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Post by mssciguy on Dec 14, 2015 16:31:19 GMT -5
MNKD will not have been a better short for those holding the 100 million shares until they cover. Up until then, the shorts only have a paper profit, just like the longs only have a paper loss until we sell.
All that said, it would have been more profitable to have shorted MNKD this year, but only if would you have closed out your position. As a retail investor I can't imagine holding a short position on this stock this long. The only way someone would do this confidently is if they had a lot of inside information because there have been too many potential positives for MNKD and few new negatives.
At this point, I'm almost inclined to think the shorts have known, and know good news is going to get released. I suspect they now believe with a share price near $1 that it may explode upward, but not beyond their cost basis. I also believe they suspect that whatever good news occurs will not be so good that it won't allow them to short MNKD all over again.
Rinse and repeat.
Call options are "almost free" for Jan.16 Is there any money left in the MNKD coffers for remedial executive education? There must be some kind of evening course in Conn. and S. Cal.... Come on guys, get up to speed.
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Post by gomnkd on Dec 14, 2015 16:45:41 GMT -5
Do not expect the stock decline to stop until MNKD becomes cash flow break even. I hope I conveyed an alternate point of view months back.
PS: I've a tiny short position last few months and may cover it anytime.
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Post by bill on Dec 14, 2015 17:18:42 GMT -5
Do not expect the stock decline to stop until MNKD becomes cash flow break even. I hope I conveyed an alternate point of view months back. PS: I've a tiny short position last few months and may cover it anytime. I don't see the logic behind your point of view. MNKD won't be cash flow positive for more days than there are pennies left in the stock for further declines.
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Post by gomnkd on Dec 14, 2015 18:31:16 GMT -5
Do not expect the stock decline to stop until MNKD becomes cash flow break even. I hope I conveyed an alternate point of view months back. PS: I've a tiny short position last few months and may cover it anytime. I don't see the logic behind your point of view. MNKD won't be cash flow positive for more days than there are pennies left in the stock for further declines. Look at GNBT, you can go fractions of a penny. To get a better sense of where I come from, read my last 20-25 posts. Logic is this: For a credible company with revenue generating assets, a rough value of what a company is worth is NPV. If it has no revenue and some pipeline, it is worth NPV after applying a probability to each pipeline drug. There are several companies that had lost credibility and trade at discount to net cash. MNKD management has lost a lot of their credibility over time. It has no pipeline, no prospect of TI partnerships for a long time, no prospect of a label change for years to come, so on. So pipeline NPV=0. Run the numbers with even 5 times current NRx. There is nothing to support 800MM EV. Refill rate % is horrible. NRx growth is horrendous. Convertible debt fiasco & TASE listing were a watershed moment in MNKD's history. It signaled a total loss of confidence of WS/Main street in MNKD. Ever since it has dropped routinely. Yes, Afrezza, a wonderful product has a good chance of succeeding in the long run, most likely without MNKD longs riding along. Market solely exists to transfer money from naive to smart. It has done a wonderful job so far.
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Post by afrezzamiracle on Dec 14, 2015 19:19:37 GMT -5
Is this the same gomnkd that used to run a great mankind/afrezza information website?
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Post by mssciguy on Dec 14, 2015 19:27:31 GMT -5
Is this the same gomnkd that used to run a great mankind/afrezza information website? GNBT? Fractions of a penny... this is too funny. Screw it, I am in this until the end, and at that point, I cash out everything else I have and no more publicly traded companies, ever. Wall Street is a flea and tick bitten rat. Let it into your home through the internet and you are infected. Oh.. I forgot the PLAGUE
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Post by trenddiver on Dec 15, 2015 10:58:20 GMT -5
Longs were right about Afrezza, the medicine, but shorts were right about MNKD, the company. MNKD just did not have enough money for this very long journey. Why their plan includes a cash burn rate of $10 million/month is beyond my understanding, but I wrongly trusted that Al and company knew more than I did. Certainly they should have realized that adoption of Afrezza would be slow, as it does not address an unmet need. There is one factor missing in the comparison to Minimed, and that is cash burn. While waiting for the insulin pump to be adopted, MINImed could pay its bills, MannKind cannot. If Afrezza or all of MNKD had been bought by Sanofi or another BP, this painfully slow uptake of Afrezza by the diabetic community would hardly matter. Don't be surprised to see another round of layoffs.
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