Who will be the next partner and why?

[gz]

I thought we could have a thread where we get input with who the next partner(s) will be and why?  I'm sure plenty of people are speculating already but I'd like to see the reasons for ones thought of the next partner.

Example. Do you think XYZ Co. will partner with MNKD for Afrezza? Will XYZ Co. partner with MNKD for a Technosphere application (and what)? And why do you feel they will be the next partner? (Get into diabetes etc etc...)

[mnkdnewbie]

Novo just finished their fourth phase 3 trial on their once weekly Semaglutide for type 2.  It shows superior drop in hbA1c levels.  Maybe that paired with Afrezza mealtime would really be good?

[bearcatmax]

I won't take a stab but I hope that it is someone outside of the diabetes space currently who is looking to make a splash into it.   We need someone who sees "FDA approved product, viable if progressed correctly, and hungry to get into the diabetes space".  I think there will be a company out there who sees this and is willing to take this on and take on the cost of trials to get this product moving.   Needles are dated and it is only a matter of time before technology passes them by.   MNKD might not get as great of a deal, but I do believe they will get one.

[topcard]

Obviously, this is just my best guess, but I don't think there'll be a partner at all.

I suspect that, sometime before 7-4-16, a sale will be negotiated - either for Afrezza alone, or for all of MNKD... it will be at a 'bargain-basement' price, but I suspect we'll still get something more than $5, but less than $10 a share... neighborhood of $3 billion for the company... $1.5 billion for Afrezza alone.

It'll be somebody with deep pockets - somebody who can easily afford 'superiority' trials, high-end TV ads & the pharma-clout to get to PCPs and Endos en-masse.

So, one of these: GSK, Merk, J&J, Lily or Phizer... if I had to bet, it would be on Phizer... "Exubera done right", so-to-speak.

[bradleysbest]

Can you imagine being the company that has the money to buy Afrezza on the cheap 2-3 Billion knowing that Afrezza is FDA approved, great user reviews, NO commercials were done, ability to expand into other countries rather fast, will be proven to lower A1c, etc.... There has to be some BP or company that would like to get into the pharma business that could make a fortune with some basic effort. I would not sell TS unless wrapped up with Afrezza would bring in a much higher price.

[kc]

A company like TEVA who is trying to get into the Branded specialty market. Perhaps Mylan or Perigo.    Somebody will deep pockets can spend 2 to 3 billion and buy a winner.

[dictatorsaurus]

Jan 6, 2016 13:51:06 GMT -5 topcard said:

 if I had to bet, it would be on Phizer... "Exubera done right", so-to-speak.

Having spoken to a few Pfizer employees there's no way they're touching inhaled insulin again.

[Deleted]

Jan 6, 2016 13:51:06 GMT -5 topcard said:

Obviously, this is just my best guess, but I don't think there'll be a partner at all.

I suspect that, sometime before 7-4-16, a sale will be negotiated - either for Afrezza alone, or for all of MNKD... it will be at a 'bargain-basement' price, but I suspect we'll still get something more than $5, but less than $10 a share... neighborhood of $3 billion for the company... $1.5 billion for Afrezza alone.

It'll be somebody with deep pockets - somebody who can easily afford 'superiority' trials, high-end TV ads & the pharma-clout to get to PCPs and Endos en-masse.

So, one of these: GSK, Merk, J&J, Lily or Phizer... if I had to bet, it would be on Phizer... "Exubera done right", so-to-speak.

I WOULD BE PROFITABLE AT $5 SHARE



NO SHOT in hell they are bought out for $5. 

[bradleysbest]

I see this as kind of like a foreclosure on a property. The low ball hounds should be out sniffing around & create a little bidding war knowing what they will be getting. Hopefully there are options for MNKD (sell Afrezza or entire company, multiple possible partners).

[sccrbrg]

Problem is, if they just sell afrezza it probably won't mean anything for share price.

Sure, they'd have 1.5-2 billion cash on hand - but they'd go back to being a development company without a product and a still unproven platform. With the way that wall street has treated this stock thus far, I don't think they will value the cash at face value.

[dictatorsaurus]

Jan 6, 2016 14:11:41 GMT -5 bradleysbest said:

I see this as kind of like a foreclosure on a property. The low ball hounds should be out sniffing around & create a little bidding war knowing what they will be getting. Hopefully there are options for MNKD (sell Afrezza or entire company, multiple possible partners).

Problem is Mannkind has lost most of it's bargaining power with SNY out the door. 

Amplified effort should have been made for a complete sale long time ago.

[bradleysbest]

I wonder if SNY outbid others for the partnership back in the summer of 2014? If they were the only company then that could be a problem as others do not believe in Afrezza....

[mnkdmorelong]

The real hangup between MNKD and success is marketing/sales.  SNY represents traditional biopharma marketing/sales.  High cost; but guaranteed access to the doc and end user.  I hope to see MNKD use another marketing channel.  A low cost channel such that Afrezza can be priced low.  Think of what Amazon did to retailers.  

Using this new channel, I think MNKD can go it alone and control their destiny.

But....they still need financing to get them over the hump.

[kc]

Two of the links yesterday one from WSJ and one from LA times stated that Mannkind was investigating sale of Company or Afrezza.   The WSJ would not have reported that way unless they had knowledge of that fact.

Mannkind, Sanofi End Diabetes Drug Deal
DOW JONES & COMPANY, INC. 10:05 AM ET 1/5/2016
Symbol Last Price Change
MNKD 1.05<image003.png> -0.4 (-27.59%)
SNY 42.23<image003.png> +0.03 (+0.07%)
QUOTES AS OF 11:05:27 AM ET 01/05/2016
MannKind Corp. (MNKD) on Tuesday announced the termination of its licensing pact with Sanofi-Aventis in the U.S. for the development and sale of its inhaled diabetes medicine Afrezza and signaled that it might look to sell the drug.

Shares of the company tumbled 28% in early trading. Over the past three months, shares have dropped 67%, including Tuesday's decline.

MannKind (MNKD) said that it and Sanofi(SNY) would begin transition talks to return Afrezza to MannKind(MNKD) over the next three to six months, with the termination effective no later than July 4. As a result of squashed deal, MannKind(MNKD) said it is reviewing its strategic options for Afrezza. The evaluation of options typically include a full or partial sale.

The company struck the marketing deal with French drug company Sanofi(SNY) in August 2014. In its most recent quarterly earnings call with analysts and investors, then-Chief Executive Hakan Edstrom said MannKind(MNKD) was "disappointed with the growth of Afrezza sales during the first nine months of the year," pointing to insurance reimbursement issues and slow uptake. Mr. Edstrom stepped down as CEO in November.

Write to Lisa Beilfuss at [e-mail]

(END) Dow Jones Newswires
01-05-161105ET
Copyright (c) 2016 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

[matt]

Jan 6, 2016 13:51:06 GMT -5 topcard said:

Obviously, this is just my best guess, but I don't think there'll be a partner at all.

I agree with that part of your thesis; there will be no partner at all.  I disagree with the remainder though in that if a big pharma wanted to be in this space, they would be.  Many big pharmas, notably Pfizer, have made a conscious decision to exit metabolic disease therapeutics to focus on other potentially more rewarding opportunities (pain, oncology, neurology seem to be favorites).  Once you kill an entire therapeutic program and downsize the professionals out of your organization, it is very difficult both operationally and politically to reverse course.

And I think you will be shocked at the price companies will be willing to pay for these assets.  It won't be very much.