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Post by mssciguy on Dec 11, 2015 12:09:28 GMT -5
I don't understand all the hand-wringing.
Clearly, if the company was in big trouble, and wanted to concentrate solely on Afrezza, the TS could spun off, with a big reduction in overhead.
I've seen that before, companies that downsized 90% and stayed in business (it's a little creepy getting hired under those circumstances, it's like working in a ghost town). Just sayin..
Still getting a y=6x linear refill plot. So, after 10 years, refills would be 3000 without any further catalyst. However, other calculations (post on stocktwits) show a potential doubling of users every 12-15 weeks, which would mean 8 fold annual growth which would be stellar.
"You make the call"
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Post by lakers on Dec 11, 2015 12:22:25 GMT -5
Mnkd most likely will get $25M dev for qualifying Sny's insulin in 1H16, $30M for EU approval in 2H16, ~$150M TS pain, migraine upfront in 1H16. Consider the later as more than likely as mgmt is obliged to keep Hakan's promise to avoid SH litigation.
It's in Mnkd's interest to expand quickly in more Territories. With 12 Territories, if each sells $20.84M in the same calendar year (a low bar), Mnkd will get $250M milestone bonus. This is achievable in 2017.
$20M for Japan approval could be in 2H16 or 1H17. More upfront licensing $$ for MS, antiemetic, PAH, cancer in 2H16 and 2017.
All of these are not pies in the sky but realistic. In hindsight, I'd ask for $0.5B upfront for Afrezza. Al was so confident about Afrezza that he thought $650M sales bonus was achievable in first 3 years.
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Post by ezrasfund on Dec 11, 2015 12:35:39 GMT -5
It has been spent. $10M/month cash burn; 2 additional fill/finish lines at $13M/each; repayment of Bank of America loan used some of the funds. For accounting purposes the milestone payments could not be "booked as revenue" until Afrezza and the Sanofi JV become profitable, because of the offsetting liability of the JV expenses covered by the Sanofi $175M line of credit. But the cash was in their bank account and that cash on hand is dwindling too fast. Afrezza is everything Al Mann claimed and more. It may become a true blockbuster in 5 years. MNKD will probably not survive to see that day. When Al began this journey 20 years ago it may have seemed like he had sufficient capital. Today it is clear he and his fellow investors do not have the needed staying power. And remember that although Al is/was a billionaire, much of that money is already tied up in MNKD and is not a pile of assets that can help MNKD. When Afrezza went to market in February anything was possible. Now we know that afrezza is proving its effectiveness every day, but acceptance by the medical establishment will apparently take too long for MNKD to survive. Ezrafund. Unless you are Al Mann's financial advisor, you have no idea of his financial position. You have become a FUDster in many of your recents posts. Trend I do not have a complete picture of Al Mann's finances, but when people say that Al Mann is a billionaire and that he can always come to the rescue with his deep pockets, they are misinformed, IMO. While his total net worth may still be in the range of $1B most of that is tied up in MNKD, where he has said his investment is $900M. I don't think he has the assets to fund MNKD for very long, and he certainly does not have the assets to take MNKD private by himself, although something like that might happen with a significant partner. The question is where will the operating capital come from until Afrezza starts generating revenue? I see possibilities, but no action on the technosphere front or anywhere else. Yes, I finally sold out the last of my position, figuring that this will keep going lower until there is some good news on the financial front. I am a buyer between $1 and $1.10 where I think a secondary offering might be priced, or if we can get some clarity on financing. As I have been saying, Al has succeeded in bringing an import new insulin therapy to market. It may one day be the best selling drug of all time. But this situation is more common than we want to admit. Many times a real estate developer begins a project but goes bankrupt because of delays, cost overruns and market timing. Another bigger developer buy the assets and makes it a huge success. That will probably be the story here. It is not about the medicine, but all about the money. |
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Post by ezrasfund on Dec 11, 2015 12:40:52 GMT -5
Mnkd most likely will get $25M dev for qualifying Sny's insulin in 1H16, $30M for EU approval in 2H16, ~$150M TS pain, migraine upfront in 1H16. Consider the later as more than likely as mgmt is obliged to keep Hakan's promise to avoid SH litigation. It's in Mnkd's interest to expand quickly in more Territories. With 12 Territories, if each sells $20.84M in the same calendar year (a low bar), Mnkd will get $250M milestone bonus. This is achievable in 2017. $20M for Japan approval could be in 2H16 or 1H17. More upfront licensing $$ for MS, antiemetic, PAH, cancer in 2H16 and 2017. Yes, thumbs up. lakers seems to have some kind of inside insight, and this seems like a pretty accurate list. But it is a wish list at this point. |
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Post by matt on Dec 11, 2015 12:43:13 GMT -5
Milestone payments with respect to licensing deals that are by nature derived off IP are, as it has been explained, accounted for in the same way ADVANCES are - thus are for accounting pirposes they are notated as LIABILITIES - this is uniform throughout, public or private businesses. Not quite correct. A license fee for which substantially all of the company's activities have been completed can be recognized as revenue because the earning process is complete. If there are still costs to be incurred or material uncertainties, it remains as unearned revenue which is recorded as a liability. When previously unearned revenue is deemed earned, it moves from the liability section on the right side of the balance sheet, passing through the income statement, and into retained earnings. Regardless, none of this affects the left side of the balance sheet where the cash is recorded.
Cash is about the only simple to understand line on a modern balance sheet. If the company still has the money, it will show up as cash or as near cash such as marketable securities.
What is more important is the interplay between stock price and total debt. The company can still tap SNY for advances or the Mann Group for more loans, but those make the balance sheet look worse. What the company needs is fresh equity, either through sales of stock to the market or income that reduces the hole in retained earnings. A Delaware corporation can be declared insolvent even if it still has cash, so the company must be very careful over the coming months how they manage the balance sheet.
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Post by stevil on Dec 11, 2015 12:45:43 GMT -5
Mnkd most likely will get $25M dev for qualifying Sny's insulin in 1H16, $30M for EU approval in 2H16, ~$150M TS pain, migraine upfront in 1H16. Consider the later as more than likely as mgmt is obliged to keep Hakan's promise to avoid SH litigation. It's in Mnkd's interest to expand quickly in more Territories. With 12 Territories, if each sells $20.84M in the same calendar year (a low bar), Mnkd will get $250M milestone bonus. This is achievable in 2017. $20M for Japan approval could be in 2H16 or 1H17. More upfront licensing $$ for MS, antiemetic, PAH, cancer in 2H16 and 2017. All of these are not pies in the sky but realistic. In hindsight, I'd ask for $0.5B upfront for Afrezza. Al was so confident about Afrezza that he thought $650M sales bonus was achievable in first 3 years. Are you or anyone else able to expand upon the additional funds SNY has said they would be willing to loan to us? I thought I'd seen it mentioned that we could borrow from SNY if we needed more capital as well... Obviously not ideal, but better than BK. |
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Post by lakers on Dec 11, 2015 12:46:21 GMT -5
Mnkd most likely will get $25M dev for qualifying Sny's insulin in 1H16, $30M for EU approval in 2H16, ~$150M TS pain, migraine upfront in 1H16. Consider the later as more than likely as mgmt is obliged to keep Hakan's promise to avoid SH litigation. It's in Mnkd's interest to expand quickly in more Territories. With 12 Territories, if each sells $20.84M in the same calendar year (a low bar), Mnkd will get $250M milestone bonus. This is achievable in 2017. $20M for Japan approval could be in 2H16 or 1H17. More upfront licensing $$ for MS, antiemetic, PAH, cancer in 2H16 and 2017. Yes, thumbs up. lakers seems to have some kind of inside insight, and this seems like a pretty accurate list. But it is a wish list at this point. It's not only possible, but probable. Some are highly probable. Think Different! |
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Post by trenddiver on Dec 11, 2015 12:47:14 GMT -5
Ezrafund. Unless you are Al Mann's financial advisor, you have no idea of his financial position. You have become a FUDster in many of your recents posts. Trend I do not have a complete picture of Al Mann's finances, but when people say that Al Mann is a billionaire and that he can always come to the rescue with his deep pockets, they are misinformed, IMO. While his total net worth may still be in the range of $1B most of that is tied up in MNKD, where he has said his investment is $900M. I don't think he has the assets to fund MNKD for very long, and he certainly does not have the assets to take MNKD private by himself, although something like that might happen with a significant partner. The question is where will the operating capital come from until Afrezza starts generating revenue? I see possibilities, but no action on the technosphere front or anywhere else. Yes, I finally sold out the last of my position, figuring that this will keep going lower until there is some good news on the financial front. I am a buyer between $1 and $1.10 where I think a secondary offering might be priced, or if we can get some clarity on financing. As I have been saying, Al has succeeded in bringing an import new insulin therapy to market. It may one day be the best selling drug of all time. But this situation is more common than we want to admit. Many times a real estate developer begins a project but goes bankrupt because of delays, cost overruns and market timing. Another bigger developer buy the assets and makes it a huge success. That will probably be the story here. It is not about the medicine, but all about the money. You have no picture of Al's finances or his financial capability. |
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Post by cjc04 on Dec 11, 2015 12:54:53 GMT -5
Ezrafund. Unless you are Al Mann's financial advisor, you have no idea of his financial position. You have become a FUDster in many of your recents posts. Trend I do not have a complete picture of Al Mann's finances, but when people say that Al Mann is a billionaire and that he can always come to the rescue with his deep pockets, they are misinformed, IMO. While his total net worth may still be in the range of $1B most of that is tied up in MNKD, where he has said his investment is $900M. I don't think he has the assets to fund MNKD for very long, and he certainly does not have the assets to take MNKD private by himself, although something like that might happen with a significant partner. The question is where will the operating capital come from until Afrezza starts generating revenue? I see possibilities, but no action on the technosphere front or anywhere else. Yes, I finally sold out the last of my position, figuring that this will keep going lower until there is some good news on the financial front. I am a buyer between $1 and $1.10 where I think a secondary offering might be priced, or if we can get some clarity on financing. As I have been saying, Al has succeeded in bringing an import new insulin therapy to market. It may one day be the best selling drug of all time. But this situation is more common than we want to admit. Many times a real estate developer begins a project but goes bankrupt because of delays, cost overruns and market timing. Another bigger developer buy the assets and makes it a huge success. That will probably be the story here. It is not about the medicine, but all about the money. I am just as frustrated, but I think my roller coaster of emotions, anger, fear, confusion, hope, has settled into a numb state of acceptance. I am actually thankful we've plummeted so quickly into the mid $1's, because it has helped me get to this state of mind quicker. Now I'm just along for the ride, I'd rather lose what's left than sell at this price and be on the sidelines when it takes off. This isn't a broke builder.... imho, there's no way a guy like Al can give 20 years & most of his wealth to create what may be the greatest drug of all time and then he and his foundation die broke. Can't have both, either this drug will not be accepted and MNKD will fall, or Afrezza will reach its potential and MNKD will succeed with it. |
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Post by neil36 on Dec 11, 2015 13:05:57 GMT -5
If the MNKD burn rate is $8 million per month, that is $96 million a year. Assuming 35% of current revenue belongs to MNKD, they are offsetting the burn rate with about $120k per week or roughly half a million per month.
To offset half the current burn rate, Afrezza sales would have to grow to almost $2.8 million per week, in order for MNKD to have a revenue stream of just over $900k per week or approximately $4 million per month. To get to this point, Afrezza sales would have to be eight times what they are right now. That's just to offset half the current burn rate.
It's not out of the question, but the key question here is the slope of the two lines (increasing revenue vs. decreasing cash-on-hand). Once this gets to milestone payments that MNKD can book and spend, this company is off to the races. But the bottomline question here is if MNKD can stay solvent until the crossover point.
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Post by ezrasfund on Dec 11, 2015 13:07:21 GMT -5
I do not have a complete picture of Al Mann's finances, but when people say that Al Mann is a billionaire and that he can always come to the rescue with his deep pockets, they are misinformed, IMO. While his total net worth may still be in the range of $1B most of that is tied up in MNKD, where he has said his investment is $900M. I don't think he has the assets to fund MNKD for very long, and he certainly does not have the assets to take MNKD private by himself, although something like that might happen with a significant partner. The question is where will the operating capital come from until Afrezza starts generating revenue? I see possibilities, but no action on the technosphere front or anywhere else. Yes, I finally sold out the last of my position, figuring that this will keep going lower until there is some good news on the financial front. I am a buyer between $1 and $1.10 where I think a secondary offering might be priced, or if we can get some clarity on financing. As I have been saying, Al has succeeded in bringing an import new insulin therapy to market. It may one day be the best selling drug of all time. But this situation is more common than we want to admit. Many times a real estate developer begins a project but goes bankrupt because of delays, cost overruns and market timing. Another bigger developer buy the assets and makes it a huge success. That will probably be the story here. It is not about the medicine, but all about the money. You have no picture of Al's finances or his financial capability. Trend, you, also, have no picture of Al's finances or his financial capabilities, which is just the point. If you know something the rest of us do not, I would be interested in anything you can disclose. Al always said that on his list of the 10 most important things in bringing an innovation to market, the first three were Capital, capital, and capital. Number 10 on the list, least important, is the innovation itself. (An interesting point, as plenty of junk can be very successful.) But although Al well understood the dangers of under-capitalization, it does not mean he could always avoid them. And in a sense, Al has already succeeded. His goal was not more wealth, but a breakthrough treatment for diabetes. |
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 11, 2015 13:07:27 GMT -5
What is more important is the interplay between stock price and total debt. The company can still tap SNY for advances or the Mann Group for more loans, but those make the balance sheet look worse. What the company needs is fresh equity, either through sales of stock to the market or income that reduces the hole in retained earnings. A Delaware corporation can be declared insolvent even if it still has cash, so the company must be very careful over the coming months how they manage the balance sheet.
Details please... under what circumstances? It seems if they have enough cash to pay their bills, they would not be insolvent regardless of the amount of long term debt. So what could happen in "coming months" that could lead to being declared insolvent? |
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Post by compound26 on Dec 11, 2015 13:11:01 GMT -5
If the MNKD burn rate is $8 million per month, that is $96 million a year. Assuming 35% of current revenue belongs to MNKD, they are offsetting the burn rate with about $120k per week or roughly half a million per month. To offset half the current burn rate, Afrezza sales would have to grow to almost $2.8 million per week, in order for MNKD to have a revenue stream of just over $900k per week or approximately $4 million per month. To get to this point, Afrezza sales would have to be eight times what they are right now. That's just to offset half the current burn rate. It's not out of the question, but the key question here is the slope of the two lines (increasing revenue vs. decreasing cash-on-hand). Once this gets to milestone payments that MNKD can book and spend, this company is off to the races. But the bottomline question here is if MNKD can stay solvent until the crossover point. There have discussions on this subject in details. The math works differently from the description above. Mannkind will break even much earlier than what discussed above. I understand the arrangement is that Mannkind supplies Afrezza to Sanofi at cost + certain profit margin, and after that, Mannkind also get a 35% share of the overall profit. |
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Post by dudley on Dec 11, 2015 13:19:45 GMT -5
NOBODY has any legitimate idea what the financing options are going to be. Anybody saying anything with great certainty like so many posters are is just spouting an unverifiable opinion. Opinions are like ***holes - everybody has one, some are smellier than others. Sanofi (and many others) are now well aware of Afrezza's true capabilities. We are looking at in many respects a virtual cure for diabetes - patient testimonials and HbA1c results have proven this. The ONLY thing holding this back is the FDA labeling and a trial verifying the superiority is all it takes to get a label allowing these claims to be made and marketed. That is not a huge obstacle and almost guaranteed SNY is already considering it. What is the market value globally of a virtual diabetes cure? Breath-takingly huge (pun intended and also un-intended). You think SNY wants to let that opportunity slip away?
One way or the other the money will be available to get this over the hump. SNY could just grant a $100 million interest free loan and feel confident of getting it back once the sales kick in. This game is far from over and the prize is enormous. That is what keeps me in with a strong confidence level.
Remarkably similar to Minimed - bumped along for a while, naysayers and Wall Street a-holes pounding the stock saying there was no market. Things kicked in and the stock ran from the $2's to the buyout in the high $40's. It took a few years but patience was rewarded. We are barely 10 months into this and all the crybabies are whining away and complaining about everything they can think of. Boo hoo - this is why I quit posting and why I will probably disappear again - this board has become a whiner's paradise approaching the level of YMB.
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Post by chuck on Dec 11, 2015 13:25:04 GMT -5
If the MNKD burn rate is $8 million per month, that is $96 million a year. Assuming 35% of current revenue belongs to MNKD, they are offsetting the burn rate with about $120k per week or roughly half a million per month. To offset half the current burn rate, Afrezza sales would have to grow to almost $2.8 million per week, in order for MNKD to have a revenue stream of just over $900k per week or approximately $4 million per month. To get to this point, Afrezza sales would have to be eight times what they are right now. That's just to offset half the current burn rate. It's not out of the question, but the key question here is the slope of the two lines (increasing revenue vs. decreasing cash-on-hand). Once this gets to milestone payments that MNKD can book and spend, this company is off to the races. But the bottomline question here is if MNKD can stay solvent until the crossover point. The $8m per month burn rate is just costs outside of the Afrezza 35/65 JV with SNY. The JV is also losing money (about $40m in Q3). The JV first needs to get profitable, then cash can start to come back to mnkd to eat away at the $8m per month non-afrezza burn rate. Matt always talks about the burn rate excluding the JV losses because SNY is loaning mnkd $ to cover 100% of their 35% share of those losses. |
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