Post by mnkdmorelong on Jan 6, 2016 21:01:45 GMT -5
There are many on this Board who know the sales numbers quite well. I need your help.
What is underway now at MNKD is number crunching. Maybe we can peek into their world.
The follow scenario is predicated on MNKD going alone in marketing Afrezza. If a partner was found, they would share the profits and generally make it more difficult for MNKD to attain cash flow neutrality.
The current run rate of Afrezza sales is about $20 mln/yr. MNKD's loss for year 1 (9 months) was about $15 mln; implying a full year total loss of $57 mln for the enterprise. This loss included large training costs, typical RA costs, very little DTC, and nothing for the long term safety study. If MNKD lowers Afrezza prices by half, naturally losses would be greater if sales do not rise materially above $20 mln/yr. How much would sales have to rise for Afrezza to be cash flow positive? It seems to me that sales need to be $150 mln to make Afrezza work with lower prices.
We must then bring in Corporate MNKD who is burning cash at $60-80 mln per year. What would Afrezza sales have to be to cover these expenses also? My estimate is $300 mln/yr.
Is $300 mln/yr Afrezza sales possible? A year ago, this was a $1 bln/yr opportunity so the answer is yes.
The final and biggest question is how long will it take to ramp up to $300 mln/yr and now much cash does MNKD need to get to that point?
My guess is 3 years and $200 mln.
What are your guesses?
What is underway now at MNKD is number crunching. Maybe we can peek into their world.
The follow scenario is predicated on MNKD going alone in marketing Afrezza. If a partner was found, they would share the profits and generally make it more difficult for MNKD to attain cash flow neutrality.
The current run rate of Afrezza sales is about $20 mln/yr. MNKD's loss for year 1 (9 months) was about $15 mln; implying a full year total loss of $57 mln for the enterprise. This loss included large training costs, typical RA costs, very little DTC, and nothing for the long term safety study. If MNKD lowers Afrezza prices by half, naturally losses would be greater if sales do not rise materially above $20 mln/yr. How much would sales have to rise for Afrezza to be cash flow positive? It seems to me that sales need to be $150 mln to make Afrezza work with lower prices.
We must then bring in Corporate MNKD who is burning cash at $60-80 mln per year. What would Afrezza sales have to be to cover these expenses also? My estimate is $300 mln/yr.
Is $300 mln/yr Afrezza sales possible? A year ago, this was a $1 bln/yr opportunity so the answer is yes.
The final and biggest question is how long will it take to ramp up to $300 mln/yr and now much cash does MNKD need to get to that point?
My guess is 3 years and $200 mln.
What are your guesses?