Vicious cycle that's how they prey on you

[joeypotsandpans]

until they can't anymore, and that's when you have your bottom. It is consistent that the same group [shows up] when the inevitable bear raids take place. Some attribute the sales to tax loss selling, but when the price drops this low it takes that many more shares to cover margin calls and when the rest of the market is weak at the same time it compounds the situation for some. Example, if someone is getting a margin call for $10,000 well now they have to sell approx. 6600 sh (@ approx 1.55/sh) compared to lets say 4000 when it was 2.50/sh. the liquidation process feeds on itself until the margin is washed out OR you get to a price that causes the washout low. I would venture to say that we are on the brink/precipice of that point. Only the MM's and margin clerks truly know where that breaking point is but it tells you why the lending/borrowing rate dropped as precipitously as it has as that supply continues to enter the market. So be it tax loss selling, or a large amount of forced liquidation, and keep in mind the tremendous open interest in the Jan. options. The "reiterations" of sell ratings on a collective basis is also indicative of a near climatic bottom IMO. Everything looks so bearish and the collective bashers whether soft or hard have/are at record levels on this board. Coincidence...hardly.

The meeting in San Diego comes at a very interesting time in combination with what is going on currently with this phase of the s/p. Personally, from being in the market for three decades this sequence of events along with the quiet period wreaks of a contrary scenario to where the collective sentiment currently lies.

Once again, margin and those looking for hitting it out of the park with shorter term options leave themselves vulnerable to painful losses. 

 

[maxbioinvestor]

I hope it won't happen but keep in mind that if Sanofi is about to ditch Afrezza they are still going to behave like they fully support it until the announcement.

Examples:
In Canada, Target closed all their stores after only a year of operation. It cost them $2B. Just before the announcement you could still see ads on TV (and we would still receive flyers even after the announcement).

In Geneva, Merck Serono closed shop after Cladribin was denied by the FDA. They told employees that everything was going to be fine just a few days before the announcement. It was business as usual until that day. Nobody could have predicted what happened there.

My point is that we don't know what's going to happen. Only a few people take part in the decision so the whole business continues to work normally until an announcement is made.

[charleyd]

Dec 9, 2015 22:02:57 GMT -5 maxbioinvestor said:

I hope it won't happen but keep in mind that if Sanofi is about to ditch Afrezza they are still going to behave like they fully support it until the announcement.

Examples:
In Canada, Target closed all their stores after only a year of operation. It cost them $2B. Just before the announcement you could still see ads on TV (and we would still receive flyers even after the announcement).

In Geneva, Merck Serono closed shop after Cladribin was denied by the FDA. They told employees that everything was going to be fine just a few days before the announcement. It was business as usual until that day. Nobody could have predicted what happened there.

My point is that we don't know what's going to happen. Only a few people take part in the decision so the whole business continues to work normally until an announcement is made.

I agree that if Sanofi is planning to ditch Afrezza, that the decision will be made at the top levels of management, and it will appear to be business as usual until the moment of announcement. I do not believe this will happen though.  I think that since Brandicourt oversaw the Pfizer Exubera debacle, he is in a unique position to understand what went wrong there, and can take appropriate steps to assure a different outcome with Afrezza. 

With him being associated with Exubera, I would think that would have severely limited his future prospects, and yet here he is now as the CEO of Sanofi. It would not surprise me if he sees Afrezza as a do-over of sorts, and wants to shepherd Afrezza through to prove that he can do it - and perhaps vindicate himself for what must be perceived as the biggest screw-up of his career (but now as CEO he has Carte Blanche on the decisions, whereas with Pfizer he did not). 

Hey here is a thought, though perhaps somewhat far fetched - Maybe his experience with Exubera was actually seen as a strength which helped him land the Sanofi gig.