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Post by kc on Jan 6, 2016 11:21:07 GMT -5
Can MNKD produce, market, and sell the product profitably with a 20% price cut? Does anybody know the all-inclusive cost of sales per unit versus was a 20% discount to managed care pricing would look like? Afrezza is not as efficient as injected insulin due to the amount of drug not absorbed via the lung, so there is more active pharmaceutical ingredient required to deliver an equivalent therapeutic dose, plus the additional cost of the device and delivery system. What are the real economics of that "wake up call"? In this entire thread, no one has mentioned profit margins until this... I would imagine it costs more to produce afrezza than your typical insulin, so I'm not sure they could afford to turn afrezza into a loss leader just for the sake of market share. In fact, if they lose money on each unit sold, larger market share would only exacerbate their financial woes. It's going to depend entirely on what their margins are, and I don't think they've ever stated those on record. Correct. You have to price it to make a profit. We don't know what that price is so that is something beyond our pay grade. They do have to have a good partner or owner who has the pockets to get the product to market. The Company needs to be sold to accomplish that task or its over for us as small shareholders. Al holds all the chips on if the company is to be sold. My guess is that he would like to see MannKind successfully transitioned into the hands of a company that will continue to develop Technosphere and Afrezza. There is a small window to get this done with out a bankruptcy filing. In a bankruptcy filing we lose everything. All might still retain some equity but small shareholders are wiped out.
I would bet that a Sale is closer than we know it. One or two of the articles by WSJ and LA times mentioned putting the company up for sale. I am sure its on the market right now and we will eventually see that happen in the next quarter. I can live with that if the small shareholder is not wiped out 100%.
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Post by bradleysbest on Jan 6, 2016 11:26:26 GMT -5
KC, All speculation but what price could MNKD possibly get right now? Is Afrezza sold by itself or all of MNKD?
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Post by tripoley on Jan 6, 2016 12:15:52 GMT -5
I'd find the price of Toujeo or Lantus, match it, and cut it by 15%. Create demand first, get good results, create patient loyalty and then look to raise prices later, GRADUALLY. 100% of 50 is still better than 35% of 100. That's what I would do if I were MNKD. It's not "directly" competing with those as they're not prandial, but haircutting 20% under current Novolog, Humalog should be a nice wake up call to providers, competitors, physicians, and patients. Time to stir up the hornets nest. They are absolutely competing with basal in T2s. SNY wants to put every T2 not controlled on orals on Lantus or Toujeo. Totally ass-backwards physiologically speaking but that's where the money is. |
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Post by kc on Jan 6, 2016 12:18:24 GMT -5
KC, All speculation but what price could MNKD possibly get right now? Is Afrezza sold by itself or all of MNKD? More today than after a bankruptcy. Perhaps only 2 or 3 billion. But some of nothing is better than nothing. I would accept that for my shares. I have a substantial number of shares. I can accept a total loss but would like to see some value. |
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Post by tripoley on Jan 6, 2016 12:24:44 GMT -5
MnHoldem's Support Plan for U.S. Commercialization of Afrezza:
1. Lower the price to below current RAA insulin (Novolog, Humulog);
2. Prove superiority via FDA-approved postmarket trial ASAP; 2a. Fund university studies to confirm previous studies demonstrating 40% effectiveness of early insulin treatment for remission of disease;
3. Raise price of Afrezza based on superiority data.
#1 may lead to better Tier coverage
#2 definitely will lead to better Tier coverage
#3 by then, market penetration and demand for Afrezza will prevail... just don't raise the price too much! Lower the price to get tier 2 status and go after T2s with a hardcore DTC strategy. When T2s come back with better BP, triglycerides, weight, good cholesterol and blood sugars it will catch on. |
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Post by mnholdem on Jan 6, 2016 12:39:57 GMT -5
MnHoldem's Support Plan for U.S. Commercialization of Afrezza:
1. Lower the price to below current RAA insulin (Novolog, Humulog);
2. Prove superiority via FDA-approved postmarket trial ASAP; 2a. Fund university studies to confirm previous studies demonstrating 40% effectiveness of early insulin treatment for remission of disease;
3. Raise price of Afrezza based on superiority data.
#1 may lead to better Tier coverage
#2 definitely will lead to better Tier coverage
#3 by then, market penetration and demand for Afrezza will prevail... just don't raise the price too much! This sounds great.
How do they finance ANY of it?
Financing would be minimal and could be offset by an expected uptick in sales caused by improved Tier coverage following price reduction.
#1 Costs nothing except the time it would take to contact and notify 3rd Party Payers, starting with the major plans. #2 Costs would depend on the size and protocols established by the FDA. However; #2a Academic studies would basically involve the cost of providing insulin (Afrezza). Academics make most of their money from publishing companies, who charge customers big $$$ for those studies. I know of at least one group of diabetes specialists in Japan who might be very interested, since they recently published a roundtable discussion around dozens of previous EIIT studies and are calling for a change in early diabetes treatment. #3 Same as #1
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Post by scottiemac on Jan 6, 2016 12:53:00 GMT -5
Can MNKD produce, market, and sell the product profitably with a 20% price cut? Does anybody know the all-inclusive cost of sales per unit versus was a 20% discount to managed care pricing would look like? Afrezza is not as efficient as injected insulin due to the amount of drug not absorbed via the lung, so there is more active pharmaceutical ingredient required to deliver an equivalent therapeutic dose, plus the additional cost of the device and delivery system. What are the real economics of that "wake up call"? "Afrezza is not as efficient as injected insulin due to the amount of drug not absorbed via the lung...." Huh? Someone explain that to me. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 6, 2016 13:03:40 GMT -5
Can MNKD produce, market, and sell the product profitably with a 20% price cut? Does anybody know the all-inclusive cost of sales per unit versus was a 20% discount to managed care pricing would look like? Afrezza is not as efficient as injected insulin due to the amount of drug not absorbed via the lung, so there is more active pharmaceutical ingredient required to deliver an equivalent therapeutic dose, plus the additional cost of the device and delivery system. What are the real economics of that "wake up call"? "Afrezza is not as efficient as injected insulin due to the amount of drug not absorbed via the lung...." Huh? Someone explain that to me. I think he means more insulin is needed then injectable. |
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Post by mnholdem on Jan 6, 2016 13:09:38 GMT -5
I think matt is making a point out the economics of manufacturing Afrezza, that it takes more units of TS insulin to be loaded into a cartridge than what is ultimately delivered into the blood stream, implying that Afrezza's COGS is higher to deliver the same units of insulin into the blood stream as injected insulin.
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Post by spiro on Jan 6, 2016 21:09:47 GMT -5
Spiro is a stock owning coward. When things go bad, he hides out. But Spiro is getting damned tired of hiding out. .Joeypotsandpans, Holderm Tripoley and others have it right on this thread.
Spiro here
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Post by savzak on Jan 6, 2016 21:29:52 GMT -5
Spiro is a stock owning coward. When things go bad, he hides out. But Spiro is getting damned tired of hiding out. .Joeypotsandpans, Holderm Tripoley and others have it right on this thread. Spiro here Perhaps the road to better sales and coverage is exactly as they've suggested. There's little doubt in my mind that Afrezza has multiple avenues to great success. The question is, how do we fund it. Are we to expect the cost slashing, tier 2 achievement to happen in the next 6 months to the point that sales are generated sufficient to establish a cash flow adequate to fund continued operations including required studies? There are any number of plans for achieving success for Afrezza but they all take time, a commodity we do not have much of. What we need is capital which translates to more time. How do we fund any of those plans without a cash infusion from Al, a major technosphere deal, or massive and painful dilution? From where will the capital come? |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 6, 2016 21:29:53 GMT -5
Spiro is a stock owning coward. When things go bad, he hides out. But Spiro is getting damned tired of hiding out. .Joeypotsandpans, Holderm Tripoley and others have it right on this thread. Spiro here Spiro I am curious if you spoke with any early adopters that flew out to San Diego. Obviously I know they signed an NDA but are they baffled on why SNY flew them out there? Maybe I have it wrong did SNY even fly them out there? |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 6, 2016 22:23:47 GMT -5
Spiro is a stock owning coward. When things go bad, he hides out. But Spiro is getting damned tired of hiding out. .Joeypotsandpans, Holderm Tripoley and others have it right on this thread. Spiro here Spiro I am curious if you spoke with any early adopters that flew out to San Diego. Obviously I know they signed an NDA but are they baffled on why SNY flew them out there? Maybe I have it wrong did SNY even fly them out there? executive decisions dont match and dictate with day to day operations of how the team works/plans - until the day of axing - principle applies to any corporation |
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Post by spiro on Jan 6, 2016 23:31:10 GMT -5
Spiro is uncertain about what will happen this year with MNKD. Because of the large amount of Afrezza inventory on hand, MNKD will most likely stop or slow production to a trickle, while furloughing most of the production and research staff to significantly reduce costs. MNKD will most likely reduce the wholesale costs of Afrezza by 40% or more to secure additional insurance coverage. . Spiro believes that MNKD will outsource it's Afrezza reps to a 2nd party Pharma, offering them 20 -25% commissions on sales. MNKD should within 2 to 3 months establish a small sales force of 15-20 people to target a particular state. Spiro believes that it is critical for MNKD to show steady Afrezza sales progress by late summer. If MNKD is successful in increasing sales significantly, Spiro believes that most of us will be able to start sleeping better by September 1, except for the people who sold all their shares today and yesterday.
Spiro here, it looks like the Fat Lady was on the stage and had a mike in her hand, but Joeypotsandpans has sealed her mouth with duct tape and tied her hands behind her back. Her next slim chance to sing on this stage will not be for at least 12 month's.
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Post by lakers on Jan 7, 2016 0:43:35 GMT -5
Spiro is uncertain about what will happen this year with MNKD. Because of the large amount of Afrezza inventory on hand, MNKD will most likely stop or slow production to a trickle, while furloughing most of the production and research staff to significantly reduce costs. MNKD will most likely reduce the wholesale costs of Afrezza by 40% or more to secure additional insurance coverage. . Spiro believes that MNKD will outsource it's Afrezza reps to a 2nd party Pharma, offering them 20 -25% commissions on sales. MNKD should within 2 to 3 months establish a small sales force of 15-20 people to target a particular state. Spiro believes that it is critical for MNKD to show steady Afrezza sales progress by late summer. If MNKD is successful in increasing sales significantly, Spiro believes that most of us will be able to start sleeping better by September 1, except for the people who sold all their shares today and yesterday. Spiro here, it looks like the Fat Lady was on the stage and had a mike in her hand, but Joeypotsandpans has sealed her mouth with duct tape and tied her hands behind her back. Her next slim chance to sing on this stage will not be for at least 12 month's. That's plan B. DeSisto will talk about plan A, C next Wed. |
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