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Post by Deleted on Dec 8, 2015 19:08:51 GMT -5
compound26 I haven't added up the cash number yet but I take it that's correct? in the ballpark of 100-110 million in usable funds? I remember something about 28 million per quarter burn rate from the last CC. So till the end of 2016 on current cash. Ok, thanks for that summary. So they can't take it to the last quarter as that's a death knell and the stock will be approaching zero long before they run out of cash. Wall street pumps money into speculations many years out giving companies PE's of 100's sometimes when it's expected that the company will produce profits that match those expectations. Same in reverse, when a company is going down, they'll start bailing long before it's over. So, the cash situation needs to be fixed, imho of course, as soon as possible. Getting a TS deal in place will be a great step and give relief to current shareholders which is the best outcome short of afrezza starting to sell like hotcakes. Both would make for an amazing 2016 from 1.66/share. You do realize that any virtually TS deal they sign under the current circumstances is going to be horrendous right? They would basically be going to the negotiation table with both hands tied behind their back. They agreed to a horrible deal with SNY for a drug that we (MNKD) personally developed. How much do you realistically think they will be able to negotiate for on a drug that has already been developed by an outside company? My guess is not very much. The only saving grace would be if said drug was nearing patent expiration and the unknown company needed to secure the future cashflows - but even then I question how much of the cut MNKD will get. Also, everyone knows MNKD is cash poor and will take a sub-par deal just to stay afloat. I've been holding for almost 2 years now and have been reading the board almost the whole time - I just don't contribute much. But I'm tired of reading all of this nonsense about a TS deal saving the day. I wouldn't be surprised if they had to give away the farm (like they did with Afrezza) on the first few TS deals just to get the cash flowing. If they survive that, then they can start being picky. I just don't think a TS deal is going to be the payday that a lot of people are making it out to be. My avatar should answer that question. And I'm working on the positive potential of 2016 based on today, right now. But, as you state, if I were to hire a "partner" to come work at my house I would make sure they had the ability to finish the job. Any potential partner looking to work with mnkd would be criminally negligent if they didn't do enough DD to determine if MNKD can finish the race (financially speaking). As a result, the conversation would begin to go south since nobody wants to take on dead weight and mnkd's financial position as it stands is just that, dead weight, to a potential partner looking to develop a drug using TS which will take years from today until it reaches the market. So, to dive a little deeper than just "hey, all they need is a TS deal", I would say that a progression of events needs to happen first before a successful TS deal can be inked such as - first, take care of the cash position. Once that's off the table, normal negotiations are possible. But as a stand alone? We're passed the point where just a TS deal will save the day imho. That was a year ago just after sny signed on for afrezza. Remember back then? MNKD promised at one point that we would hear something by February. I have to go back and check but maybe they didn't specify "which" february? 2016? 2018? lol....sorry, not funny....but still
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Post by Deleted on Dec 8, 2015 19:10:01 GMT -5
compound26 ... that ATM isn't worth that much at these prices. @davinci ... number 1 and 2 would be key for me. Then I'd try to scrape together some more money to help average down. #3... check out my new avatar. Is that classy enough? you have my vote to be CEO
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Post by liane on Dec 8, 2015 20:21:58 GMT -5
#3... check out my new avatar. Is that classy enough? I don't know - looks a little scary to me.
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Post by james on Dec 8, 2015 21:57:50 GMT -5
compound26 ... that ATM isn't worth that much at these prices. @davinci ... number 1 and 2 would be key for me. Then I'd try to scrape together some more money to help average down. #3... check out my new avatar. Is that classy enough? The ATM is worth the amount the registration said it was: $50M on 9/4 $37M on 9/30 given activity following 9/4 So roughly 25% had already been exercised in September and the intent to continue exercising should have been evident. At a minimum, one would absolutely expect that this remainder was pushed out by the time the final share count to be purchased directly by the TASE indices could be known. It may well have happened prior to that in October as the share price had a nice excursion above prices where the company already demonstrated a willingness to sell. I am therefore of the opinion that the company has approximately $90M cash on hand today and possibly more. $32M at 9/30 +$37M from the ATM +$36M from sales to TASE indices - $18M estimated cash burn ----------------- = $87M Is it possible that even more shares were sold in November? Up to an additional 50M shares were registered available to sell on the 424B5 issued on 11/9/2015. The disposition of these are unknown.
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Post by BlueCat on Dec 8, 2015 22:05:12 GMT -5
#3... check out my new avatar. Is that classy enough? I don't know - looks a little scary to me. liane - been watching some Jurassic Park lately? I'm waiting for those fans to sprout out on either side of the lizard head …. eeeeek!
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Post by mnholdem on Dec 8, 2015 22:27:53 GMT -5
#3... check out my new avatar. Is that classy enough? I don't know - looks a little scary to me. I think I recognize the markings as belonging to an indigenous tribe of chameleons in Peru. Centuries ago, they resided near a 250 square mile area that has landmarks that many believe were put there by aliens. They're said to have special healing skills. Or so the legends say, as I recall...
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Post by bill on Dec 8, 2015 22:27:48 GMT -5
sccrbrg I have been saying this for a while now about the [im]possibility of a TS deal at this juncture. No company would be foolish enough [from a negotiation's standpoint] to sign a TS deal with Al on Al's terms or any - even remotely - reasonable terms for that matter. Best case scenario, If MNKD was able to court a deal on likely desperate terms, this may raise the PPS over the short term allowing us to do an offering with less dilution. Even in this case the "shorts" may not let a TS deal cause any significant rise in share price as they would know [as they have all along] that any material effect from this deal would be far off in the future and have no immediate effect on their short position or the survival of the company. Once the finances are in order and we have another year on the clock, then we can explore TS partnerships on more favorable terms - granted of course, anyone is interested in TS given what SNY has done to the brand. jeremg I'll take the other side of that position . If a potential TS partner thought that SNY was about to go all-in on Afrezza (because of the science and a belief that even SNY can't be stupid enough to not take advantage of it), they might be willing to cut a decent deal now before SNY's plans get announced and MNKD's stock price recovers. If the stock price recovers then Al would likely become a tougher negotiator at the point when he's got other options. A lot of this depends on whether the game is rigged. One scenario says that both SNY and MNKD know the outcome and they're just "playing out the string" until they can announce something very positive. In that case, Al will just procrastinate on a TS deal until that announcement occurs or he gets what he wants. Another scenario says that MNKD is somewhat uncertain about SNY's intentions and wants to secure additional funding, just in case. However, if their prospective TS partner has the same information they'll be forced to guess themselves knowing that either the deal gets sweeter or not so sweet if they wait. It's all about perception. My least likely scenario is that both MNKD and their TS partner are confident that nothing positive is about to happen with the SNY / MNKD Afrezza partnership. In that case, you're absolutely right. My guess is that MNKD is probably pretty confident of a favorable SNY outcome, even if they don't know exactly how that will happen. I can't imagine that Al, Hakan, and Matt would have said all those nice things about the SNY partnership, marketing, and insurance coverage all year long if they knew they were getting screwed. They had to know what's going on because of their membership in the JAC where all decisions have to be unanimous or go through SNY / MNKD senior management arbitration and eventually a SNY decision. Since Afrezza wasn't being heavily promoted and MNKD didn't express alarm, I'm hoping it wasn't because they lied to investors, or they weren't aware, but it's because they actually had reasons not to worry or care, i.e., they know something we don't. Oh well, nothing new with that .
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Post by rrtzmd on Dec 8, 2015 22:58:22 GMT -5
compound26 ... that ATM isn't worth that much at these prices. @davinci ... number 1 and 2 would be key for me. Then I'd try to scrape together some more money to help average down. #3... check out my new avatar. Is that classy enough? The ATM is worth 37 million at any share price. That's one of the reasons I abhor ATMs. Mannkind could be selling shares hand over fist right now and they wouldn't be required to reveal it until the next 10-Q. And the only limit on how many shares they sell is the number authorized in the incorporation document. I still do not understand how the SEC could have approved ATMs without mandating disclosure at the time the ATM is used.
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Post by themarlin on Dec 8, 2015 23:26:33 GMT -5
Bill~
"One scenario says that both SNY and MNKD know the outcome and they're just "playing out the string" until they can announce something very positive. In that case, Al will just procrastinate on a TS deal until that announcement occurs or he gets what he wants."
I've learned that Al himself has no problem with applying long term strategies to win in the end. In fact he plots them. Sure there have been some surprises, good and bad, for Sanofi and Mannkind, but I think (like you it seems) that Al and Matt and Hakan all know that a longer term plan is at work. Hence their confidence and optimism regarding Sanofi and Afrezza. Really this makes sense - why not study and clarify and do it right based on the real world experience of the first year or two, rather than push in directions unknown? We saw the latter formula at work with Exubera - marketing isn't everything and can cost a lot and even fail.
Thanks for posting.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 9, 2015 1:38:21 GMT -5
I guess I was mistaken. I thought there was a share limit on the ATM rather than simply a dollar amount. That does make it kind of unpredictable with a stock with free falling share price.
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Post by suebeeee1 on Dec 9, 2015 1:57:50 GMT -5
DBC, thank you for returning to the lizard shape we know and love!
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