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Post by mssciguy on Dec 14, 2015 20:53:08 GMT -5
mnholdem liane the board has degenerated, sorry if I played a role in that Degenerates are welcome here as long as they play by the rules...  Well maybe we all are. And maybe they choose topic headings that spread FUD motley style. I think we are a captive audience at this point. Sure glad my customers love me more than MNKD stockholders love MNKD shareholder relations. |
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Post by garrett on Dec 14, 2015 21:00:37 GMT -5
I am not sure why bankruptcy is even mentioned. Bankruptcy (Chapter 11) is generally used to stay off creditors from attaching fixed assets and/or cash. To my knowledge, MannKind does not have these type of problems. It has adequate cash to operate for several months into the future. That said - if a company has adequate reason to believe it will be unable to pay their creditors in the future, they may file for protection under a bankruptcy filing in order to preserve its assets. It may want to preserve its assets as much as possible while negotiating with its creditors in preparation for re-emerging from Chapter 11. It may also plan for a pre-packaged bankruptcy with a debtor in possession who may have already determined where the technology is to go (Chapter 7). In both of these cases, the current common shareholders are wiped out, but the product can go on uninterrupted and ultimately achieve the intended results. As an example, Dendreon filed for Bankruptcy with over $100 Million in the bank and performed an asset auction. While it just doesn't feel we are at that point and I don't think it will happen yet, there has been absolutely nothing to let us know that a bankruptcy couldn't happen at any time. They've already completed the necessary disclosure in their regulatory filings to provide cover if it happens. Shareholders don't get "wiped out" in a Chapter 11. It's a reorganization of the existing company. As I said, MannKind does not have an accounts payable or debt problem to necessitate such a filing today (as far as I can see). Their problem seems to be a potential working capital problem well into the future, perhaps end of 2016 to 2017. Also, there has been talk on this board about Al Mann wiping out other shareholders - that would not happen. If we get wiped out - so does Mr. Mann. |
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 14, 2015 21:08:40 GMT -5
I just read the latest edition of Nate's Notes (dated 11 December, but published today). So the notes were very updated (have the closing price of $1.53 as of last Friday). Nate does not seem to be concerned about the financial situations of Mannkind at all. He averaged down continuously and encouraged his subscribers to average down at this moment (if they are interested). He noted that MNKD's PPS, if without shorts' action, would be around $8-12. So he attributed the current PPS mainly to shorting + tax loss selling. Of course, his discussion is much more detailed than the above. Nate has 28 years' experience investing in biotech and he started to recommend Celgene when it was at $0.44 (split adjusted price) and Celgene is currently at $108 per the notes. So his experience does give me comfort. If you do not subscribe for his newsletter, maybe you can subscribe for one month for $34 to get access to the last few months' notes to see his thoughts on Mannkind. (FYI, I am not affiliated with Nate in any way.  Just a reader of his newsletter.) How does he explain his non-concern for the financial situation? Does he have some insight that scripts will jump soon? TS deal signed? Raising capital somehow without cratering the price further and having significant dilution? The current trajectory of Afrezza sales certainly doesn't keep MNKD from running out of money. Averaging down is guaranteed to work as long as 1) the stock doesn't stop trading due to BK or takeover and 2) you have infinite amount of money to double down at ever lower prices. Does he give some sort of indication of how much he buying at these levels compared to how much he still potentially could invest... and what his average price is? |
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Post by mssciguy on Dec 14, 2015 21:10:55 GMT -5
I just read the latest edition of Nate's Notes (dated 11 December, but published today). So the notes were very updated (have the closing price of $1.53 as of last Friday). Nate does not seem to be concerned about the financial situations of Mannkind at all. He averaged down continuously and encouraged his subscribers to average down at this moment (if they are interested). He noted that MNKD's PPS, if without shorts' action, would be around $8-12. So he attributed the current PPS mainly to shorting + tax loss selling. Of course, his discussion is much more detailed than the above. Nate has 28 years' experience investing in biotech and he started to recommend Celgene when it was at $0.44 (split adjusted price) and Celgene is currently at $108 per the notes. So his experience does give me comfort. If you do not subscribe for his newsletter, maybe you can subscribe for one month for $34 to get access to the last few months' notes to see his thoughts on Mannkind. (FYI, I am not affiliated with Nate in any way. Just a reader of his newsletter.) How does he explain his non-concern for the financial situation? Does he have some insight that scripts will jump soon? TS deal signed? Raising capital somehow without cratering the price further and having significant dilution? The current trajectory of Afrezza sales certainly doesn't keep MNKD from running out of money. Averaging down is guaranteed to work as long as 1) the stock doesn't stop trading due to BK or takeover and 2) you have infinite amount of money to double down at ever lower prices. Does he give some sort of indication of how much he buying at these levels compared to how much he still potentially could invest... and what his average price is? My father would double down in blackjack at the casino and always won... BUT.... my mother would swing round the table to pick up chips occasionally. For real |
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 14, 2015 21:15:04 GMT -5
Shareholders don't get "wiped out" in a Chapter 11. It's a reorganization of the existing company. As I said, MannKind does not have an accounts payable or debt problem to necessitate such a filing today (as far as I can see). Their problem seems to be a potential working capital problem well into the future, perhaps end of 2016 to 2017. Also, there has been talk on this board about Al Mann wiping out other shareholders - that would not happen. If we get wiped out - so does Mr. Mann. I don't suspect it is in the works, but I've been victim twice in the past to companies where the management team (backed by private equity) took a company private at a point where the share prices were artificially depressed. I like to think Al wouldn't do that, but I would imagine he might be able to find enough sellers at say $2 to gain control of the company and take it private. That would be a nice premium over where we sit right now and it certainly isn't "wiping out" shareholders... but it would inflict a roughly 60% loss on my investment in MNKD. |
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Post by prosper on Dec 14, 2015 21:24:56 GMT -5
Simple question from a stock market amateur but investor because of the science.
If there are 120m+ shares shorted, don't they make their money buying back at the lowest possible PPS?
It seems to me Occam's razor applies here.
Comments welcome.
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Post by mssciguy on Dec 14, 2015 21:27:27 GMT -5
Shareholders don't get "wiped out" in a Chapter 11. It's a reorganization of the existing company. As I said, MannKind does not have an accounts payable or debt problem to necessitate such a filing today (as far as I can see). Their problem seems to be a potential working capital problem well into the future, perhaps end of 2016 to 2017. Also, there has been talk on this board about Al Mann wiping out other shareholders - that would not happen. If we get wiped out - so does Mr. Mann. I don't suspect it is in the works, but I've been victim twice in the past to companies where the management team (backed by private equity) took a company private at a point where the share prices were artificially depressed. I like to think Al wouldn't do that, but I would imagine he might be able to find enough sellers at say $2 to gain control of the company and take it private. That would be a nice premium over where we sit right now and it certainly isn't "wiping out" shareholders... but it would inflict a roughly 60% loss on my investment in MNKD. actually I saw it too, in AS&T a US PC manufacturer many moons ago... I foolishly bought at 25 cents and it was sold to a Korean firm for a buck and I did okay but the true longs had a nice tax write off or worse. |
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Post by nylefty on Dec 14, 2015 21:30:05 GMT -5
I just read the latest edition of Nate's Notes (dated 11 December, but published today). So the notes were very updated (have the closing price of $1.53 as of last Friday). Nate does not seem to be concerned about the financial situations of Mannkind at all. He averaged down continuously and encouraged his subscribers to average down at this moment (if they are interested). He noted that MNKD's PPS, if without shorts' action, would be around $8-12. So he attributed the current PPS mainly to shorting + tax loss selling. Of course, his discussion is much more detailed than the above. Nate has 28 years' experience investing in biotech and he started to recommend Celgene when it was at $0.44 (split adjusted price) and Celgene is currently at $108 per the notes. So his experience does give me comfort. If you do not subscribe for his newsletter, maybe you can subscribe for one month for $34 to get access to the last few months' notes to see his thoughts on Mannkind. (FYI, I am not affiliated with Nate in any way. Just a reader of his newsletter.) How does he explain his non-concern for the financial situation? Does he have some insight that scripts will jump soon? TS deal signed? Raising capital somehow without cratering the price further and having significant dilution? The current trajectory of Afrezza sales certainly doesn't keep MNKD from running out of money. Averaging down is guaranteed to work as long as 1) the stock doesn't stop trading due to BK or takeover and 2) you have infinite amount of money to double down at ever lower prices. Does he give some sort of indication of how much he buying at these levels compared to how much he still potentially could invest... and what his average price is? Nate bought another 2000 shares of MNKD for his model portfolio today, giving him a total of 30,000 shares. He also bought 50,000 shares for his aggressive portfolio, giving him a total of 400,000. He says MNKD is still a buy under $6 and a strong buy under $3. Despite the paper losses he's suffered in this stock, his overall model portfolio is still up 3 percent so far this year. |
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Post by bthomas55ep on Dec 14, 2015 21:37:44 GMT -5
Simple question from a stock market amateur but investor because of the science. If there are 120m+ shares shorted, don't they make their money buying back at the lowest possible PPS? It seems to me Occam's razor applies here. Comments welcome. Labrat - A bankruptcy filing would give them the lowest possible price. If common is wiped out in the reorganization plan, then that price is $0. |
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Post by kc on Dec 14, 2015 21:39:55 GMT -5
I don't believe Alfred will allow MannKind to go into bankruptcy, but it is disturbing that MannKind has not put out a statement regarding their cash position since their Tel Aviv stock sale. KABOOM. |
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Post by mnkdfann on Dec 14, 2015 21:57:41 GMT -5
How does he explain his non-concern for the financial situation? Does he have some insight that scripts will jump soon? TS deal signed? Raising capital somehow without cratering the price further and having significant dilution? The current trajectory of Afrezza sales certainly doesn't keep MNKD from running out of money. Averaging down is guaranteed to work as long as 1) the stock doesn't stop trading due to BK or takeover and 2) you have infinite amount of money to double down at ever lower prices. Does he give some sort of indication of how much he buying at these levels compared to how much he still potentially could invest... and what his average price is? Nate bought another 2000 shares of MNKD for his model portfolio today, giving him a total of 30,000 shares. He also bought 50,000 shares for his aggressive portfolio, giving him a total of 400,000. He says MNKD is still a buy under $6 and a strong buy under $3. Despite the paper losses he's suffered in this stock, his overall model portfolio is still up 3 percent so far this year. In an interview (from 2003 when he was promoting an investment in MNKD), Nate said "I like to get into stocks where I think the company has great long-term potential, and then, when stocks are acting well, we try to add to those positions. When they're not acting so well, we pull in our horns a little bit ...". Based on that along with the news that he is still adding to his portfolio, it sounds as though Nate might be violating his own investing rules here. Just an observation. As many have said, the hardest part of investing is not learning the rules ... it is following them. We'll see how it works out this time. |
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Post by nylefty on Dec 14, 2015 22:38:26 GMT -5
Nate bought another 2000 shares of MNKD for his model portfolio today, giving him a total of 30,000 shares. He also bought 50,000 shares for his aggressive portfolio, giving him a total of 400,000. He says MNKD is still a buy under $6 and a strong buy under $3. Despite the paper losses he's suffered in this stock, his overall model portfolio is still up 3 percent so far this year. In an interview (from 2003 when he was promoting an investment in MNKD), Nate said "I like to get into stocks where I think the company has great long-term potential, and then, when stocks are acting well, we try to add to those positions. When they're not acting so well, we pull in our horns a little bit ...". Based on that along with the news that he is still adding to his portfolio, it sounds as though Nate might be violating his own investing rules here. Just an observation. 2003? I think you meant 2013. www.moneyshow.com/articles.asp?aid=dailyguru-33267&page=1Dec 9, 2013 - Steve Halpern: We're here today with growth stock expert Nate Pile, ... What I like to do is, I like to get into stocks where I think the company has great long-term potential, and then, when stocks are acting well, we try to add to those positions. When they're not acting so well, we pull in our horns a little bit, but ... |
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Post by mnkdfann on Dec 14, 2015 22:42:54 GMT -5
Yes, you're correct of course. My bad. |
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Post by ezrasfund on Dec 14, 2015 23:20:11 GMT -5
When I add up the TASE listing; the fact they they are burning $8-10 million a month and "plan" to continue; they had contingencies to borrow up to $175 million for their 1/3 share of the JV; SNY insisted they sign a long term contract for insulin with Amphastar for $?? Million...
What were these folks thinking? That Afrezza would take off like a rocket for certain? With all we have learned about the obstacles in this short while, none of the experts at any of these companies raised the possibility that the launch would be slow? If scrips were any less than 10 time what they are now MNKD would still be in trouble.
So what is the real story of the redacted SNY deal? Is there anything more? I would say there must be, but after the second CRL Mann and MNKD seemed completely unprepared for the setback.
But I cannot help from spinning a FANTASY with a happy ending. Maybe these health care and pharma veterans figured out that Afrezza would not bolt out of the gate even if retail investors did not. Maybe the big question at the negotiations was whether Afrezza was really as good as claimed and would perform in the real world. So this binary choice led to 2 options; if Afrezza proved to be less than claimed, SNY would quit the partnership and return rights to MNKD. If Afrezza met expectations as a revolutionary product, SNY would buy it out, maybe even in an all stock deal. And this might be why the SNY CEO Viehbacher got the ax. If Afrezza becomes the blockbuster Al said it will it could be a big part of Sanofi's future. But then I remember all of those milestones. The middle way?
This kind of magical thinking is what has me hoping to buy back in when the madness is over. Afrezza is a great product.
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Post by kball on Dec 15, 2015 6:43:21 GMT -5
When I add up the TASE listing; the fact they they are burning $8-10 million a month and "plan" to continue; they had contingencies to borrow up to $175 million for their 1/3 share of the JV; SNY insisted they sign a long term contract for insulin with Amphastar for $?? Million... What were these folks thinking? That Afrezza would take off like a rocket for certain? With all we have learned about the obstacles in this short while, none of the experts at any of these companies raised the possibility that the launch would be slow? If scrips were any less than 10 time what they are now MNKD would still be in trouble. So what is the real story of the redacted SNY deal? Is there anything more? I would say there must be, but after the second CRL Mann and MNKD seemed completely unprepared for the setback. But I cannot help from spinning a FANTASY with a happy ending. Maybe these health care and pharma veterans figured out that Afrezza would not bolt out of the gate even if retail investors did not. Maybe the big question at the negotiations was whether Afrezza was really as good as claimed and would perform in the real world. So this binary choice led to 2 options; if Afrezza proved to be less than claimed, SNY would quit the partnership and return rights to MNKD. If Afrezza met expectations as a revolutionary product, SNY would buy it out, maybe even in an all stock deal. And this might be why the SNY CEO Viehbacher got the ax. If Afrezza becomes the blockbuster Al said it will it could be a big part of Sanofi's future. But then I remember all of those milestones. The middle way? This kind of magical thinking is what has me hoping to buy back in when the madness is over. Afrezza is a great product. Could be. I'd rather believe he was let go because of 1. the embarrassing kickback scheme and loss of credibility and 2. perhaps the company being notified of the Genzyme lawsuit as the major issues rather than 3. any Afrezza/mannkind deal...but its hard to know. But the first 2 are pretty big deals |
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Just a reader of his newsletter.)
