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Post by krj00 on Feb 24, 2014 14:22:14 GMT -5
Does anyone have any thoughts on 14K $4 April 19 puts traded
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Post by mrhaigs on Feb 24, 2014 14:32:56 GMT -5
Could be a major bearish move or someone hedging their long position. I plan on buying April or may puts as we get closer to adcom to hedge all my shares and calls.
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Post by ashiwi on Feb 24, 2014 14:45:40 GMT -5
I've been Selling plenty of March 22 and March 28 PUTS. Big premium on the 3/28 PUTS. I'll probably buy the to close prior to the AD COM.
April PUT volume probably an institution hedge (I hope)
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Post by mrhaigs on Feb 24, 2014 15:00:28 GMT -5
Yea me too. That is huge volume of puts traded today. And just when I was feeling fantastic...
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Post by mrhaigs on Feb 24, 2014 15:35:22 GMT -5
10,000 3$ puts traded today too...
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Post by mrhaigs on Feb 24, 2014 15:40:12 GMT -5
I dont mean to keep posting on this thread but it looks like today is the first trading day for April 19 options. That being said I'm leaning more toward a hedge play. Let me know if I'm seeing this wrong though.
Thanks
Mrhaigs
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Post by babaoriley on Feb 24, 2014 23:22:26 GMT -5
Those two big numbers for the April 19 puts (the 3's and 4's) are certainly a mystery. That's a $2.5 million dollar gamble! Is it insurance - well, if it is, the premium is high, and the coverage is pretty low. My guess - no one with that much loot makes a bet like that for insurance or hedging purposes, not a good risk/reward in my view. Awful, in fact. Not a real good bear move, either, go ahead and short the stock (or sell a higher price put) if you think it's going to be shot down.
So, let me try this on you guys. Let's say I was either (i) a keen watcher of the FDA, and knew that in a certain percentage of matters of this importance that come up to AdCom with forty-five miles worth of docs, etc., that in X percent of the time, the FDA will delay its decision by at least a week, or (ii) someone who has a very good inkling, for whatever reason (including only two weeks from the 1st to the 15th), that the FDA decision will be delayed at least a week. In that case, unless AdCom hates the drug, then in all likelihood the price of the stock will remain above the $4 strike until the FDA decision. If you're right about the delay, you're getting a huge return for not a lot of risk!
Not an altogether bad gamble, especially if you think MNKD will get approved in the first place.
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Post by krj00 on Feb 25, 2014 9:21:16 GMT -5
While we're at it, can someone tell me why the 4000 March 19 $8 puts keep showing as volume and don't move over into open interest? On Yahoo Finance options, these seem to have been there for weeks.
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