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Post by trenddiver on Dec 3, 2015 18:05:12 GMT -5
As most of you know, who follow my posts, I have dealt out more than my share of criticism of Mannkind and its management. However for the first time in a while I have to say I'm getting bullish on Mannkind. I think most of the bad news is out and good things are happening. Although there are still headwinds out there, I am confident that with Al back in the drivers seat, we have an experienced captain to steer the ship in these rough waters. I am very confident that Mannkind will always have sufficient capital (thru loans or equity raise) to survive. There is NO CHANCE of bankruptcy - NONE. There will be dilution, but as little as possible because of management's anti dilution sentiment.
I also believe that Mannkind's is prepared to take back Afrezza, if Sanofi stupidly decides to "spit the hook". In fact I wouldn't be surprised if Al wants Afrezza back and tells Sanofi "either sh*t or get off the pot". Either way, it will be good for Afrezza.
I'm not saying that Sanofi isn't doing a good job, I'm sure that Afrezza presents a lot challenges and Sanofi is doing this launch the best they can, the way they know how. It's just that we shareholders and possibly Mannkind are impatient because we are seeing the share price erode along with Mannkind's cash balances. Also they probably aren't a great partner in the sense that Al is usually used to getting things done his way - in his timeframe. I also think that because of the headwinds (primarily insurance coverage) Sanofi is not spending the kind of money that Mannkind would like to see spent. We'll see what happens in the first quarter when the 2016 formularies go into effect. If Mannkind prevails in its discussions with Sanofi, We might see some more DTC including television soon.
We should start seeing some good news on the Technosphere front. I'm hoping in the next quarter, we start getting some announcements. Could Mannkind be thinking of spinning off Technosphere to a separate public entity? It seems like a logical way to go.
In conclusion, I'm going to be buying between now and the end of the year. I'm expecting that the SP might be under pressure because of tax loss selling, but on the other hand, some of these short hedge funds might want to take some profits to show good 2015 results to their investors and so we might see some upward movement as a result of short covering buying pressure. Either way I view this as a low risk buy similar to Oct/Nov 2012 and I'll be adding to my position. Hope I have company.
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Post by stevil on Dec 3, 2015 18:19:43 GMT -5
Honestly, if SNY doesn't take Afrezza at this point, I will be extremely concerned. It means they don't think they can market it and it's not worth their investment.
As I said in another thread, SNY needs something big. If they choose to cut ties with us, that cannot be viewed as a positive. It may still work out that way if we somehow get another partner to sign on, but that may prove to be difficult if SNY did all their metrics and found us invaluable. You don't buy a partner without doing your research. MNKD will have to show a new partner why/where SNY failed.
To answer your question, though, I'm still waiting for a firm commitment from SNY before I get excited.
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Post by mssciguy on Dec 3, 2015 18:20:47 GMT -5
trenddiver both EYES and MNKD have pathetic stock price valuations lately. Is it a coincidence? Should Al hire a communications consultant? The year is 2015 and stuff like website, social media presence, press releases, events are normal even for the smallest businesses. On the bright side, you got in at a great price. I bought more a few times during the past couple of weeks. While at the gym I read the ymb and ST ... seems that Renaissance may be in control with algos and the "gang of 05" whatever that is, has lot sizes ending in 5s whenever the really serious HFT kicks in. Those HFT companies don't have a day without profits. They always win.
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Post by trenddiver on Dec 3, 2015 18:30:43 GMT -5
trenddiver both EYES and MNKD have pathetic stock price valuations lately. Is it a coincidence? Should Al hire a communications consultant? The year is 2015 and stuff like website, social media presence, press releases, events are normal even for the smallest businesses. On the bright side, you got in at a great price. I bought more a few times during the past couple of weeks. While at the gym I read the ymb and ST ... seems that Renaissance may be in control with algos and the "gang of 05" whatever that is, has lot sizes ending in 5s whenever the really serious HFT kicks in. Those HFT companies don't have a day without profits. They always win. You gotta hand it to those shortsiders, they really know how to work it. That being sad, Mandkond isn't going to ZERO, thus for me it's a low risk buy. I can only lose $2.00 a share. Trend
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Post by jeremg on Dec 3, 2015 18:32:42 GMT -5
trenddiver both EYES and MNKD have pathetic stock price valuations lately. Is it a coincidence? Should Al hire a communications consultant? The year is 2015 and stuff like website, social media presence, press releases, events are normal even for the smallest businesses. On the bright side, you got in at a great price. I bought more a few times during the past couple of weeks. While at the gym I read the ymb and ST ... seems that Renaissance may be in control with algos and the "gang of 05" whatever that is, has lot sizes ending in 5s whenever the really serious HFT kicks in. Those HFT companies don't have a day without profits. They always win. My personal theory is they know Al and his companies make the perfect target for exploiting. It's like what we saw today, they let the price drift up over a few days and then empty the pot again of new riches [today], they have done this with Al on a much grander scale. He has really lost the most here (on paper) but as opposed to letting their games end with BK whereby they move on to the next target, Al keeps sweetening the pot for them and they keep coming back to feed knowing he'll keep the game in play. It's really a shame that Al has been the greatest victim here; if he had been in his prime, he may have nipped this in the bud before it got to this point. Two things can stop this bleeding: 1) Afrezza exponential script growth - successful commercialization (this falls to SNY) or 2) Technosphere partnership with upfront $. Until then the games are in full swing and it's really one-sided, as far as we can see SNY and MNKD never left the locker room.
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Post by trenddiver on Dec 3, 2015 18:38:13 GMT -5
Honestly, if SNY doesn't take Afrezza at this point, I will be extremely concerned. It means they don't think they can market it and it's not worth their investment. As I said in another thread, SNY needs something big. If they choose to cut ties with us, that cannot be viewed as a positive. It may still work out that way if we somehow get another partner to sign on, but that may prove to be difficult if SNY did all their metrics and found us invaluable. You don't buy a partner without doing your research. MNKD will have to show a new partner why/where SNY failed. To answer your question, though, I'm still waiting for a firm commitment from SNY before I get excited. I don't see it that way and am not worried in the least bit about whether Sanofi remains a partner or any other BP wants to be a partner. I believe that Al will put together a team that can successfully produce, distribute and market Afrezza. If I'm not mistaken, that was Al's original plan. Anyhow, I'm a contrarian investor, and like the risk/reward at this time. Trend
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Post by trenddiver on Dec 3, 2015 18:45:48 GMT -5
trenddiver both EYES and MNKD have pathetic stock price valuations lately. Is it a coincidence? Should Al hire a communications consultant? The year is 2015 and stuff like website, social media presence, press releases, events are normal even for the smallest businesses. On the bright side, you got in at a great price. I bought more a few times during the past couple of weeks. While at the gym I read the ymb and ST ... seems that Renaissance may be in control with algos and the "gang of 05" whatever that is, has lot sizes ending in 5s whenever the really serious HFT kicks in. Those HFT companies don't have a day without profits. They always win. My personal theory is they know Al and his companies make the perfect target for exploiting. It's like what we saw today, they let the price drift up over a few days and then empty the pot again of new riches [today], they have done this with Al on a much grander scale. He has really lost the most here (on paper) but as opposed to letting their games end with BK whereby they move on to the next target, Al keeps sweetening the pot for them and they keep coming back to feed knowing he'll keep the game in play. It's really a shame that Al has been the greatest victim here; if he had been in his prime, he may have nipped this in the bud before it got to this point. Two things can stop this bleeding: 1) Afrezza exponential script growth - successful commercialization (this falls to SNY) or 2) Technosphere partnership with upfront $. Until then the games are in full swing and it's really one-sided, as far as we can see SNY and MNKD never left the locker room.I agree that Mannkind may have been taken advantage of in the negotiation with Sanofi, but that's water under the bridge. But for the screw job, Mannkind has received $200 million plus - up front, plus $80 million in Sanofi money during the last year for the launch expenses, plus one good year of learning experience. I don't think Al views himself as a victim, but he's certainly pissed off and that is probably the reason that Hakan got axed. Trend
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Post by EveningOfTheDay on Dec 3, 2015 20:51:09 GMT -5
I agree that Mannkind may have been taken advantage of in the negotiation with Sanofi, but that's water under the bridge. But for the screw job, Mannkind has received $200 million plus - up front, plus $80 million in Sanofi money during the last year for the launch expenses, plus one good year of learning experience. I don't think Al views himself as a victim, but he's certainly pissed off and that is probably the reason that Hakan got axed. Trend Technically Hakan was demoted because he is still working in the company. If Mr. Mann was as pissed off as you think he is keeping Hakan around sounds a bit estrange. i do not buy they are keeping him around for the purposes of keeping him from disclosing secrets, but simply because Mr. Mann might feel guilty that he actually put Hakan in a rather difficult situation, and guilt is never a good reason to do anything. But that is just my thinking and I could very well be wrong. Further up on the thread you mention the possibility of dilution and, in the event that it happens, it being relatively minor. I have my doubts about this. I understand management is as allergic to the thought as I am and that they will do all they can to avoid major dilution and, as Matt mentioned, giving shorts a easy way out. However, even though hindsight is 20/20, the company really has screw this one up big time. As it has been pointed often, whether they thought they would need it or not, the time to dilute was when the sp was above 8. At present, dilution might end up having to be fairly major if it is going to help Mannkind survive and feed the r&d for TS. I certainly hope I am wrong, but being already down considerably, as probably most of us, I am only left with one valid option which is to average down. If there is going to be dilution I much rather average down after the offering than before, as you all can imagine. With aloha,
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Post by ricguy on Dec 3, 2015 20:53:01 GMT -5
As most of you know, who follow my posts, I have dealt out more than my share of criticism of Mannkind and its management. However for the first time in a while I have to say I'm getting bullish on Mannkind. I think most of the bad news is out and good things are happening. Although there are still headwinds out there, I am confident that with Al back in the drivers seat, we have an experienced captain to steer the ship in these rough waters. I am very confident that Mannkind will always have sufficient capital (thru loans or equity raise) to survive. There is NO CHANCE of bankruptcy - NONE. There will be dilution, but as little as possible because of management's anti dilution sentiment. I also believe that Mannkind's is prepared to take back Afrezza, if Sanofi stupidly decides to "spit the hook". In fact I wouldn't be surprised if Al wants Afrezza back and tells Sanofi "either sh*t or get off the pot". Either way, it will be good for Afrezza. I'm not saying that Sanofi isn't doing a good job, I'm sure that Afrezza presents a lot challenges and Sanofi is doing this launch the best they can, the way they know how. It's just that we shareholders and possibly Mannkind are impatient because we are seeing the share price erode along with Mannkind's cash balances. Also they probably aren't a great partner in the sense that Al is usually used to getting things done his way - in his timeframe. I also think that because of the headwinds (primarily insurance coverage) Sanofi is not spending the kind of money that Mannkind would like to see spent. We'll see what happens in the first quarter when the 2016 formularies go into effect. If Mannkind prevails in its discussions with Sanofi, We might see some more DTC including television soon. We should start seeing some good news on the Technosphere front. I'm hoping in the next quarter, we start getting some announcements. Could Mannkind be thinking of spinning off Technosphere to a separate public entity? It seems like a logical way to go. In conclusion, I'm going to be buying between now and the end of the year. I'm expecting that the SP might be under pressure because of tax loss selling, but on the other hand, some of these short hedge funds might want to take some profits to show good 2015 results to their investors and so we might see some upward movement as a result of short covering buying pressure. Either way I view this as a low risk buy similar to Oct/Nov 2012 and I'll be adding to my position. Hope I have company. Trend Hi Trend, I am right there with you, I am accumulating more at these levels. I think we might drop a little more with some tax selling but I am content on adding here and I have a very calm and confident feeling about MNKD that I haven't had for some time, even with all the unknowns out there that we have been hearing.
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Post by EveningOfTheDay on Dec 3, 2015 21:04:53 GMT -5
I wanted to add, that it could very well be that the company is delaying the inevitable dilution, expecting that at this apparently discounted levels people will buy in and give the sp a bit of a bust before they offer more shares. It might seem a bit opportunistic and somewhat dishonest, but I definitely would not put it past them, based on past history. My point, as I have been repeating in other threads is that I would feel a lot more confortable if the company was considerably more straightforward with its current financial situation.
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Post by jeremg on Dec 3, 2015 21:45:47 GMT -5
I think the secondary offering domestic was a foregone conclusion the day after the TASE failing. I thought the lack of discussion about this was due to the fact that it was just understood... This is why I've been amazed at the people still saying they are accumulating right now, apparently dilution isn't a thought for them(?), I've often wondered why anyone would buy before as opposed to after a) secondary financing allowing peace of mind that MNKD will survive financially for another year and b) dilution to shares purchased. I suspect the next planned bear raid will take us under $2 related to the coming secondary offering.
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Post by bill on Dec 3, 2015 22:24:34 GMT -5
Maybe things are more straightforward than we think. Rose colored glasses being donned...
Suppose SNY began to realize around mid-year that Afrezza may actually be everything Al told them it was. SNY would quickly realize that Afrezza was worth a premium over the injectable insulins if you can claim lower A1c's, fewer hypos, less complex dosing, and no needles. While a change in pricing strategy would annoy Al and MNKD initially, a properly justified higher price would be a critical negotiating point in establishing pricing outside the USA. However, the change to a higher US price complicated insurance coverage throughout 2015 and therefore SNY decided to create the Afrezza savings card to mitigate the effects this year while delaying the full launch until insurance coverage could be improved in 2016. That could account for the flat scripts we've seen all year and the lack of changes in the formularies to date. Their change in heart around mid-year would also account for MNKD's silence since they wouldn't be allowed to spill the beans on SNY's change in pricing and strategic direction.
Meanwhile, we know that SNY developed a contractual relationship over the summer with the early adopters that are meeting this weekend. SNY could have been gathering real-world Afrezza dosing and effectiveness information from that population for several months by now. They could be adding that data to the results from the two studies that were also completed, but not published this fall. Armed with all that information, SNY could be planning to socialize the data with the FDA and use it as the basis for the advertising that will go into the full launch, and possibly a label improvement. They may have already been using the data to negotiate better insurance coverage in 2016. They may also plan on using the data to get approval and better labeling in the US, EU, Japan and beyond.
If all of the above is true, then it would make sense for both SNY and MNKD to be very quiet about what was going on so that other BPs would be left guessing just like we have been. This scenario nicely explains why MNKD would say that SNY had a solid marketing plan and was all over improving insurance coverage.
If MNKD knew all of this was happening, then their primary focus of late would be on TS. My best guess is that Hakan was working on one or more TS deals this fall. When he reported current events to the board this quarter something went awry. Hakan was relieved of his CEO duties, Al took over as CEO but Hakan was kept on. Perhaps the plan is to have Hakan focus on the Afrezza manufacturing process. MNKD needs to ensure it continues to function as US scripts ramp up following a full SNY launch. MNKD also needs to complete the certification of the SNY insulin, and possibly expanded Afrezza manufacturing outside of Danbury. That's more than enough work to keep Hakan gainfully employed.
That situation would still leave Al and Matt with lots of work to do this month. Al is probably trying to complete Hakan's TS partnership negotiations around one or more APIs in a way that would provide enough up front cash to get through all of 2016 without any dilution. Of course, Al would know that SNY was gearing up for a full launch. He wouldn't need to compromise unduly in completing any deals because of the $2 share price. He knows that when it becomes clear that SNY is doing an all-in full Afrezza launch the MNKD share price will improve significantly.
Meanwhile Al and Matt still have to search for, interview, and negotiate the hiring of a new CEO. If SNY is all in and one or more TS partnerships are complete or nearly so, then it's not too hard to see MNKD getting a very effective new CEO. He'll be able to see how the business will flourish under his tenure with Afrezza sales ramping up and the initial TS partnerships in place. He'd also be free to become more transparent with the investors and shareholders since SNY would no longer have anything to hide.
OK. Rose colored glasses placed back in my desk drawer till next time. Enjoy!
PS: I just realized that if I'm correct and the shorts knew what SNY was planning they could have a field day with the MNKD stock price because they would know that no one would defend the company until the full Afrezza launch was announced.
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Post by rrtzmd on Dec 3, 2015 22:33:56 GMT -5
I doubt SNY will drop afrezza. However, I suspect all they will do is use it to promote Wirt's "listen to the patient" hype, and then push all their other diabetic drugs past it. That said, I don't see much of a future for MNKD unless SNY declares its intention to pursue a trial to demonstrate that afrezza is better than "non-inferior." That act would indicate that SNY sees something worth pursuing aggressively and that trial is what is necessary to get decent third party payor reimbursement -- as well as convince docs that afrezza is worth the effort required to use it. As for technospheres, I have to score that a zero until MNKD gets past the "promises" and the "hope" and actually comes up with someone with some cash who wants to use it.
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Post by bill on Dec 3, 2015 22:45:45 GMT -5
As mentioned several times on other threads, MNKD already has enough financial options to avoid bankruptcy for several quarters even without any Afrezza milestone payments or TS partnership cash.
They had sufficient cash in hand for one more quarter. Then they got another quarter's worth of cash from the TASE indices. They also have a third quarter's worth of cash from Mann group loan. Finally, they can raise enough cash for another quarter with the ATM. While they need to keep $25M on deposit, I've read that it doesn't need to be there until the end of the quarter. If true, the above carries MNKD for 4 quarters.
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Post by mssciguy on Dec 3, 2015 22:58:58 GMT -5
Gosh, if I keep reading this pile-on of neg posts on MNKD, I'd have to go out and shoot myself, but fortunately I'm done with this and won't read posts from these types anymore. I learned my lesson! Cheers. my big concern is that both EYES and MNKD have the same sick stock chart. Both great companies (esp. MNKD) but shareholder activism may be called for here. Shorts and hedge funds are probably making more on trading MNKD yearly than our whole market cap.
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