Weekend in San Diego, Mike Hoskins on Jeremy Pettus, and mor
Dec 15, 2015 16:57:08 GMT -5
slugworth008 likes this
Post by EveningOfTheDay on Dec 15, 2015 16:57:08 GMT -5
Regarding the new Mike Hoskins post in Healthline.com, I think a few things can be inferred from Dr. Jeremy Pettus comments. Of course, goes without saying, even if I do, that as long as this is all a personal opinion, my conclusions might be very different than those of others.
Apart from his now well discussed and unfortunate comment comparing dream boat to a crack pipe, the first thing that is clear is that if Mannkind and Sanofy ever thought the drug would sell itself, or with minimal investment in advertising and doctor and patient education, they were drastically wrong. Afrezza will need considerable work if it is to become a successful treatment, and this work that needs to be done will require a considerable investment that, probably, will not see a return in the near term. It is then not too surprising the short side is been speculating Sanofi, which has already plenty of other problems, would drop Afrezza at the first chance they have. It is hard, if not impossible, to credibly analyze the situation without understanding what were Mannkind and Sanofi initial expectations, something that has never been made public, but we do know that both companies have expressed initial disappointment and that, after those comments, little has been said. Is is because the companies are scrambling to find an approach that will provide better results? or, is it because the partnership is seriously strained?
It would seem to me somewhat unreasonable that the expectation is that Afrezza, being so different, would take the world by storm right out of the gate; therefore, the idea that Sanofi would abandon ship so early into the introduction of Afrezza seems to me unlikely. However, I do now understand why those on the short side have been increasing their bets until recently and keeping pressure on the sp, especially if they, as it is likely, might have had an inside view on the initial very real disappointment by Sanofi.
We also know from this article that the feeling that Sanofi might drop Afrezza is fairly spread, as both the blogger and the Dr. happen to mention this. I do not care much for what the blogger might have to say on the issue, but I certainly care for what a doctor, that apparently was attending the much talked about San Diego meeting with early adopters and that has tried Afrezza himself, might have to say. Many here will call this FUD spreading, but in my opinion we are way past the point were we keep holding to the idea that there is a larger conspiracy theory trying to sink Mannkind. The product has simply not done well, whatever the reasons which could be many and not all Mannkind's fault, and the stock price has reflected this. Nate Pile recently argued that he thought valuation for Mannkind could be in the $8 to $12 range where it not for the very large short position. That is possible, but it is hard to argue with the fact that shorts have done really well here, at least on paper.
Another thing that seems clear from the article is that the number of early adopters attending the weekend in San Diego, judging from the picture, is rather small. I had hopes that we were talking about 20 to 30 adopters, but the picture only shows 12, and Dr. Edelman. It could be that there were some that refused to be in the picture, but that was somewhat disappointing as well. I certainly would like to hear from Sanofi or Mannkind how the weekend went, what was learned and how it will shape future strategy, but I am not counting I ever will.
And now, back to the shorts, in the last couple of weeks interest paid by those borrowing the stock and paid to those lending the stock has dropped precipitously. My question to the board in general is whether members think that the interest rates coming down is a symptom of shorts starting to cover in large amounts, or simply shorts thinking there no longer is any need to keep pressure on the stock, since tax season and, come January, Sanofi abandoning the project, will take care of any concerns they might have had of not being able to cover at current prices. Basically, are we about to see a turnaround, something I hope for, or final confirmation on how wrong longs were. And if we see a turnaround, what do members think we should expect? Will we quickly climb back into the 4s, 5s and 6s or are we painfully be dragging, as I suspect, in the 2s and perhaps 3s until we see some clarity on Sanofi’s intent and some traction on weekly Rx.
Disclamer: I have never shorted MNKD, although I wish I would have been smart enough to do so. I still have a long position, albeit considerably smaller than once was, since if I would have not sold I would be loosing too much for confort. At this point, as I often said if I lose it so be it. I am not too committed to either outcome, but there are too many things I do not completely understand so I do not want to be completely out of it. I am somewhat looking for reasons to buy back in, at this apparently very attractive prices, but at the same time I think, as I have said in the past too, this could be as good as it gets, for quite a while. With much aloha to all. EOD
Apart from his now well discussed and unfortunate comment comparing dream boat to a crack pipe, the first thing that is clear is that if Mannkind and Sanofy ever thought the drug would sell itself, or with minimal investment in advertising and doctor and patient education, they were drastically wrong. Afrezza will need considerable work if it is to become a successful treatment, and this work that needs to be done will require a considerable investment that, probably, will not see a return in the near term. It is then not too surprising the short side is been speculating Sanofi, which has already plenty of other problems, would drop Afrezza at the first chance they have. It is hard, if not impossible, to credibly analyze the situation without understanding what were Mannkind and Sanofi initial expectations, something that has never been made public, but we do know that both companies have expressed initial disappointment and that, after those comments, little has been said. Is is because the companies are scrambling to find an approach that will provide better results? or, is it because the partnership is seriously strained?
It would seem to me somewhat unreasonable that the expectation is that Afrezza, being so different, would take the world by storm right out of the gate; therefore, the idea that Sanofi would abandon ship so early into the introduction of Afrezza seems to me unlikely. However, I do now understand why those on the short side have been increasing their bets until recently and keeping pressure on the sp, especially if they, as it is likely, might have had an inside view on the initial very real disappointment by Sanofi.
We also know from this article that the feeling that Sanofi might drop Afrezza is fairly spread, as both the blogger and the Dr. happen to mention this. I do not care much for what the blogger might have to say on the issue, but I certainly care for what a doctor, that apparently was attending the much talked about San Diego meeting with early adopters and that has tried Afrezza himself, might have to say. Many here will call this FUD spreading, but in my opinion we are way past the point were we keep holding to the idea that there is a larger conspiracy theory trying to sink Mannkind. The product has simply not done well, whatever the reasons which could be many and not all Mannkind's fault, and the stock price has reflected this. Nate Pile recently argued that he thought valuation for Mannkind could be in the $8 to $12 range where it not for the very large short position. That is possible, but it is hard to argue with the fact that shorts have done really well here, at least on paper.
Another thing that seems clear from the article is that the number of early adopters attending the weekend in San Diego, judging from the picture, is rather small. I had hopes that we were talking about 20 to 30 adopters, but the picture only shows 12, and Dr. Edelman. It could be that there were some that refused to be in the picture, but that was somewhat disappointing as well. I certainly would like to hear from Sanofi or Mannkind how the weekend went, what was learned and how it will shape future strategy, but I am not counting I ever will.
And now, back to the shorts, in the last couple of weeks interest paid by those borrowing the stock and paid to those lending the stock has dropped precipitously. My question to the board in general is whether members think that the interest rates coming down is a symptom of shorts starting to cover in large amounts, or simply shorts thinking there no longer is any need to keep pressure on the stock, since tax season and, come January, Sanofi abandoning the project, will take care of any concerns they might have had of not being able to cover at current prices. Basically, are we about to see a turnaround, something I hope for, or final confirmation on how wrong longs were. And if we see a turnaround, what do members think we should expect? Will we quickly climb back into the 4s, 5s and 6s or are we painfully be dragging, as I suspect, in the 2s and perhaps 3s until we see some clarity on Sanofi’s intent and some traction on weekly Rx.
Disclamer: I have never shorted MNKD, although I wish I would have been smart enough to do so. I still have a long position, albeit considerably smaller than once was, since if I would have not sold I would be loosing too much for confort. At this point, as I often said if I lose it so be it. I am not too committed to either outcome, but there are too many things I do not completely understand so I do not want to be completely out of it. I am somewhat looking for reasons to buy back in, at this apparently very attractive prices, but at the same time I think, as I have said in the past too, this could be as good as it gets, for quite a while. With much aloha to all. EOD
