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Post by mnkdnewb on Dec 25, 2015 23:17:32 GMT -5
I am new to this board and appreciate everyone's insight and professional unbiased opinions. If it helps prove that I am not a basher, I purchased roughly 35,000 shares on Nov 12 at $2.87 and have not sold any since, and in fact have added a couple hundred shares since. I have been watching this stock and reading up on the company over the last few years. When I saw it in October go down to $2.88 I kicked myself for not having the balls to buy it then when the sp went up to $3.75 in just a few weeks. I purchased on the dumbest day possible... TASE purchasing day, thinking it wouldn't go any farther down and that THAT was going to be the big turnaround. I am very happy that Mannkind was able to hire Mr. DeSisto as CEO. IMHO, he seems to have a good record while he was CEO at Insulet. The general consensus also seems to be positive from most actual non-shorting investors of this company. However, after reading this message board (and unfortunately another), I am a bit worried about fund raising through dilution which sounds like it is a very real possibility if a milestone payment, TS partnerships or a few other positive announcements do not happen over the next few months. Here are a few questions I am hoping some of you can answer. Some I have opinions on, but would like to hear others thoughts as your opinions and facts mean more to me lately than my own opinions (feeing very defeated right now after losing roughy 45% in a little over a month). 1) Do you feel dilution is inevitable and if so, how much dilution would be necessary and when would you anticipate such an announcement? How much of an effect would this have on the share price? 2) There is a list a mile long of very positive catalysts that could make the SP move in a different direction. What are your top couple / most realistic catalysts that could happen in the next few months and what do you think it would do to the share price? 3) The short interest is and has been incredibly high for a very long time. Do you have any real possibilities that could come to fruition over the next few months that would cause the short interest to decline and invite retail investors back to this company? 4) Basically just bottom line this  Are we in trouble here or will we pull through and why? Al Mann takes care of patients and DeSisto probably didn't take this job for need of money which sure seems like a positives in the long run. I also appreciate the mention of improving shareholder value by Mr. DeSisto! Please, don't take this as bashing. If anything I hope this discussion has the opposite effect by bringing to light some of the realistic and positive (not hopes and dreams) catalysts that others and myself can use to make informed decisions (and hopefully to sleep a little better). THANK YOU and I look forward to hearing your thoughts!!! |
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Post by Chris-C on Dec 25, 2015 23:47:43 GMT -5
Welcome to the board, Mnkdnewb!
Your post certainly didn't sound to me like the customary FUD that arrives with newbie shorts. Most of the committed longs here give new posters the benefit of the doubt; and I can assure you that I and many others with thousands of shares bought at prices well North of where we currently stand understand your angst. Speaking for myself, the current share price and valuation of the company, with its disruptive technology and (we think) superior prandial insulin delivered in a novel way, defies logic. I think the evidence is suggesting that pricing, formulary placement, the label (all of these are related), and lack of knowledge/awareness by providers and potential users is gumming things up and causing things to move ahead much more slowly than expected. Having said that, scripts seem to be continuing their slow, upward trajectory that eventually will reach levels of profitability.
Until Mannkind provides some clarity about their cash position in the next conference call, it's anybody's guess as to what the real story is. We don't really know about milestone payments, the income from the TASE offering, or even the precise number of shares outstanding. Some have speculated that shorts are hanging around at the GS target to get the remaining morsels when the company files for bankruptcy, which if it occurs, they will have orchestrated in clear violation of securities laws. The low share price makes a share offering ridiculously inefficient for raising the capital needed to keep the ship moving forward another two years. At current spending rates, the company would need to raise $200M or more, which would be a pretty sizable dilution at current prices. From my vantage point, I'd expect a partial sale of the Afrezza franchise, or some combination of dilution and other arrangements, (perhaps a new Technosphere partnership with a cash payment); but I'm completely speculating and there are many more creative (and knowledgeable) minds than mine on this board.
At this point for me, being "all in" on this investment means I either drown in a sea of red ink or I get to the other shore and toast a victory—which beyond the investment return, is the important success of a revolutionary technology that positively benefits the lives of persons with diabetes.
Good luck to us all and happy holidays. May 2016 bring good tidings. As far as MNKD is concerned, 2015 will look best in the rear view mirror.
Chris C
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Post by Deleted on Dec 26, 2015 8:49:42 GMT -5
Welcome to the board, Mnkdnewb! Your post certainly didn't sound to me like the customary FUD that arrives with newbie shorts. Most of the committed longs here give new posters the benefit of the doubt; and I can assure you that I and many others with thousands of shares bought at prices well North of where we currently stand understand your angst. Speaking for myself, the current share price and valuation of the company, with its disruptive technology and (we think) superior prandial insulin delivered in a novel way, defies logic. I think the evidence is suggesting that pricing, formulary placement, the label (all of these are related), and lack of knowledge/awareness by providers and potential users is gumming things up and causing things to move ahead much more slowly than expected. Having said that, scripts seem to be continuing their slow, upward trajectory that eventually will reach levels of profitability. Until Mannkind provides some clarity about their cash position in the next conference call, it's anybody's guess as to what the real story is. We don't really know about milestone payments, the income from the TASE offering, or even the precise number of shares outstanding. Some have speculated that shorts are hanging around at the GS target to get the remaining morsels when the company files for bankruptcy, which if it occurs, they will have orchestrated in clear violation of securities laws. The low share price makes a share offering ridiculously inefficient for raising the capital needed to keep the ship moving forward another two years. At current spending rates, the company would need to raise $200M or more, which would be a pretty sizable dilution at current prices. From my vantage point, I'd expect a partial sale of the Afrezza franchise, or some combination of dilution and other arrangements, (perhaps a new Technosphere partnership with a cash payment); but I'm completely speculating and there are many more creative (and knowledgeable) minds than mine on this board. At this point for me, being "all in" on this investment means I either drown in a sea of red ink or I get to the other shore and toast a victory—which beyond the investment return, is the important success of a revolutionary technology that positively benefits the lives of persons with diabetes. Good luck to us all and happy holidays. May 2016 bring good tidings. As far as MNKD is concerned, 2015 will look best in the rear view mirror. Chris C Any thoughts of a complete sale? |
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Post by tonyz on Dec 26, 2015 11:57:16 GMT -5
Aren't there other possible outcomes? I've heard others talking about how long the company can stay in business at the current burn rate. Isn't it possible that prescriptions grow at a slower than we would like rate, but still fast enough for the monthly shortfall to decline and maybe the SP increase slowly but surely over the months ahead? Perhaps the binary event (sudden burst of sales or bankruptcy)that many of us have been looking for or dreading never occurs and MNKD slowly but still exponentially grows over time, rights the ship and rewards the patient.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 26, 2015 12:02:03 GMT -5
Aren't there other possible outcomes? I've heard others talking about how long the company can stay in business at the current burn rate. Isn't it possible that prescriptions grow at a slower than we would like rate, but still fast enough for the monthly shortfall to decline and maybe the SP increase slowly but surely over the months ahead? Perhaps the binary event (sudden burst of sales or bankruptcy)that many of us have been looking for or dreading never occurs and MNKD slowly but still exponentially grows over time, rights the ship and rewards the patient. The possibility of increasing scripts and a partnership may be sufficient and the ideal scenario. Hopefully, we will hear something along those lines during the Q4 conference call. |
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Post by suebeeee1 on Dec 26, 2015 13:37:03 GMT -5
I actually am expecting news the first week or two of January. Not fact, just a hunch. It seems like Matt et al have been waiting with any sort of news for the new CEO to announce. Remember Matt said that things were happening and any news should be delivered by the CEO.
Seems to me that there is news and that the new CEO needs to be in place. Done and Done.
Let the games begin!
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Post by nadathing on Dec 26, 2015 13:39:17 GMT -5
Matt stated earlier this year that he did not expect a profit from SNY's until 2016 or 2017. MNKD later said that Afrezza sales were slower than anticipated. I suspect we won't see an Afrezza profit until 2017 at this point.
The unanswered questions plaguing the pps and future of MNKD are: Has SNY filed for EU approval. I believe Matt said no back in November. Why not? They don't have to launch if they get approval, but if it takes up to 210 days it may be until 2017 until they sell Afrezza in the EU (adding months for a controlled launch).
How about label improvement in the USA? Are studies required? Why would they not have started them by now? And then there is the insurance issue.
Dilution makes little sense at $1.50. I can't imaging there would be many new buyers anyway. I would hope (yes the "hope" word), that MNKD sells Afrezza to SNY and focuses on TS or they have a rabbit waiting to be pulled out of a hat.
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Post by suebeeee1 on Dec 26, 2015 13:44:35 GMT -5
Dilution makes little sense at $1.50. I can't imaging there would be many new buyers anyway. I would hope (yes the "hope" word), that MNKD sells Afrezza to SNY and focuses on TS or they have a rabbit waiting to be pulled out of a hat. Dilution is suicide at $1.50. It won't happen. There has been enough money raised to last through 2016. By then, sp won't be an issue. |
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Post by mindovermatter on Dec 26, 2015 14:29:55 GMT -5
Dilution makes little sense at $1.50. I can't imaging there would be many new buyers anyway. I would hope (yes the "hope" word), that MNKD sells Afrezza to SNY and focuses on TS or they have a rabbit waiting to be pulled out of a hat. Dilution is suicide at $1.50. It won't happen. There has been enough money raised to last through 2016. By then, sp won't be an issue. Never say never. A year ago, had I been a member and posted that MNKD would be trading at $1.50 and would barely be able to maintain a 350 a week Nrx rate by December 2015, many on here would have hurled names at me and called me one of those FUDdy duddy guys. As much as I hate to say it, but the shorts were right. They have successfully brought the share price down. It also didn't help that Sanofi and Mannkind have so far been unable to build up any momentum for the drug in the diabetic community. The problem is that picture that is painted on message boards typically do not mirror what reality is. Mannkind will have to look at all its options as the company clearly need money going past 2016. If that means diluting at a crappy share price then they will. The bigger problem is whether or not there is anyone who will buy the shares. Let us all kneel and pray the new CEO can turn this ship around and sail it out of harms way and into calmer and profitable seas. |
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Post by bioexec25 on Dec 26, 2015 14:56:59 GMT -5
Dilution makes little sense at $1.50. I can't imaging there would be many new buyers anyway. I would hope (yes the "hope" word), that MNKD sells Afrezza to SNY and focuses on TS or they have a rabbit waiting to be pulled out of a hat. Dilution is suicide at $1.50. It won't happen. There has been enough money raised to last through 2016. By then, sp won't be an issue. I tend to agree dilution with over 400mm shares & $1.50 nightmare choice. However, perhaps they would assess the 2nd half 2016 pps before deciding. Appreciated pps in 6 mos notwithstanding, a more prudent tactical move may be to just ink a TS deal even if at a discount. Holding out for a full POC price point isn't getting it done. Especially since it appears there isn't a large poc R&D going on. Frankly my larger concern is will docs & patients begin to back away even while acknowledging efficacy. If there is a prolonged solvency issue it simply doesn't help when deciding to go onto a long term therapy. |
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Post by liane on Dec 26, 2015 15:02:13 GMT -5
I wouldn't think most docs and patients even think about the financial health of a company when making a drug treatment choice. In any
event - as far as they know, the name on the label is Sanofi and they should have no concern there.
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Post by bioexec25 on Dec 26, 2015 15:15:39 GMT -5
I wouldn't think most docs and patients even think about the financial health of a company when making a drug treatment choice. In any event - as far as they know, the name on the label is Sanofi and they should have no concern there. I reckon so Liane. Just a concern on my list. Bad news gets out overtime is my point, financial condition and sales uptake. |
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Post by EveningOfTheDay on Dec 26, 2015 23:30:59 GMT -5
I wouldn't think most docs and patients even think about the financial health of a company when making a drug treatment choice. In any event - as far as they know, the name on the label is Sanofi and they should have no concern there. I reckon so Liane. Just a concern on my list. Bad news gets out overtime is my point, financial condition and sales uptake. While I actually agree that most patients would probably not know much about and consider the financial health of a company before using a product, I also think that doctors might a bit more. In this case inhaled insulin already comes with the "previously tried and failed" label. We all know it is extremely unfair to compare Exubera with Afrezza, but if I was a doctor I would make it my business to be up to date on the merits of a medication and the company behind it, so I think the financial health of MNKD could be a factor for some practitioners. |
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Are we in trouble here or will we pull through and why? 
