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Post by bradleysbest on Jan 5, 2016 15:48:23 GMT -5
A 1 year test drive for 200M....... Al better stick it to SNY!
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Post by trenddiver on Jan 5, 2016 15:55:33 GMT -5
There were certainly many hints that this might happen heading into the end of last year. The fact was SNY at some point gave up and was not motivated to sell Afrezza. Having a partner that is not motivated to sell your product and holds the keys to all marketing and sales is not an ideal situation. While the termination of the agreement seems like a major short term blow, the fact is that SNY basically paid MNKD about $200 million for a 1 year trial and then backed out. At this point, if MNKD can find a different partnership, the situation would actually be fantastic long term. The problem would be needing to try to go it alone if no partnership is found. If that were the case, MNKD would need to cut expenditures significantly while also needing to raise some capital. That would mean that it would either spin off Afrezza or turn into a purely manufacturing company until sales started catching up with expenses. Worst case, the fire sale of the entire company for the tax losses incurred alone is higher than the market cap of the entire company right now so I see significantly more upside than downside right now. I continue to hold and add when I have spare funds and will continue to post and observe here, but I have been taking a break from looking day to day since the atmosphere has been fairly toxic as everyone is always in a foul mood when paper losses are incurred. In addition, Sanofi spent over $150 million launching the product (although MNKD owes $50 milion +- to Sanofi). I'm trying to look at this from the bright side. Its better to get rid of a partner who is not performing and who is costing you money every day. Hopefully Al and the team can move beyond this. Based on the market cap of $325 million, it seems like a compelling buy. So I just pulled the trigger. 5000 sh @ $.7398. Trend |
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Post by biffn on Jan 5, 2016 16:00:26 GMT -5
A 1 year test drive for 200M....... Al better stick it to SNY! More like taking the test drive to the demolition derby. That's not what the money was for. Just hope Al did not rely on SNY's good intentions. |
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Post by mindovermatter on Jan 5, 2016 16:01:51 GMT -5
A 1 year test drive for 200M....... Al better stick it to SNY! More like taking the test drive to the demolition derby. That's not what the money was for. Just hope Al did not rely on SNY's good intentions. Maybe Al can sue SNY for elder abuse!  |
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Post by kc on Jan 5, 2016 16:31:09 GMT -5
Glad to hear from you again Patryn...... I agree with you 100% I just hope we find that nimble company that is innovative enough to take on Afrezza. The product works and can be a game changer for Pre-Diabetics and T1 and T2.
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Post by kc on Jan 5, 2016 16:32:44 GMT -5
There were certainly many hints that this might happen heading into the end of last year. The fact was SNY at some point gave up and was not motivated to sell Afrezza. Having a partner that is not motivated to sell your product and holds the keys to all marketing and sales is not an ideal situation. While the termination of the agreement seems like a major short term blow, the fact is that SNY basically paid MNKD about $200 million for a 1 year trial and then backed out. At this point, if MNKD can find a different partnership, the situation would actually be fantastic long term. The problem would be needing to try to go it alone if no partnership is found. If that were the case, MNKD would need to cut expenditures significantly while also needing to raise some capital. That would mean that it would either spin off Afrezza or turn into a purely manufacturing company until sales started catching up with expenses. Worst case, the fire sale of the entire company for the tax losses incurred alone is higher than the market cap of the entire company right now so I see significantly more upside than downside right now. I continue to hold and add when I have spare funds and will continue to post and observe here, but I have been taking a break from looking day to day since the atmosphere has been fairly toxic as everyone is always in a foul mood when paper losses are incurred. In addition, Sanofi spent over $150 million launching the product (although MNKD owes $50 milion +- to Sanofi). I'm trying to look at this from the bright side. Its better to get rid of a partner who is not performing and who is costing you money every day. Hopefully Al and the team can move beyond this. Based on the market cap of $325 million, it seems like a compelling buy. So I just pulled the trigger. 5000 sh @ $.7398. Trend That 50 Million is not due for many years is that correct? I believe that Matt said 10 years after termination? Can somebody confirm that? |
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Post by goyocafe on Jan 5, 2016 16:47:54 GMT -5
Matt sounded thoroughly pissed off. He was biting his tongue as best I could tell about SNY and their marketing strategy. How many times to he repeat that they will be developing a new (and improved) strategy, both for pricing, and scope (international). IOW, SNY didn't lift a finger more than they had to for the entire duration of this "partnership".
I guess we hear more next week, maybe.
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Post by silentknight on Jan 5, 2016 16:51:02 GMT -5
I think he said all the could say in light of the developments. They didn't know until yesterday so they're in damage control mode currently.
I was reassured by his determination that Afrezza would succeed and that the lights aren't going off tomorrow. I expect we'll know more next week at the JPM conference.
I like that they aren't giving up. We need fire right now. That's the first I've seen from Matt in two years.
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Post by bradleysbest on Jan 5, 2016 16:52:13 GMT -5
Money is due to SNY in Aug 2024
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Post by compound26 on Jan 5, 2016 18:30:08 GMT -5
Could it be that the main reason that Sanofi has no interest in marketing Afrezza because Afrezza reduces the use of basal? The reduction of the use of basal probably was not that widely noted in the trials. However, in the real world, many people started to notice that. So at that point, Sanofi clearly saw conflict of interest and decided to drop Afrezza. www.afrezzajustbreathe.com/afrezza-reduced-basal-insulin-need/ |
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Post by liane on Jan 5, 2016 18:44:58 GMT -5
compound26 Very good point. In fact, during the trials, we were expecting that basal would need to be increased to attain A1c control. There was so much talk that physicians participating in the trials would be reluctant to do that for fear of hypos (using conventional thinking). I'll have to admit that even with as much that I know of chemistry and medicine, needing less basal was the one thing I never expected - until we heard from the pioneering first users such Sam. But it makes so much sense now.
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Post by cjc04 on Jan 5, 2016 20:11:29 GMT -5
compound26 Very good point. In fact, during the trials, we were expecting that basal would need to be increased to attain A1c control. There was so much talk that physicians participating in the trials would be reluctant to do that for fear of hypos (using conventional thinking). I'll have to admit that even with as much that I know of chemistry and medicine, needing less basal was the one thing I never expected - until we heard from the pioneering first users such Sam. But it makes so much sense now. My argument with that is that if Afrezza was so amazing to make them feel threatened, then they could've cornered the massive diabetes market and taken everyone else's share, especially if they combo it with their in house long lasting..... Not to mention they've had YEARS to look at Afrezza and hundreds of millions of dollars invested. This argument is a joke. btw,,,,, simple disclaimer,,, 30,000 shares @ $6.04 So you can imagine my response to anyone who thinks I'm anything other than a pissed off LONG! |
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Post by mnholdem on Jan 5, 2016 20:58:49 GMT -5
Sanofi may have had years, but that would have been years of examining results under strict trial protocols. Real world results are often unexpected, as liane stated above and as Afrezza's early adopters discovered.
I'm not discounting the argument put forth by cjc04 however. I just think the decision was made long ago. Contractually, Sanofi couldn't end the agreement until January 1, 2016. I also don't believe their statement today that the cost of bring Afrezza to market is too high. I happen to think that Sanofi decided to break with MannKind after its changing of the guard at the CEO position. Nothing more.
I also think that they will, one day, regret letting Afrezza get away and that Brandicourt will not sit on his throne for very long. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 5, 2016 21:01:46 GMT -5
Sanofi may have had years, but that would have been years of examining results under strict trial protocols. Real world results are often unexpected, as liane stated above and as Afrezza's early adopters discovered.
I'm not discounting the argument put forth by cjc04 however. I just think the decision was made long ago. Contractually, Sanofi couldn't end the agreement until January 1, 2016. I also don't believe their statement today that the cost of bring Afrezza to market is too high. I happen to think that Sanofi decided to break with MannKind after its changing of the guard at the CEO position. Nothing more.
I also think that they will, one day, regret letting Afrezza get away and that Brandicourt will not sit on his throne for very long. Brandicourt - will be famous for/with both of his debacles |
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Post by mindovermatter on Jan 5, 2016 21:07:13 GMT -5
Sanofi may have had years, but that would have been years of examining results under strict trial protocols. Real world results are often unexpected, as liane stated above and as Afrezza's early adopters discovered.
I'm not discounting the argument put forth by cjc04 however. I just think the decision was made long ago. Contractually, Sanofi couldn't end the agreement until January 1, 2016. I also don't believe their statement today that the cost of bring Afrezza to market is too high. I happen to think that Sanofi decided to break with MannKind after its changing of the guard at the CEO position. Nothing more.
I also think that they will, one day, regret letting Afrezza get away and that Brandicourt will not sit on his throne for very long. Sanofi's diabetes franchise is crumbling. While the news today stings, hopefully it will end up being the best thing ever to happen to Mannkind because Afrezza has safely left the crumbling Sanofi empire unharmed. |
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