mnkdnyc
Lab Rat
Posts: 48
Sentiment: Long
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Post by mnkdnyc on Feb 22, 2014 8:20:24 GMT -5
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Post by brentie on Feb 22, 2014 8:58:24 GMT -5
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Post by StevieRay on Feb 22, 2014 11:07:33 GMT -5
After reading Nate’s article I’m of the opinion that Deerfield might be trading on inside information. If Deerfield has been privy to the complete data set while the rest of the investment community is trading in the dark with regard to the trial data set then this creates an unfair advantage to Deerfield and is in violation of the SEC regulation Full Disclosure.
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Post by babaoriley on Feb 22, 2014 13:58:28 GMT -5
Let me know what I'm missing and I may well be missing something. Is there anything at all surprising in Deerfield's conversion of debt to equity? What good is the debt if the FDA plunges a dagger in our hearts? I can't remember, but don't think there are any meaningful third party guarantors (including Al personally) of the debt.
As far as Stevie Ray's point regarding trading on insider information, I've wondered about that on every private placement ever closed on a public company. One of those unwritten rules? Not sure exactly how that works in practice, but it has worked forever.
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Post by alcc on Feb 22, 2014 15:04:41 GMT -5
After reading Nate’s article I’m of the opinion that Deerfield might be trading on inside information. If Deerfield has been privy to the complete data set while the rest of the investment community is trading in the dark with regard to the trial data set then this creates an unfair advantage to Deerfield and is in violation of the SEC regulation Full Disclosure. I doubt it. That's a criminal offense, as you know. I am sure MNKD had their attorneys vet every doc sent to Deerfield to make sure it does not contain "material" information not already disclosed to the public. Companies selectively disclose confidential info to private parties all the time in the course of business. That's okay so long as such info is not deemed to materially affect the operation of the company. Of course, what constitutes "material" is not black and white. For instance, if Deerfield received a bit more detailed data but such data in the company's opinion does not materially deviate, adversely or otherwise, from the summary top line data MNKD publicly disclosed, then no harm, no foul. What we CAN infer from Deerfield's actions is that they did not see anything rotten (but not disclosed) as the malicious shorts and bashers have alleged.
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mnkdnyc
Lab Rat
Posts: 48
Sentiment: Long
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Post by mnkdnyc on Feb 22, 2014 16:29:26 GMT -5
Just a wink and a nod from Al letting Deerfield know it is safe to jump all in.
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Post by alcc on Feb 22, 2014 16:36:27 GMT -5
Wink and nod is nothing compared to the public table pounding Al has been doing all these years.
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Post by brentie on Feb 22, 2014 18:41:47 GMT -5
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Post by babaoriley on Feb 22, 2014 20:02:39 GMT -5
"Although it is not relevant for purposes of predicting FDA action, Deerfield evaluated the two Affinity trials, including through an independent regulatory consultant with access to all the key data"
Of course that wouldn't be relevant to figuring how FDA would rule, Deerfield likely uses my method, The Magic 8 Ball!
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Post by StevieRay on Feb 22, 2014 20:51:42 GMT -5
In all my years (since 197) of investing in biotechs I’ve only ever seen top line results which normally show primary and secondary endpoints. And I’ve never seen a case where all the primary end points were met but the FDA rejected the drug due to some obscure data in the complete data set. It’s always good to question everything and keep an open mind but at some point you have to draw the line and go with what you know. And so far I’m convinced in the science behind Afrezza/Technoshpere based on all the previous and well documented studies of nearly 6,000 participants. The shorts have a way of spinning just about anything into the next new boogeyman. This week there is a boogeyman in the data! Next week there might be a boogeyman on the ADCOM panel that will vote against Afrezza. And after the votes are in then the next boogeyman will be the FDA which is probably the most scariest of all. And then the final boogeyman will be the potential “flop” of commercializing afrezza. So I guess we should expect a boogeyman lurking around every corner for the next year until one day we wake up to a 10 to 15 billion dollar market cap! And when it’s all said and done all we really have to fear is fear itself.
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Post by babaoriley on Feb 22, 2014 21:41:08 GMT -5
StevieRay, agree wholeheartedly re the shorts and their boogeymen!
Here's the thing, I wonder if anyone could name any public company sponsored drug approved in the age of stock message boards, which did not have a good helping of FUD (or very rational criticism) spread all over the internet in the months leading to approval. Not that I would expect anyone to know the answer, but my bet is the answer is clearly that no such approved drug exists.
Believe me, if Jonas Salk's vaccine were sponsored by (insert public biotech or pharma here) and up for approval, we'd be hearing that there is no way on God's green earth that the FDA would ever approve such a monstrous medicine, and we'd be hearing it from the same kind of jokers we hear from now!
By the way, you don't seem as old as your post would imply!
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Post by spiro on Feb 22, 2014 21:53:18 GMT -5
Thanks StevieRay, I never knew that the shorts were hiring professional boogeymen. That does it, I am officially placing a Greek Katara on the shorts.The Greek Katara is one of the strongest and most feared curses in existence. Once this curse is evoked, the only salvation is to get a Greek Priest to to chant a Paraklesis. The Paraklesis can only occur during the first 14 days of August. The short boogeymen are going to burn in hell by then. To make matters worse, Greek priests are kind of hard to find nowadays.
Spiro
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Post by babaoriley on Feb 22, 2014 22:07:06 GMT -5
Spiro, you're very well intention-ed, but I don't care that much if they burn in hell, I would like them TO get burned on earth in April!! Do you have a curse handy for that?
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Post by spiro on Feb 22, 2014 22:31:27 GMT -5
Babaoriley, the curse is officially on. I have taken out my worry beads, Greek evil eyes and various Greek cursing trinkets and have begun chanting in broken Greek. I didn't want to do this, but once I found out about the short boogeymen, I had no choice.
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Post by StevieRay on Feb 22, 2014 22:52:58 GMT -5
You guys are pretty funny! Thanks for the well needed laughter. Now, I’ll be able to get some sleep knowing an ancient Greek Katara curse has been placed upon all of the short MNKD boogeymen. God forbid the FDA delay until August 15! I hope this joke does not come back to curse us all!
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