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Post by neil36 on Dec 31, 2015 23:38:55 GMT -5
YMB and this board had extensive threads on Hakam's revenue projections back in 2014 which suggested that Afrezza sales would top $250 million in 2015. According to Symphony reports, 2015 revenue will be just over $10 million or about four percent of that projection. I think many invested on that projection and many sold or went short based on the delta between the projection and the actual results.
But we now realize that the diabetic community will take much more time to embrace Afrezza (doctors and patients). So here is my serious question:
Symphony reports that current weekly sales are around $370,000 per week. Hakam's projection of $250 million in sales would equate to $4.8 million per week or about thirteen times current sales. And no this isn't a soft-bash. I am long with more shares than I care to admit and I have a family member who is "ALL-IN" on this stock at much higher levels. Like all of us, I'm trying to get my head around whether sales have any realistic potential to catapult from current levels to thirteen times more than current sales. And 2015 was Hakam's "conservative" projection, with much higher sales in 2016 and 2017.
Longs periods of comm silence from a company are never a good sign. But hopefully the transition in leadership will lead to some positive comm and better transparency going forward. Does anyone see a thirteen fold increase in sales as a conservative goal for 2016? Is it possible that sales will be more brisk in another country where the hurdles and customer costs might be negligible by comparison? Are other countries looking and US sales and having second thoughts because of the very slow launch?
Serious responses only please. Thank-you
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Post by sportsrancho on Jan 1, 2016 7:33:07 GMT -5
I think we lost a year. What is the percentage of people you feel know about Afrezza? Has anyone on this board met some one that knew about Afrezza before they told them? It seems to me only about 2% know about it. The doctor I work with said he had heard nothin about it other than from me. And said no buzz in the medical community. He has 35 doc's under him. Is on the board of 3 hospitals and is with Doc's With Out Borders. The SNY reps just showed up a week or so ago. Seems to me we could hit those numbers once things get going.
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Post by mnkdmorelong on Jan 1, 2016 8:03:47 GMT -5
YMB and this board had extensive threads on Hakam's revenue projections back in 2014 which suggested that Afrezza sales would top $250 million in 2015. According to Symphony reports, 2015 revenue will be just over $10 million or about four percent of that projection. I think many invested on that projection and many sold or went short based on the delta between the projection and the actual results. But we now realize that the diabetic community will take much more time to embrace Afrezza (doctors and patients). So here is my serious question: Symphony reports that current weekly sales are around $370,000 per week. Hakam's projection of $250 million in sales would equate to $4.8 million per week or about thirteen times current sales. And no this isn't a soft-bash. I am long with more shares than I care to admit and I have a family member who is "ALL-IN" on this stock at much higher levels. Like all of us, I'm trying to get my head around whether sales have any realistic potential to catapult from current levels to thirteen times more than current sales. And 2015 was Hakam's "conservative" projection, with much higher sales in 2016 and 2017. Longs periods of comm silence from a company are never a good sign. But hopefully the transition in leadership will lead to some positive comm and better transparency going forward. Does anyone see a thirteen fold increase in sales as a conservative goal for 2016? Is it possible that sales will be more brisk in another country where the hurdles and customer costs might be negligible by comparison? Are other countries looking and US sales and having second thoughts because of the very slow launch? Serious responses only please. Thank-you You bring up Hakam's forecast of $250 mln in 2015. Although this is reality (you can't change the past), it puts you at odds with many on this Board. They believe that MNKD and SNY planned a very soft launch. The actual sales of $10 mln in 2015 bears out this thesis. No, there will not be a large increase in sales for 2016. The forces that reduced a $250 mln forecast to $10 mln actual are still in place. The best investors can hope for is stability in the financial structure of Mannkind. I think the very bad results in the US has put a pause in worldwide launches. I'm not saying it's stopped; but committing money after you've lost a boatload in the US is worrisome. |
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Post by neil36 on Jan 1, 2016 10:50:01 GMT -5
Thank you for the replies.
I can totally understand a "soft launch" approach, particularly in light of the lessons learned from Pfizer's "all-in" marketing approach from day one, which resulted in massive losses (on a product which was significantly inferior to Afrezza).
The only SNY comment I am trying to reconcile was made during their last quarter results in which they mentioned "lower expectations" for Afrezza. That means they had a target of some kind, which Afrezza sales came in beneath. The unknown is whether SNY views Afrezza sales as slightly below or significantly below their own internal sales target.
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Post by savzak on Jan 1, 2016 10:53:46 GMT -5
Thank you for the replies. I can totally understand a "soft launch" approach, particularly in light of the lessons learned from Pfizer's "all-in" marketing approach from day one, which resulted in massive losses (on a product which was significantly inferior to Afrezza). The only SNY comment I am trying to reconcile was made during their last quarter results in which they mentioned "lower expectations" for Afrezza. That means they had a target of some kind, which Afrezza sales came in beneath. The unknown is whether SNY views Afrezza sales as slightly below or significantly below their own internal sales target. The other unknown is what the original target was. |
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Post by nadathing on Jan 1, 2016 11:05:01 GMT -5
I see a doctor in internal medicine for my diabetes (T2). My last visit was 2 weeks ago. The clinic is Park Nicollet in St. Louis Park, MN. The building is attached to he International Diabetes Center, which is a very well respected medical and research facility. I was recruited for a three P3 trial for Bydureon at the facility.
I asked my doctor if she had seen a SNY rep and an Afrezza presentation. She told me she had not heard of Afrezza accept from me. She also told me that internal medicine has a policy of not seeing reps. This is where it got interesting: I was forced to switch from Bydureon to Trulicity because insurance moved Bydureon to Tier 3. A nurse came in to instruct how to administer Trulicity and I asked her if she had heard of Afrezza and she lit up. She told me that they had patients on it and it was prescribed by Family Practice physicians. She said they were showing good results, but wasn't sure how many patients were using it.
I am very encouraged to know that Family Practice is familiar with Afrezza and prescribing it. My doctor told me she likes to wait 2-3 years after a drug is on the market to begin prescribing it. I will also tell you that after my P3 trial was completed at the IDC I was forced to discontinue it because it had not received FDA approval. A year later it was approved and at my next visit I request Bydureon and she was not familiar with it. She said she would have to research it and get back to me. Two weeks later she called back and advised against it due to the black box warning. I insisted on it and she wrote the script.
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Post by peppy on Jan 1, 2016 13:14:11 GMT -5
YMB and this board had extensive threads on Hakam's revenue projections back in 2014 which suggested that Afrezza sales would top $250 million in 2015. According to Symphony reports, 2015 revenue will be just over $10 million or about four percent of that projection. I think many invested on that projection and many sold or went short based on the delta between the projection and the actual results. But we now realize that the diabetic community will take much more time to embrace Afrezza (doctors and patients). So here is my serious question: Symphony reports that current weekly sales are around $370,000 per week. Hakam's projection of $250 million in sales would equate to $4.8 million per week or about thirteen times current sales. And no this isn't a soft-bash. I am long with more shares than I care to admit and I have a family member who is "ALL-IN" on this stock at much higher levels. Like all of us, I'm trying to get my head around whether sales have any realistic potential to catapult from current levels to thirteen times more than current sales. And 2015 was Hakam's "conservative" projection, with much higher sales in 2016 and 2017. Longs periods of comm silence from a company are never a good sign. But hopefully the transition in leadership will lead to some positive comm and better transparency going forward. Does anyone see a thirteen fold increase in sales as a conservative goal for 2016? Is it possible that sales will be more brisk in another country where the hurdles and customer costs might be negligible by comparison? Are other countries looking and US sales and having second thoughts because of the very slow launch? Serious responses only please. Thank-you There lies the catch 22. Milestone payments for moving production and increasing the number of production lines. Incentive to get those job done. Sanofi responsible for sales and pricing. How were the sales projections made? Sanofi input in the quoted projections? interesting isn't it. The next time we know we will hear Mannkind speak is the JPMorgan conference on the 13th.
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Post by sportsrancho on Jan 1, 2016 14:31:39 GMT -5
From doctorgreenback : Between Jan 5th and the 13th. ((No way Desisto and Al agreed to walk into JP Morgan with NOTHING to say!))
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Post by peppy on Jan 1, 2016 15:40:27 GMT -5
I see a doctor in internal medicine for my diabetes (T2). My last visit was 2 weeks ago. The clinic is Park Nicollet in St. Louis Park, MN. The building is attached to he International Diabetes Center, which is a very well respected medical and research facility. I was recruited for a three P3 trial for Bydureon at the facility. I asked my doctor if she had seen a SNY rep and an Afrezza presentation. She told me she had not heard of Afrezza accept from me. She also told me that internal medicine has a policy of not seeing reps. This is where it got interesting: I was forced to switch from Bydureon to Trulicity because insurance moved Bydureon to Tier 3. A nurse came in to instruct how to administer Trulicity and I asked her if she had heard of Afrezza and she lit up. She told me that they had patients on it and it was prescribed by Family Practice physicians. She said they were showing good results, but wasn't sure how many patients were using it. I am very encouraged to know that Family Practice is familiar with Afrezza and prescribing it. My doctor told me she likes to wait 2-3 years after a drug is on the market to begin prescribing it. I will also tell you that after my P3 trial was completed at the IDC I was forced to discontinue it because it had not received FDA approval. A year later it was approved and at my next visit I request Bydureon and she was not familiar with it. She said she would have to research it and get back to me. Two weeks later she called back and advised against it due to the black box warning. I insisted on it and she wrote the script. trulicity, 12.1 Mechanism of Action
TRULICITY contains dulaglutide, which is a human GLP-1 receptor agonist with 90% amino acid sequence homology to endogenous human GLP-1 (7-37). Dulaglutide activates the GLP-1 receptor, a membrane-bound cell-surface receptor coupled to adenylyl cyclase in pancreatic beta cells. Dulaglutide increases intracellular cyclic AMP (cAMP) in beta cells leading to glucose-dependent insulin release. Dulaglutide also decreases glucagon secretion and slows gastric emptying. HgA1c results screencast.com/t/goCxQkr9g0Pe ( equal to afrezza trial results) medlibrary.org/lib/rx/meds/trulicity/page/3/
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Affrezza; stops blood glucose levels from going high in the first place. The first phase response to afrezza signals the liver to stop making glucose. The high blood insulin level is the signal to the liver. decreases glucagon secretion. stops blood glucose from going up in the first place. screencast.com/t/ssSzINDM THE FIRST PHASE INSULIN RESPONSE DOES NOT HAPPEN WITH INJECTABLE INSULIN. (mealtime) afrezzadownunder.com/2015/09/afrezza-units-insulincarb-ratios/ then afrezza's second stage brings down blood glucose. screencast.com/t/ZaphFSR2qYT5 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I thought it was first do no harm.
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Post by suebeeee1 on Jan 1, 2016 17:20:41 GMT -5
I see a doctor in internal medicine for my diabetes (T2). My last visit was 2 weeks ago. The clinic is Park Nicollet in St. Louis Park, MN. The building is attached to he International Diabetes Center, which is a very well respected medical and research facility. I was recruited for a three P3 trial for Bydureon at the facility. I asked my doctor if she had seen a SNY rep and an Afrezza presentation. She told me she had not heard of Afrezza accept from me. She also told me that internal medicine has a policy of not seeing reps. This is where it got interesting: I was forced to switch from Bydureon to Trulicity because insurance moved Bydureon to Tier 3. A nurse came in to instruct how to administer Trulicity and I asked her if she had heard of Afrezza and she lit up. She told me that they had patients on it and it was prescribed by Family Practice physicians. She said they were showing good results, but wasn't sure how many patients were using it. I am very encouraged to know that Family Practice is familiar with Afrezza and prescribing it. My doctor told me she likes to wait 2-3 years after a drug is on the market to begin prescribing it. I will also tell you that after my P3 trial was completed at the IDC I was forced to discontinue it because it had not received FDA approval. A year later it was approved and at my next visit I request Bydureon and she was not familiar with it. She said she would have to research it and get back to me. Two weeks later she called back and advised against it due to the black box warning. I insisted on it and she wrote the script. We got our script from our Family Practice Doc. Kaiser wouldn't let us see an Endo because my husband's A1c was "only" 7.9! As of today, we have new insurance. Bye Kaiser! And good riddance! |
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Post by vissertrades on Jan 2, 2016 9:11:54 GMT -5
Spent new years eve with good friends that have two kids with diabetes. 10 and 14, what a massive pain this disease is. They both have a1c around 8 and that is considered "controlled". IF afrezza can drop a1c below 6 we ARE looking at redefining standard of care. Users are seeing this but no fda "proof". My guess is mnkd and sanofi are laying low to establish new standard, takes time and how often does a drug come along that wipes ou the established standard?
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Post by bradleysbest on Jan 2, 2016 9:45:23 GMT -5
Hope your right. Afrezza is a game changer & we just need the public to know.
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