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Post by Deleted on Dec 8, 2015 16:43:59 GMT -5
i dont do hope but i will act on actuals, so here are some actuals that will allow me to possibly take another position (long): anything specific that you would add?
1. Fix for the cash position. Maybe al brings the cash, maybe they do another round of loans, or maybe they land a deal. But mnkd needs plenty more cash and now (now being the next quarter or two).
2. Clarity on SNY. Are they sticking with afrezza? Who knows for sure but some signs that would help me include starting the lung trial, starting a label improvement trial, and/or when january comes maybe a word of confidence from sny. But proof in the form of financial committment like the long term trials would be helpful. And no, what sny has done so far prepping for trials is not a sign for me yet. Its not nearly enough.
3. Getting a classy and business savvy ceo in place.
4. Taking some action to fix the balance sheet but not so harsh as to wipe out existing shareholders.
5. If they could bolster their financial position, i would like to see mnkd dump sny and start this process over with a hungry and dedicated BP focusing a lot of resouces into afrezza.
two or more to of these events and mnkd is a different company from what we have seen in 2015.
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Post by mssciguy on Dec 8, 2015 16:46:09 GMT -5
i dont do hope but i will act on actuals, so here are some actuals that will allow me to possibly take another position (long): anything specific that you would add? 1. Fix for the cash position. Maybe al brings the cash, maybe they do another round of loans, or maybe they land a deal. But mnkd needs plenty more cash and now (now being the next quarter or two). 2. Clarity on SNY. Are they sticking with afrezza? Who knows for sure but some signs that would help me include starting the lung trial, starting a label improvement trial, and/or when january comes maybe a word of confidence from sny. But proof in the form of financial committment like the long term trials would be helpful. And no, what sny has done so far prepping for trials is not a sign for me yet. Its not nearly enough. 3. Getting a classy and business savvy ceo in place. 4. Taking some action to fix the balance sheet but not so harsh as to wile out existing shareholders. 5. If they could bolster their financial position, i would like to see mnkd dump sny and start this process over with a hungry and dedicated BP focusing a lot of resouces into afrezza. two or more to of these events and mnkd is a different company from what we have seen in 2015. 6. SNY--- MAKE AFREZZA sexy... hire Eric Fenar and Laura Kronen. They already have a following and communicate. |
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Post by cathode on Dec 8, 2015 16:52:36 GMT -5
We had a thread that was listing specific events/actions/outcomes which might cause the PPS to rise. mnkd.proboards.com/thread/4186/cause-mnkdHere is the most recent list, in no particular order. A. Sales of Afrezza show substantial increases or a large bulk-order/commitment is made from US institutions (military, prison) B. Afrezza is approved or begins to sell outside of USA C. Technosphere partner or licensing agreement is announced D. Company is sold, merged, absorbed by another entity or SNY announces >5% buy-in E. Increased awareness brought to public via celebrity endorsement, new advertising, major news piece F. Clinical results overwhelmingly demonstrate superiority in treating diabetes, which could prompt label change G. SNY announces 8000 patient long-term safety trial H. Major change in insurance coverage and formulary placement from more than one of the huge insurers I. Big shorts collude to cover and ride share price up |
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Post by mssciguy on Dec 8, 2015 16:56:44 GMT -5
We had a thread that was listing specific events/actions/outcomes which might cause the PPS to rise. mnkd.proboards.com/thread/4186/cause-mnkdHere is the most recent list, in no particular order. A. Sales of Afrezza show substantial increases or a large bulk-order/commitment is made from US institutions (military, prison) B. Afrezza is approved or begins to sell outside of USA C. Technosphere partner or licensing agreement is announced D. Company is sold, merged, absorbed by another entity or SNY announces >5% buy-in E. Increased awareness brought to public via celebrity endorsement, new advertising, major news piece F. Clinical results overwhelmingly demonstrate superiority in treating diabetes, which could prompt label change G. SNY announces 8000 patient long-term safety trial H. Major change in insurance coverage and formulary placement from more than one of the huge insurers I. Big shorts collude to cover and ride share price up Would be nice to put those in one of those magic eight balls to forsee how to trade, would be better than any publicly available information. And take less time. |
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Post by peppy on Dec 8, 2015 17:08:30 GMT -5
in reply to, Specific actions that signal better times ahead? A better price on afrezza would help. we have prices as low as 5 dollars a day to 10 dollars a day bought in 90 day supply and 11 dollars a day bought in 30 day supplies without insurance. screencast.com/t/wKi9gXVdRegarding European approval. Europe has a national health program. These prices will not go over in Europe. Better times ahead would be a price cut and increased demand when it is more cost competitive. |
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Post by mssciguy on Dec 8, 2015 17:16:52 GMT -5
in reply to, Specific actions that signal better times ahead? A better price on afrezza would help. we have prices as low as 5 dollars a day to 10 dollars a day bought in 90 day supply and 11 dollars a day bought in 30 day supplies without insurance. screencast.com/t/wKi9gXVdRegarding European approval. Europe has a national health program. These prices will not go over in Europe. Better times ahead would be a price cut and increased demand when it is more cost competitive. paging Dr. Brandicourt, paging Dr. Brandicourt, red courtesy phone, millions of patients on the line, paging Dr. Brandicourt, red courtesy phone, they want Afrezza and they want it affordable, paging Dr. Brandicourt,
red courtesy phone, millions of patients waiting. |
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Post by jeremg on Dec 8, 2015 17:33:31 GMT -5
in reply to, Specific actions that signal better times ahead? A better price on afrezza would help. we have prices as low as 5 dollars a day to 10 dollars a day bought in 90 day supply and 11 dollars a day bought in 30 day supplies without insurance. screencast.com/t/wKi9gXVdRegarding European approval. Europe has a national health program. These prices will not go over in Europe. Better times ahead would be a price cut and increased demand when it is more cost competitive. paging Dr. Brandicourt, paging Dr. Brandicourt, red courtesy phone, millions of patients on the line, paging Dr. Brandicourt, red courtesy phone, they want Afrezza and they want it affordable, paging Dr. Brandicourt,
red courtesy phone, millions of patients waiting. Al needs to flip the switch and initiate the "nuclear" option [whatever that may be]. He's got to be working on something right now, not to say it will be good for shareholders but I doubt he's sitting by idly watching, unless he has somehow lost it. |
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Post by bioexec25 on Dec 8, 2015 17:55:04 GMT -5
paging Dr. Brandicourt, paging Dr. Brandicourt, red courtesy phone, millions of patients on the line, paging Dr. Brandicourt, red courtesy phone, they want Afrezza and they want it affordable, paging Dr. Brandicourt,
red courtesy phone, millions of patients waiting. Al needs to flip the switch and initiate the "nuclear" option [whatever that may be]. He's got to be working on something right now, not to say it will be good for shareholders but I doubt he's sitting by idly watching, unless he has somehow lost it. "Give me Ham on 5, hold the mayo". :-) |
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Post by james on Dec 8, 2015 18:13:00 GMT -5
i dont do hope but i will act on actuals, so here are some actuals that will allow me to possibly take another position (long): anything specific that you would add? 1. Fix for the cash position. Maybe al brings the cash, maybe they do another round of loans, or maybe they land a deal. But mnkd needs plenty more cash and now (now being the next quarter or two). 2. Clarity on SNY. Are they sticking with afrezza? Who knows for sure but some signs that would help me include starting the lung trial, starting a label improvement trial, and/or when january comes maybe a word of confidence from sny. But proof in the form of financial committment like the long term trials would be helpful. And no, what sny has done so far prepping for trials is not a sign for me yet. Its not nearly enough. 3. Getting a classy and business savvy ceo in place. 4. Taking some action to fix the balance sheet but not so harsh as to wipe out existing shareholders. 5. If they could bolster their financial position, i would like to see mnkd dump sny and start this process over with a hungry and dedicated BP focusing a lot of resouces into afrezza. two or more to of these events and mnkd is a different company from what we have seen in 2015. Quarterly financials will be out in Feb. You may find that there is more cash on the books than some think and additional financing is not necessary until end of 2016. This would probably mean that whatever additional measures should be in the planning stage by summer 2016. That report is looking pivotal for establishing investor expectations - they might be able to rationally address this somewhat in the interim through an investor conference. The only other opportunities that I see to fix the financing/balance sheet situation are additional loans (not necessarily advisable), milestone payments, TS deal, or dilution (via buy-in, new offering, or whatever). I don't know how you can do this at present in a non-harsh way. |
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Post by compound26 on Dec 8, 2015 18:24:41 GMT -5
i dont do hope but i will act on actuals, so here are some actuals that will allow me to possibly take another position (long): anything specific that you would add? 1. Fix for the cash position. Maybe al brings the cash, maybe they do another round of loans, or maybe they land a deal. But mnkd needs plenty more cash and now (now being the next quarter or two). 2. Clarity on SNY. Are they sticking with afrezza? Who knows for sure but some signs that would help me include starting the lung trial, starting a label improvement trial, and/or when january comes maybe a word of confidence from sny. But proof in the form of financial committment like the long term trials would be helpful. And no, what sny has done so far prepping for trials is not a sign for me yet. Its not nearly enough. 3. Getting a classy and business savvy ceo in place. 4. Taking some action to fix the balance sheet but not so harsh as to wipe out existing shareholders. 5. If they could bolster their financial position, i would like to see mnkd dump sny and start this process over with a hungry and dedicated BP focusing a lot of resouces into afrezza. two or more to of these events and mnkd is a different company from what we have seen in 2015. Quarterly financials will be out in Feb. You may find that there is more cash on the books than some think and additional financing is not necessary until end of 2016. This would probably mean that whatever additional measures should be in the planning stage by summer 2016. That report is looking pivotal for establishing investor expectations - they might be able to rationally address this somewhat in the interim through an investor conference. The only other opportunities that I see to fix the financing/balance sheet situation are additional loans (not necessarily advisable), milestone payments, TS deal, or dilution (via buy-in, new offering, or whatever). I don't know how you can do this at present in a non-harsh way. Given what we know up to now, as of 31 December 2015, they will have around $35-40 million cash, $37.5 million ATM (if they have not used any since last conference call) and $30 million loan facility from Mann Group. Hope they can announce the receipt of a further $25 million millstone from Sanofi or a TS upfront fee before the next conference call. |
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Post by mssciguy on Dec 8, 2015 18:44:25 GMT -5
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Post by Deleted on Dec 8, 2015 18:44:54 GMT -5
compound26 I haven't added up the cash number yet but I take it that's correct? in the ballpark of 100-110 million in usable funds? I remember something about 28 million per quarter burn rate from the last CC. So till the end of 2016 on current cash. Ok, thanks for that summary. So they can't take it to the last quarter as that's a death knell and the stock will be approaching zero long before they run out of cash. Wall street pumps money into speculations many years out giving companies PE's of 100's sometimes when it's expected that the company will produce profits that match those expectations. Same in reverse, when a company is going down, they'll start bailing long before it's over. So, the cash situation needs to be fixed, imho of course, as soon as possible. Getting a TS deal in place will be a great step and give relief to current shareholders which is the best outcome short of afrezza starting to sell like hotcakes. Both would make for an amazing 2016 from 1.66/share.
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Post by sccrbrg on Dec 8, 2015 18:51:21 GMT -5
compound26 I haven't added up the cash number yet but I take it that's correct? in the ballpark of 100-110 million in usable funds? I remember something about 28 million per quarter burn rate from the last CC. So till the end of 2016 on current cash. Ok, thanks for that summary. So they can't take it to the last quarter as that's a death knell and the stock will be approaching zero long before they run out of cash. Wall street pumps money into speculations many years out giving companies PE's of 100's sometimes when it's expected that the company will produce profits that match those expectations. Same in reverse, when a company is going down, they'll start bailing long before it's over. So, the cash situation needs to be fixed, imho of course, as soon as possible. Getting a TS deal in place will be a great step and give relief to current shareholders which is the best outcome short of afrezza starting to sell like hotcakes. Both would make for an amazing 2016 from 1.66/share. You do realize that any virtually TS deal they sign under the current circumstances is going to be horrendous right? They would basically be going to the negotiation table with both hands tied behind their back. They agreed to a horrible deal with SNY for a drug that we (MNKD) personally developed. How much do you realistically think they will be able to negotiate for on a drug that has already been developed by an outside company? My guess is not very much. The only saving grace would be if said drug was nearing patent expiration and the unknown company needed to secure the future cashflows - but even then I question how much of the cut MNKD will get. Also, everyone knows MNKD is cash poor and will take a sub-par deal just to stay afloat. I've been holding for almost 2 years now and have been reading the board almost the whole time - I just don't contribute much. But I'm tired of reading all of this nonsense about a TS deal saving the day. I wouldn't be surprised if they had to give away the farm (like they did with Afrezza) on the first few TS deals just to get the cash flowing. If they survive that, then they can start being picky. I just don't think a TS deal is going to be the payday that a lot of people are making it out to be. |
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 8, 2015 18:54:46 GMT -5
compound26... that ATM isn't worth that much at these prices. @davinci... number 1 and 2 would be key for me. Then I'd try to scrape together some more money to help average down. #3... check out my new avatar. Is that classy enough?
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Post by jeremg on Dec 8, 2015 19:03:37 GMT -5
sccrbrg I have been saying this for a while now about the [im]possibility of a TS deal at this juncture. No company would be foolish enough [from a negotiation's standpoint] to sign a TS deal with Al on Al's terms or any - even remotely - reasonable terms for that matter. Best case scenario, If MNKD was able to court a deal on likely desperate terms, this may raise the PPS over the short term allowing us to do an offering with less dilution. Even in this case the "shorts" may not let a TS deal cause any significant rise in share price as they would know [as they have all along] that any material effect from this deal would be far off in the future and have no immediate effect on their short position or the survival of the company. Once the finances are in order and we have another year on the clock, then we can explore TS partnerships on more favorable terms - granted of course, anyone is interested in TS given what SNY has done to the brand.
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