise now with the ATM? Pay Al back a fraction of what he's loaned the company? I mean, with no approval, it's over, we definitely need to get sold for about .50/share to some large biotech which sees some value in Technosphere.
Look, we are going to be increasingly unsure of getting approval as time marches toward AdCom, it's human nature, and I'm guessing we're pretty much all human here. Maybe a couple of us will be absolutely certain and confident right until the FDA's gavel falls one way or the other, but not most of us.
About 100 years ago when I took the Bar exam, when I left it, I felt pretty confident, then you wait four months or so for results. I remained confident for about two months, but then confidence began to wane, in an ever accelerating fashion, and by the time I had to walk down to the place where the results were actually run off on computer paper and posted on the inner side of the window of the legal rag in downtown LA, I was 99% sure I'd flunked. You kind of felt like you'd sell your mother into slavery if someone would just tell you you'd passed! It was an awful scene, people sitting on the curb literally crying, and others shouting and jumping in celebration - they should have been disciplined on the spot for being so insensitive. I finally got through a five deep crowd, saw my name and walked away without emotion, except deep, deep relief. This whole experience is not altogether different. If successful, my main emotion/reaction will be relief, not elation. I will be elated for Spiro, though!!!
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Post by jpg on Feb 12, 2014 23:28:31 GMT -5
I guess billionaires are billionaires because they don't act like other humans...
JPG
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Post by Chris on Feb 12, 2014 23:38:06 GMT -5
My stomach has gotten so strong over the years watching MNKD, I have 8-pack abs without the work.
Be confident in our DD and manage risks accordingly!
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Post by babaoriley on Feb 13, 2014 1:18:04 GMT -5
Ha, ha, Chris, put yourself in a 63 year old body and mind and say that again!!
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Post by spiro on Feb 13, 2014 8:43:30 GMT -5
Baba, at 68, I am too old to jump around a lot, but I do know how to dance around my computer chair, while shouting out non curse words. But I do that believe most people on this board will be jumping around like their pants are on fire with both hands in the air, after MNKD gets a major partner and FDA approval. My computer chair dance will probably last for several hours.
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Post by krj00 on Feb 13, 2014 13:10:43 GMT -5
If Afrezza is as big as Al has us believing it is, then I think it is too big for "one" buyer. From our perspective, there is no way to extract the inherent value due Afrezza immediately on approval. Plus, I think Al wants Afrezza available to as many diabetics as possible, therefore, I bet he licenses it, or partners with several entities. This will give Afrezza time to re-prove itself and gain additional value, and hopefully it will make it more affordable to consumers since there is competition between several big pharma suppliers.
***Basically just throwing some simple thoughts out there for conversation. It's awful quiet***
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Post by liane on Feb 13, 2014 14:07:07 GMT -5
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Post by StevieRay on Feb 13, 2014 14:25:28 GMT -5
Liane, That is so painfully annoying! However, this could be an excellent intro into a commercial which if annoying enough will often be remembered. www.mannkindtechnologies.com/DeviceTechnology/CricketSingleUseInhalers.aspxI hope everyone is holding up ok. I hope we get a nice update on our progress next week otherwise it’s going to be another grueling 6 weeks before ADCOM. All The Best! |
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Post by liane on Feb 13, 2014 14:32:35 GMT -5
StevieRay,
Great Idea! Hope you are doing well!
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). 
