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Post by lmj on Dec 14, 2015 14:18:27 GMT -5
year is basically not facing the truth. MKND management is incompetent IMO. I'm furious with the destruction of capital that has happened. And there is no excuse for the lame level of communication they have had with investors.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 14, 2015 14:21:04 GMT -5
This is probably one of the most successful shorts and I think all of us know that now. However the story is not finished yet.
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Post by lmj on Dec 14, 2015 14:23:13 GMT -5
This is probably one of the most successful shorts and I think all of us know that now. However the story is not finished yet. And what kind of ending do you envision? |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 14, 2015 14:25:54 GMT -5
This is probably one of the most successful shorts and I think all of us know that now. However the story is not finished yet. And what kind of ending do you envision? Well what we want and what happens are two different things. I want to be right in my investment and Afrezza changes diabetes while MNKD still has money. |
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 14, 2015 14:37:45 GMT -5
year is basically not facing the truth. MKND management is incompetent IMO. I'm furious with the destruction of capital that has happened. And there is no excuse for the lame level of communication they have had with investors. Not sure I understand the point of this post. Of course when we're sitting at all time lows, no one disputes that those shorting made money and we lost. I would suspect that for some hedge funds etc. they likely had very good information and thus one could argue the risk reward for shorting was calculated and very beneficial. Probably a lot of retail shorts for which this was simply a gamble... there certainly is risk involved with shorting, especially a highly volatile stock with huge open short interest. There are people that win at the roulette wheel in Vegas... doesn't mean it was a wise investment. How many, if any, shorts really have a handle on the risk and when a positive catalyst might spike the share price... we don't know. If you have some insight into whether it would be better to be short or long right now that would be useful, but unfortunately I think none of us do have insight into the issues that will influence share price in the short run. |
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Post by trenddiver on Dec 14, 2015 14:58:37 GMT -5
I don't think they had better information. I think they analyzed the information better and weren't drinking the koolaid. Also, there are no significant well-heeled longs defending the long side and there is smart, agile committed money defending the short side.
Trend
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Post by compound26 on Dec 14, 2015 15:00:48 GMT -5
I don't think they had better information. I think they analyzed the information better and weren't drinking the koolaid. Also, there are no significant well-heeled longs defending the long side and there is smart, agile committed money defending the short side. Trend Agree. Imagine Mannkind has ample cash and is buying back 50 millions share at this level, what will happen? |
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Post by mssciguy on Dec 14, 2015 15:12:33 GMT -5
I don't think they had better information. I think they analyzed the information better and weren't drinking the koolaid. Also, there are no significant well-heeled longs defending the long side and there is smart, agile committed money defending the short side. Trend Agree. Imagine Mannkind has ample cash and is buying back 50 millions share at this level, what will happen? oh be serious, if anyone was buying 50 million shares at this level, the price would not be where it is. According to @pkgosset Matt said that insiders cannot buy at this time. Al as CEO is an insider, right? But soon, after whatever "material" information which the short side probably already knows, but we don't, is disclosed, yes, a share buyback would be wonderful. FWIW I am beginning to understand why kball had an avatar changing colors... now, I understand. Hope kball is okay... |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 14, 2015 15:14:48 GMT -5
Agree. Imagine Mannkind has ample cash and is buying back 50 millions share at this level, what will happen? oh be serious, if anyone was buying 50 million shares at this level, the price would not be where it is. According to @pkgosset Matt said that insiders cannot buy at this time. Al as CEO is an insider, right? But soon, after whatever "material" information which the short side probably already knows, but we don't, is disclosed, yes, a share buyback would be wonderful. FWIW I am beginning to understand why kball had an avatar changing colors... now, I understand. Hope kball is okay... He is saying if MNKD had the cash to do a buyback could you imagine what would happen to the share price. |
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 14, 2015 15:20:57 GMT -5
I don't think they had better information. I think they analyzed the information better and weren't drinking the koolaid. Also, there are no significant well-heeled longs defending the long side and there is smart, agile committed money defending the short side. Trend Not sure I can think of a time where I had information that would clearly have pointed to the current situation being likely, much less assured. I've read a lot of the short arguments, and many of them I believe were not "better analysis"... e.g. wild speculation about SNY dropping Afrezza, comments by MF about "tanking" Afrezza sales. There obviously have been some misleading things written by the long side as well... such as implying insurance coverage was improving... but overall I don't see that the generally available information would indicate this was a low risk short opportunity. I may wish I had been short, but even in hindsight I can't see a time when it would have met my criteria for being a wise trade... knowing the information I knew. If I were running a hedge fund and betting millions on shorting something like MNKD, I'd sure be pulling out the stops to get information from industry insiders... and some of it like number of prescribing doctors is info that is available simply by paying for it. |
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Post by mssciguy on Dec 14, 2015 15:35:27 GMT -5
dreamboatcruise But as discussed before and obvious to all of us "kool aid" drinkers, Jay Olson of GS began to deliver blows just after launch, there was no way that was public information he was trading on. The CTO is a joke. It's contents were known to the cabal of shorts. I can't imagine any other believable circumstances. WS has every angle covered. Got the information, got the legal concealment by MNKD, SNY, now it's got the quiet period where insider buying or selling could have made some indication. This is nauseating, cannot think of any euphemism.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 14, 2015 15:43:11 GMT -5
I don't think they had better information. I think they analyzed the information better and weren't drinking the koolaid. Also, there are no significant well-heeled longs defending the long side and there is smart, agile committed money defending the short side. Trend Not sure I can think of a time where I had information that would clearly have pointed to the current situation being likely, much less assured. I've read a lot of the short arguments, and many of them I believe were not "better analysis"... e.g. wild speculation about SNY dropping Afrezza, comments by MF about "tanking" Afrezza sales. There obviously have been some misleading things written by the long side as well... such as implying insurance coverage was improving... but overall I don't see that the generally available information would indicate this was a low risk short opportunity. I may wish I had been short, but even in hindsight I can't see a time when it would have met my criteria for being a wise trade... knowing the information I knew. If I were running a hedge fund and betting millions on shorting something like MNKD, I'd sure be pulling out the stops to get information from industry insiders... and some of it like number of prescribing doctors is info that is available simply by paying for it.I agree a 100%. Smart money def pulled out all the stops to figure out the game plan. If the old SNY CEO was in place maybe this shakes out a little differently but def was the ace in the hole for shorts. The illusion of the "what if" SNY drops Afrezza has always shadowed the partnership. |
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Post by ezrasfund on Dec 14, 2015 15:53:24 GMT -5
Longs were right about Afrezza, the medicine, but shorts were right about MNKD, the company. MNKD just did not have enough money for this very long journey. Why their plan includes a cash burn rate of $10 million/month is beyond my understanding, but I wrongly trusted that Al and company knew more than I did. Certainly they should have realized that adoption of Afrezza would be slow, as it does not address an unmet need.
There is one factor missing in the comparison to Minimed, and that is cash burn. While waiting for the insulin pump to be adopted, MINImed could pay its bills, MannKind cannot. If Afrezza or all of MNKD had been bought by Sanofi or another BP, this painfully slow uptake of Afrezza by the diabetic community would hardly matter.
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Post by trenddiver on Dec 14, 2015 16:07:10 GMT -5
I don't believe GS or shorts had any secret info. GS and shorts believed that MNKD would require addition capital requiring dilution before Afrezza was successful. That was their bet. There were many posts on this board pointing out that fact. We longs (including skeptical longs like me) put our heads in the sand, bashed the bashers and drank the Koolaid, thinking the price couldn't go this low. Well we were wrong and they were right. So the question is - what do we do now. I say Buy, Buy, Buy. Lately I've been spiking the Koolaid with Grey Goose.  Trend |
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Post by bill on Dec 14, 2015 16:22:41 GMT -5
MNKD will not have been a better short for those holding the 100 million shares until they cover. Up until then, the shorts only have a paper profit, just like the longs only have a paper loss until we sell.
All that said, it would have been more profitable to have shorted MNKD this year, but only if would you have closed out your position. As a retail investor I can't imagine holding a short position on this stock this long. The only way someone would do this confidently is if they had a lot of inside information because there have been too many potential positives for MNKD and few new negatives.
At this point, I'm almost inclined to think the shorts have known, and know good news is going to get released. I suspect they now believe with a share price near $1 that it may explode upward, but not beyond their cost basis. I also believe they suspect that whatever good news occurs will not be so good that it won't allow them to short MNKD all over again.
Rinse and repeat.
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